The top tier pitchers like Greinke & Price will easily be able to demand 5 yr deals between 25-30 mil. So you're looking at 125-150 mil deals. The Dodgers will definitely offer this to Greinke and the Yankees and Red Sox should be in the mix as well. Anyone thinking the 'Stros are going to lay out this kind of jack is smoking the crack pipe IMO. Would they possibly do a 25-30 for 3 yrs? Possibly.
There are never any pitchers that can command $25MM/yr that only sign for 4 years in free agency. The 4 years guys are a lower tier pitcher that can't command that type of money. The $25MM guys command more years. This was exactly the reason that Hamels was so attractive, when many on here were talking about his contract as a negative and preferring a rental. It's pretty rare to find a guy that's available for trade with that type of setup and is still pitching well.
No; however only 4-5 teams basically have infinite money. Astros aren't in that group. I want Crane to spend as much money as he's willing to spend on the best talent available at that cost while not mortgaging the future or short changing the present. Every dollar spent spent in a way that isn't cost conscious limits the ability to get better talent on the field provided stupid decisions don't get rewarded more than normal. Crane will spend more to win more, but he has his limits. Unfortunately, stupid decisions work out a lot in baseball short term. When they don't work out, you have multi-year rebuild projects. I'd rather the Astros Front Office accept their limitations and build a team that will likely win a World Series around them than to just blindly hope someone out performs a contract or every pitcher they sign turns out to have the health of Nolan Ryan.
We are building a team to win a World Series. We have a team good enough to win it all. The Mets proved having 5 great young pitchers is great. The 2000s A's never won anything, and continued to be the same even without the big 3. The 90s Braves had 3 HOF starters, and only managed 1 title for their troubles. The 2005 Astros depended on Brandon Backe. They will explore all options, but they have no real need to upgrade the rotation that finished with the 2nd best ERA in the American League, and then followed it up with a great postseason. I think they will stand pat in the rotation unless someone is injured, or someone in the rotation is traded away. I don't believe in spending money just to spend money. Most quality players will want long-term deals that will affect our flexibility beyond this season. That is perfectly fine if the player is worth it throughout the deal, but I don't see it with the top level pitchers. My biggest wants are shut down closer and a 3B. I'm not optimistic we will find a 3B. Depending on the terms, I'd be interested in Chris Davis (with the intention of trading Carter and/or Gattis), but am willing to roll the dice with Reed/White. I'd be interested in Heyward as well.
Phillies ended up taking back a significant contract want for a replacement level player. Essentially Phillies kicked in 30 million dollars to make Hamels's contract attractive. Chris Carter could fetch a good prospect with Astros kicking in 30 million dollars.
Again, you're getting jaded by the small sample size of the playoffs. Yes, the 2000's A's never won anything.... but they had a good enough team to win it all. Same goes for the 90's Braves. The bottom line is you have to maintain a team that's good enough to even get to the playoffs... and the easiest/most effective way to do that is to maintain quality starting pitching. The Astros had the best starting pitching ERA in the AL this year... it was the biggest reason why they were where they were. I'd like to keep it there, and improving the rotation isn't just "spending money to spend money".
Yes, we all know that. The bottom line was that they were willing to add that sort of player to improve the pitching staff... and they can/should/will continue to try and improve things. As far as finding those guys, it would have to be somebody already on their 6-7 year deal who's on a team not going anywhere fast.... you'd have to trade to get them too. So, you then weigh the price of giving up prospects for a less years-left pitcher... or signing a pitcher outright for more years.
And yet, now he's exactly the type of player that we're saying the Astros should be targeting - even without the 30 million dollars. The problem is that those players don't exist. The Phillies didn't have to kick in the money to get someone to take Hamels. They kicked in the money to get someone to give up the prospects in exchange for him.
The problem is that those guys are extremely rare. Most of the guys in the latter part of those deals tend to suck, which is why the deals are bad in the first place and why those teams are going nowhere fast. Can you think of examples of pitchers that fit the bill right now? 3-4 years, $80-$100MMish left on contract, terrible team going nowhere, but still pitching like an ace and likely to for a few more years?
CC Sabathia available... LOL. James Shields probably is as well...as is Rick Porcello. They'll all require prospects to be had.
And its part of the reason why I wouldn't outright dismiss looking at free agent pitching options... I'm not worried about the big money for the first 4-5 years of that deal, when this team should be contending year-in/year-out. If they choose to avoid all long-term pitchers at all costs.... including re-signing their own guys to long-term deals... it puts a pretty big burden on the farm system to develop that sort of pitching talent.
You're having an argument with yourself; the rest of us are discussing the viability of them specifically taking on huge contracts for starting pitchers, not "any" huge contracts. The consensus - right or wrong - is that the Astros need to shore up the bullpen and upgrade one/all of LF/3B/1B/DH before they address the rotation. If they pursue, and sign, a Grienke or Price, it both limits their ability to address what are (perceived to be) bigger needs *and* it potentially handicaps longer-term financial flexibility to address keeping the nucleus together.
Nah, i was originally answering your question as to whether or not the Astros even value starting pitching.... and yes, they still do despite McCullers having one playoff start, and frankly given what they currently have they could stand to get better. It doesn't have to be all/nothing... signing a starting free agent pitcher now (giving him what Hamels would have had) likely doesn't preclude making other moves for now... or the next 4-5 years. Yes, long-term flexibility gets hampered... and then even further down the road, you have to come up with money to sign whoever you want to keep from the homegrown players... which in and of itself inevitably leads teams to go into a rut due to most of those homegrown players not living up to their first free agency deals. The window is most definitely open now... luckily the front office has made it known that they don't intend on wasting this opportunity or just sitting back and waiting for prospects to possibly develop some day.
We already have the quality starting pitching. The only person we are losing from the staff is Kazmir, who struggled, and we are gaining months of Fiers and McCullers.
Max Scherzer set the market last year: 7/$210MM. Price/Grienke (ETA) won't settle for anything less, in terms of years and dollars.
The Present Value was measured at $191.4M given the deferred nature. Edit: But I expect they will get $200M. Dodgers will pay Grienke, and the Yankees desperately need a starter.
The Nats actually plan on paying him well after he's done playing.... that factored into the total dollar figure. He's only getting 7 years/105 million while he's playing for the Nats. Thus, there definitely could be a less years/dollar deal signed this off-season by a top name pitcher... provided they want to see the money while they're actually playing.
Its actually $105 million in deferred money.... $105 million now.... still not a terrible deal for the team given that money today is worth a lot more than money in the future.
To me, Feldman, Fiers and even McHugh all upgradeable. We'll see where the rotation shakes out with VV, Feliz and Appel also in the mix. Certainly better than talking about Wojo, Straily, Oberholtzer and Peacock as being for-sure cogs in a rotation.
....enough to pursue Price/Grienke, Nick. That's the context. I wasn't asking if they, generally, value starting pitching. Of course they do. You're continuing to answer a question I never asked. How many more times do you want us to point out that no starting pitcher worth $20MM+/year is going to sign for 4-5 years, Nick? Here is a list of the five highest paid pitchers in baseball - please note what they all have in common (hint: think Brad Pitt/Morgan Freeman) so you'll stop engaging this crazy idea that top-line free agent pitchers are going to entertain, let alone accept below-market contract lengths from the Houston Astros. Again, you're having an argument with yourself... most of us want - and expect - the team to look externally for ways to improve. Some of us just think doing so at a clip of 7/$200+MM for a pitcher is not the smartest way to do it.
