As a counter example .... If most of your wins are of the 6-2 variety and most of your losses are of the 3-2 variety, the underlying stat of run differential may not be as meaningful as some would hope. An overly simplistic explanation for the above Astros specific scenario would be that the opposing team not using their best three bullpen pitchers to close a game when behind and the Astros big bats feasting on the backin of the other team's bullpen ... versus famine-ing against the best of the other team's bullpen in a close game. Again, your record is your record. 162 games is not a SSS. BTW I am sure that Luhnow will make significant changes in the roster construction to address these feat-or-famine issues.
But you still have to have more 6-2 wins (or wins, in general) than 3-2 losses for your run differential to be positive. One 6-2 victory is undone five 3-2 losses...
It's another Drelliich piece of garbage. He's, again, taking what Luhnow says out of context or assumes that Luhnow is telling him the whole story of their blueprint in mid-November. He's just a terrible writer.
Why? It shows that you have a high run differential, and that you're much closer to winning a lot more games than you are to losing a lot more games, meaning you need more marginal changes to improve your record. On the flipside, if you have the same record but win games 3-2 and lose games 6-2, then it shows you're much further away from truly being good. Run differential shows exactly what you want to see here, whereas the record was deceptive.
Peter Gammons is reporting on twitter that several sources tell him Aroldis Chapman may be moved by the end of the weekend. I know he is a Luhnow target so that may be something to watch over the next few days.
One door slammer at the end would be huge. It's not as if Gregerson was bad last season, but if you can upgrade the closer it also moves Greg to the 8th, which would give you a pretty damn good end of game tandem. See if you can turn one of the young arms (Appel, Feliz,VV) into a shutdown bullpen guy to go with them and then we really have something. I don't think we need some massive bullpen overhaul, but we need to add at least one hammer.
There are currently three open spots in the bullpen. How about Craig Kimbrel James Hoyt Oliver Perez (since Luhnow can't seem to quit him) to go along with L. Gregerson W. Harris P. Neshek J. Fields V. Velasquez (or S. Feldman)
Your record is your record, but run differential is always a better predictor of future results than a simple W/L record.
The Reds are about to open up the flood gates. Need a third baseman? Todd Frazier is available Need an outfielder with pop? Jay Bruce is now on the market. Need a closer with a fastball over 104 MPH? Bid on Chapman The Astros clearly need a third baseman, what would you give for Frazier? Is he a massive upgrade? Does it bother you that he has an all or nothing approach? Do you bite on Jay Bruce if he isn't too expensive in trade? Do you slot him at first and the OF (He has said he would be comfortable at either spot). How much do you give up for only 1 year of Chapman?
I dont see Bruce as that big of an upgrade over Tucker. Bruce hit .217 and .226 last two years, with OBPs of .281 and .294. Not the biggest Frazier fan either, his drop of post ASB was dramatic...but who knows, maybe he will mash at MMP.
I am not a big fan of Bruce either. 3-4 years ago when he was hitting 30-35 home runs, I could see the appeal. At this point he is very limited. Frazier has some appeal because of his position. He has quite a bit of power, but he again, strikes out a lot and does not walk.
Aroldis Chapman 2015 66.1 IP 2.7 WAR What would 3 WAR for one year cost you? For camparison, here is Craig Kimbrel 2015 59.1 IP 1.3 WAR (career average is ~2.5 WAR) What would 4-8 WAR (and $37 million) salary cost you for three years? <hr /> For Chapman and some A- prospect flier, how about Jake Marisnick (2.2 WAR) plus a high end prospect (#7 Martes or #8 Fisher) plus some MLB talent that has to go (Lowrie or Carter or Gatis or Singleton).
They need a set up man badly, not so much a closer. But you're right, a closer would benefit them by moving Gregerson down.
Are you kidding?......... I would do that deal six days a week and 53 times on Sunday. Why are you overvaluing Martes? Marisnick, on this team, is a 4th OF; valauble - but easily replaceable. So you're essentially passing on an elite closer to roll the dice on a single, one-in-a-million pitching prospect?...... That makes no sense to me. I guarantee you, it is... infinity-times easier to find another top 10 pitching prospect with no Major League experience than it is to find Aroldis Chapman.
Drellich said we talked to TB about Jake McGee and Boxberger. McGee would be a low key great pickup, Boxberger not so much.
