That's fine.... just don't be surprised/dissapointed/apoplectic if they're in negotiations with at least one top free agent pitcher, or that they end up offering Keuchel an extension similar in length/money to what other top pitchers have gotten. Windows of opportunity for contention are not to be taken lightly.... no matter how much it seems likely that they're going to be playing for pennants in 2024. And, I already said if they sign a pitcher to a 7 year deal... its not the end of the world given that for 4-5 years, they're not paying their other very productive players all that much.
I couldn't care less about "negotiations;" signing them is the concern. Why would I have an issue with this? *He's* the primary reason I think dumping $25+MM/year into another pitcher's lap would be a foolish use of what are (relatively) limited resources. And they won't offer him market value because, unlike a free agent, they have some leverage with Keuchel right now.
Two of the three wouldn't even make the Astros' rotation. I'm not sure why anyone would trade for them. This, again, demonstrates the fantasy of trying to acquire an ace pitcher on a 3-4 year deal.
They kicked in the money to get someone to give up the prospects in exchange for the money and Hamels's contract. I should have only quoted "This was exactly the reason that Hamels was so attractive, when many on here were talking about his contract as a negative and preferring a rental." As a representative of the "many", we did caveat it assuming Phillies didn't kick in money. We didn't want the Astros to pay Hamels's value in cash and in prospects. Hamels is on a good contract. it just wasn't attractive enough for the Phillies to get what they wanted without giving up a lot of cash.
The comparison was in trading for a rental like Kazmir vs a longer term guy like Hamels. If we sign another Hamels-type guy now to replace Kazmir, we still gave up both the cash and prospects anyway.
That is why I find Johnny Cueto an interesting target. He was the Astros first choice at the deadline, and there is a belief that he can only get a 5 year deal. While the Astros would prefer a 3-4 year contract, they may stretch it to 5 if they decide they want to get an ace. You can get James Shields for nothing of substance other than taking on that contract. There have even been some saying the Padres would eat some of the deal for a good prospect or two.
Well, you did say how giving a starting pitcher 7 years is probably not a wise decision... just saying that its probably what they'll have to do to retain Keuchel long-term anyways.
Nope. I never said giving "a starting pitcher" 7 years was unwise... I said giving Price or Grienke (ie a *free agent* pitcher) seven years was unwise, in large part because, as I said in my original response, "they already have an ace." Said ace = Keuchel.
Apparently your context is just not as contextual as you're making it out to be... anyways, I still feel its important to point out that for the next 4-5 years, while this team doesn't "have" to spend big money on any of its core players, they should be able to spend big elsewhere (and starting pitching should not be excluded from that consideration).
Not the same. Astros gave up prospects for Kazmir based on his expected production minus his 2015 contract plus a little surplus trade deadline markup (though smaller than most). If the Astros use cash to sign FA pitcher, no prospects would be used to acquire him. Kazmir didn't really produce. Deadline deals are a risk, but it wasn't that big a risk. At beginning of season, rumors were the Phillies wanted 2 top prospects and wouldn't kick in money. First post from the Astros Random Trade Thread... "Astros get: Cole Hamels Phillies get: Mark Appel, Lance McCullers, Jon Singleton and Andrew Aplin" The actual deal for Hamels wasn't bad. I didn't see anything close proposed here or elsewhere close to final deal until close to deadline when the sellers market turned to a buyers market.
Here, Nick, let me help you by pasting the *entire* quote (emphasis added)... Are you unaware of what the word "externally" means, Nick?
External vs. internal... still don't see why it matters. Either you feel pitchers are worth 7 years/200 million, or they're not. Just because Keuchel is already here, and isn't really due to be paid that for another 3 years anyways, does it make it any less worse of a deal? Again, I'm looking for help now....vs. 3-4 years from now... if it all works out, it will be a great problem to have. If it doesn't work out, well we're all well versed to what a rebuild/fire-sale would entail. I'll end this back and forth Thursday conversation (which has definitely helped pass the time) with the notion that this front office likely never wants to have to give out a contract to a pitcher of more than 3 years (Hamels exception included)... but they also understand the price of doing business and competing is by paying market value (whether its by years of a contract or whether its by highly touted prospects in a trade). In the end, is giving a pitcher 7 years (without giving up prospects) really that much worse than giving up potential viable prospects for an extra 3 years of salary relief?
This was you, a few months ago, in arguing against a trade for Hamels: What's changed that you went from not wanting anyone over 3 years to being OK with a 7 year deal?
What changed is the front office actually going balls in for Hamels (and Gomez, Fiers, Kazmir). They've gone from a slow rebuild to attempting to maximize the MLB roster ASAP... that and being as close as we really were. Makes me more antsy, I guess for actual success. See my post above... I myself felt that this front office was on the same page with the 3 year max pitching deals... but as everybody has made it abundantly clear, they aren't going to get anybody worth anything for 3 years. Hell, I'd still be reluctant to give Keuchel more than 3-4 years of free agent money, meaning I'd hope they work out a 7 year extension NOW rather than later... but that would also limit some of the flexibility they have now.
FanGraphs released their top 50 free agency predictions came out today. They had the Astros netting: Kazmir (3/42MM), Ryan Madsen (3/15MM) and...drumroll...Chris Davis (5/130MM)... Rasmus went 3/42MM (same as Kazmir) to the Indians. Sipp to Giants on 2/10MM. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-top-50-free-agent-predictions/
