I'd hang myself in front of Tom Herman so he wont forget the face I make because he left to coach TU football
I'm going to skin and scalp myself, then leave my shell on Dedman Drive, when Herman leaves for UT in the second quarter of the AAC Championship.
I just don't think football alone is gonna get us into a P5. Basketball attendance is like middle school level attendance.
Heres the thing though. Even if UH were admitted into a P5 conference, there are some jobs that are inherently better than others. Even if UH could pay more, UT and ATM are still more attractive destinations. Why? Boosters, fan base, facilities, recruiting. The top jobs off the top of my head are, in no order: Trojans, Bama, LSU, Florida, Texas, Ohio State, FSU, Oregon, Georgia, ATM, Notre Dame, Michigan and probably Tennessee. Now if he wants to be the guy that spends his career building up UH and staying there long term, more power to him. Theres a lot of respect to be had for coaches who do that type of thing out of loyalty and affection for their university. But those type of coaches are rare and few and far between.
I agree with you to a point. One thing to consider is the shelf life of a coach at places like UT and TAMU. Couple that with the red tape and competing booster interests that he has complained about at Ohio State, and that should give him pause. Further he would have more power and control at UH. Ultimately, if he is successful at UH, he will probably ultimately leave; it just might not be for a school like Georgia or Tennessee, but a particular specific job he covets like Ohio State. Truthfully, the days of Paterno are over. Coaches move around, UH just wants to avoid a Briles/Sumlin scenario.
This is looking at things through an MBA-style lens. It's not a simple equation of X amount of fans + Y amount of money + Z quality of resources = satisfaction with job. Herman has 3 grade school age children and has spent the majority of his adult life recruiting and coaching in Texas. Does he want to leave his stomping ground and uproot his family for a relatively minor raise, shinier facilities, or bigger crowds? If he desires the ability to compete more fairly for national championships, sure. March on down to College Station or Austin. Those are elite level jobs. However, there's really not that much separation in terms of support, facilities, and finances going from job #60 to job #20 or so. I see it breaking down into 4 tiers. There's a tier of job that is simply elite, the Texas, USCs, Notre Dames of the world. Then there's a whole bunch grouped together in the upper half that all have one significant disadvantage or two. Then there's the bottom half which have multiple disadvantages. Then lastly there's the dregs that are basically completely moribund. What UH has going for it is that a LOT of the "building up" work has already been done. 15 years ago it was in tier 4. Literally a program that might have been disbanded. Now it's solidly in tier 2. New facilities, a committed administration, and a fertile recruiting ground. The only thing that is left is P5 inclusion. A big task, but the prep work has been done. UH will never be elite, and that's fine. But I think as long as they're in a P5 conference and therefore have a level playing field to compete on, it's as good job a tier 2 job as you would ever find in the country. A job that no one would leave except if they just had either a dream to be at a top 10, behemoth program or desired to get paid something like 5+MM a year. Those are popular desires for head coaches, but not everyone is dead set on either of those objectives. For some, quality of life comes into play.
Agree with this, with one caveat. I do believe it is possible for them to compete for a national title based on the recruiting potential and with the right coach. I DON'T think they will be able to do it year after year like those select few programs.
In a P5 conference I agree. That's basically the level of competitiveness that most of the tier 2 programs have. You could see the inherit bias against the G5 in the CFP poll having Baylor way the hell up there with UH at the ass-bottom despite having almost identical SOS to date.
Herman is not long for the city of Houston. He is an Urban Meyer disciple and will jump to the next level as soon as possible. But I have to say, Briles, Sumlin and Herman, whoever is hiring head football coaches at U of H sure knows how to find talent.
Stoops pretty much forced us to hire Sumlun from what I remember we were going to hire Klingler and Pardee.
Beating out two Big 12 South teams ranked in the top 15 playing on network TV? Yeah buddy. This is why the B12 will relent and let UH in.
You get that this was the rating in Houston only right? Why wouldn't UofH do well in Houston? Kinda sad that they weren't the highest rated game actually.
Good post and I agree with most of it. This is why Im saying I dont think he would leave unless one of the blue blood programs came calling, which is a possibility especially next year moving forward. But having some instability in coaching at the 2 big time state universities is not a good thing for UH. About his job satisfaction, I dont think anyone can truly speak on that but Herman himself. The raise he would receive wouldnt be minor. If UH could offer him, lets say, 3 million, the big time programs can offer 4.5 or 5. That is a huge raise. And if one those programs is UT or ATM, the move wouldnt be that huge for his family. He might love it at UH and want to stay there forever. But without being in a P5 conference its going to be difficult to consistently be a national contender. Also, what the big boys have got going for them is that most can literally give a blank check when it comes to filling out a staff. Even if Herman is the type of guy to stick it at out at UH, if they are winning, his staff is going to get poached off. With a school like USC or Texas this will also happen, except you can pretty much handpick your next coordinators money be damned (to a degree). He has done a fantastic job in recruiting, and may pull in the most surprising class of the year. But OU and Texas having been trending down. Going forward if Texas and OU get to where they expect to be, recruiting is going to be much more difficult throughout Texas. And if UH does join a P5 like the Pac, you can expect more and more kids being taken by Cal, UCLA, USC and Oregon. This is why it is inherently more difficult at a 2nd Tier school, and why most coaches will move upwards. You have a chance to immediately operate on the national level and cement your legacy one of college footballs blue blood programs.
We've been told forever that the Big 12 doesn't need TV help in Houston. Losing the ratings battle when you're fielding two undefeated programs ranked in the top 15 playing on network TV (in the same time slot, no less) says otherwise. Very promising for the Coogs.
