Certainly - but you extend your window of contending by another 5 years. Or, if you do have a younger guy to replace Dallas in 5 years, then you can rinse and repeat. That's how you manage to remain a contender and retain flexibility to improve your team on the fly. It's certainly an uncapped league, but that does not mean teams have unlimited payrolls. Even the Yankees recently started trying to trim their payroll because it got out of control. They are also a good example of a team signing FAs to long term deals in order to compete now, and then routinely getting stuck with unproductive players later in their careers. The primary difference is that they were able to absorb those terrible deals for the most part because their payroll can be so much higher than anyone else.
Finding another Kuechel isn't as easy as you seem to think it is. The reason the Yankees are trimming payroll is George died.
No farm system is able to sustain being elite for a really long time. There are ebbs and flows. You need a balance. You keep the minor league players you think are going to really contribute and then jettison the others for controllable assets. If you deal a majority of your minor league talent, you will ultimately end up overpaying for talent at the big league level in free agency or not winning. Really it is a case by case scenario.
I agree Frazier would be a nice addition, but I wouldn't clear the farm for him. He's due 7MM next season and is then arbitration eligible, but I would be hesitant because of his post All-Star break struggles (.220/.274/.390 compared to .284/.337/.585 pre-ASB). I know this is an unpopular opinion, especially with Reed coming up, but I'd rather acquire Votto. Votto is the perfect 2-hole hitter for this lineup, adding more stability than would Frazier.
Exactly; once you've built your nucleus, you're not going to need your system to churn out 5-6 players a year; take where the Astros are right now: as of today, we're essentially looking to the minors to shore up one position (1B) + pitching (as will always be the case). (And it might possibly be two positions, if Moran makes noise at 3B.) As long as you're consistently - and successfully - replenishing the system, you can trade a Phillips or a Nottingham because there's always a Cameron or (insert name) down the road. I think fans, generally, overvalue prospects. Specifically, because the Astros forced us to focus so much on their prospects (because it beat focusing on the dreck they were rolling out at MMP), we way overvalue them. If Colorado offers Gonzalez, or Cincinnati makes Chapman available... is someone really going to argue the Astros are better off with the 3-6 prospects it might take to land those guys than they would be with Gonzalez and Chapman on the ML roster? That's insane (IMO). Now, what's the quickest way to endanger your ability to replenish the farm? Signing too many (overpriced - MO) free agents. I think the draft is the valve you have to keep wiiiiiiiiide open.
He's due $212MM through the year 2024, when he'll be 40 and very likely a shell of his former self. He's the exact kind of deal I hope the Astros stay as far away from as humanly possible. I mean... I honestly don't think I'd take him if the Reds were willing to literally give him to us for nothing...
Agreed... but very few teams year-to-year have an obvious window of contention that lies before the Astros now. The Rays had those windows in the late 2000's... but payroll restraints prevented them from maxing out those teams. The Phillies had a similar window (with young talent all getting good at the same time)... and they did max out payroll/acquired players via trades that pushed them over the edge. I'm not saying to throw around money irresponsibly just to spend... I'm saying to maximize the current window by possibly adding prime players to current young/prime players. Saving money now for possible extensions and re-signings in 4-5 years traverses a host of unknowns, the most of which is that if this current nucleus doesn't go all the way within the next 4-5 years, there's a high likelihood that they won't all be kept together anyways
Yeah, I realize Votto has an exorbitant contract. A prerequisite to picking him up--in my mind--would be having CIN pick up a significant portion of that deal. If CIN wants to rebuild, they are going to have to consider Votto a sunk cost. They'll have to move him, and they'll have to eat a portion of that contract...its just a question of how much. I think HOU, out of all suitors, has the 1) farm depth and 2) payroll, to best pair with CIN.
That's totally dependent on how their current high priced players age though.... They are paying Wainwright $20 million/year for the next 5 years, with one of those years already lost to injury. They're also playing Molina $15 million/year and he will be unlikely to ever play a full season again. Matt Holliday has been a great signing for them, but he's still got one more $17 million dollar season on the books at age 36. Granted, those extensions were no-brainers when they were signed as all were among the best in the game (and some still have some productive years left).... just saying that the Cardinals do spend money, and sometimes they don't always get full value for it.
[rQUOTEr]Houston is weighing its corner infield situation, as Chris Carter and Luis Valbuena were among their all-or-nothing set. Napoli may make sense for them ... Jed Lowrie is said to be available ... Folks expect free agent lefty Scott Kazmir to go elsewhere ... The three lefties in Houston's pen -- Tony Sipp, Joe Thatcher and Oliver Perez -- are all free agents. So they seek replacements. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer...eye-greinke-price-murphy-utley-more-mlb-notes[/rQUOTEr]
It is not at all obvious to me that the Astros window is now. In 2015 after their fast start, the Astros played 500 ball. After their fast start the Astros upgraded their roster with Correa, McCullers, GoGo, Fiers, and Kazmir. That upgraded roster yielded a 500 record.
The Astros are young team, have a lot of prospects close to the majors, and had bad sequencing with hits last season. All those are indicate Astros are likely better next season than this past season. This past season, they were a playoff team. There is a lot of variability in baseball so nothing is guaranteed, but Astros have a very good chance of making playoffs next year. The said, they likely have a good chance for quite a few years to come and shouldn't short change the next few years for 2016 or vice versa.
Why do so many people say that "if you take away this stretch, they were a .500 club". That stretch counted, it wasn't imaginary. That's the reason they play so many damn games, so the cream gets there. If you think the Astros were a fraud, you are very much in the minority. If anything the team underachieved quite a bit when looking at the advanced numbers.
Not discounting the entire last year's season. The Astros played well enough to get into the playoffs. Projecting for next season, assuming the core returns and lost FAs are replaced with equivalents, I think it is entirely fair to say the Astros may very well be a 500 team. That is not being negative that is just projecting their level of play from the majority of last year. BTW I think it is in Luhnow's master plan to field a better team next season. I think that the roster construction will be significantly changed to reach that target. Guessing Luhnow wants a 90 win team that is in playoff contention.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a>’ Carter poss target for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Orioles?src=hash">#Orioles</a> if Davis leaves. HOU could upgrade 1B or patch until Reed is ready. Carter, Gattis arb-eligible.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/664534483518021633">November 11, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
