I would give Lucroy 5 mil more than Castro makes in a heartbeat. Perfect 2 hole hitter and a defensive upgrade over Castro. The only risk is the injury factor. Is an all star catcher worth 5 mil more than what Castro makes and he's signed up for the next 2 years. Speaking of that I think Castro is going to make around 6 mil after arb. What does Lucroy's contract look like?
Every team, at every instant, views starting pitching as a priority. Is it a $25-30MM/year priority, though? And is it a bigger priority than the bullpen and/or offense? Because if you're going to drop $25-30MM/year on a starting pitcher, that severely limits what you can do to improve the bullpen and offense. At the deadline, they knew McCullers and Valasquez were likely going to spend time in the minors/pen. They also had a pitching staff that was decidedly short on pennant race/postseason experience. Kazmir had it - but it had been six years since he'd been to the playoffs. Feldman pitched in the World Series four years ago. Otherwise, Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers, Valasquez and Fiers had a combined zero playoff starts. Both of those dynamics are (likely*) no longer in place. IOW, I think it was a greater concern on July 31 than it is n November 5. (* I'm hedging on the innings issue; I'm sure it won't be as strict - but I also doubt they'll just turn McCullers/Valasquez/any other young pitcher completely loose.)
I don't know a lot about him; haven't seen him play much. Was he hurt in 2014? I'd be concerned that he seems a little inconsistent. In four full seasons in Baltimore, his OB%: .326, .370, .300, .361. And he's struck out 749 times, including an astounding 208 last year. His walk totals have steadily improved, though (37, 72, 60, 84). Feels like a rich man's Chris Carter; too boom or bust, for me. But, like I said, I don't know anything other than his numbers.
This. If Luhnow knew at the trade deadline that McCullers would pitch well in the playoffs, he would not have been looking for more SP help like Hamels. Without doing a damn thing, the Astros starting rotation for next season will be 1. Kuechel 2. McCullers 3. McHugh 4. Fiers 5. Cast of thousands: Feldman or Velasquez or Straily or Oberholtzer or Peacock or Appel That is a very solid starting rotation. Could it better? Sure, add Price and it will be better. Could it win 90+ games and make the playoffs again? Yes, but the path will be easier with better bats and closer.
He is a very rich man's Chris Carter. He's definitely an improvement over Carter, but he is similarly streaky. The big difference is he's shown he can hit for average better than Carter, and is a better 1B. He would be a terrible 3B, so he'd most likely be at 1B primarily for us.
That's quite the presumptuous take... The only thing that really changed is McCullers pitched in the playoffs (along with Feldman, Kazmir, and VV all having injured or disappointing endings to the season). You can take it a step further and say that McHugh may be who he is... which is still very good, but not that #1 or #2 type guy that this team still needs to go along with Kuechel. Also, pretty sure Luhnow wasn't banking on McCullers falling flat as well when he went after Hamels (meaning, what McCullers does should have little to no impact on continuing to improve the rotation). I'm pretty confident in saying that they'd still go after a pitcher at 4/25 million per if they became available (either via trade or free agency)... and if they have to add years and/or money, it would be dependent on who it actually is. Standing pat on the rotation as is should be the worst case scenario (which isn't all that bad).
Do you honestly think Luhnow expected McCullers to be bad? They were dead-set confident in putting him in the rotation in critical games down the stretch. Luhnow also probably figured that Feldman may not make it, VV wasn't quite ready, and McHugh still has question marks.... all of which ended up coming true, so plenty of reasons then (and reasons now) to look for rotation upgrades.
McCullers was well past his previous IP mark. If not for the playoff chase, Lunhow would have shut him down in September. No one would have surprised if McCullers faded at the end of last season with a tired arm. As with any rookie phenom pitcher, the second or third time through the league and the league tends to catch up with the phenom. No one would have been surprised if McCullers started to get hit more, even though his stuff was still strong. Also no one would have been surprised if rookie McCullers succumbed to the high pressure of the September and October games. I expected Luhnow to think that McCullers was heading into uncharted waters, during the playoff chase and playoffs.
Agreed on all fronts... and even with all that knowledge, that's still only a 2015-specific concern regarding McCullers, that didn't preclude them from being ready to take on a pitcher for the next 4 years. The front office is probably smart enough to have anticipated all of that... yet still had confidence in him that goes beyond looking at just how young he is or how many innings he's pitched. The bottom line is that the front office is unlikely to stand pat on acquiring a starter (at a cost) if the years/money works out..... its still a priority.
Yeah; so did Keuchel, McHugh and Fiers... Yeah, I'm pretty sure they'd go after a pitcher for 4 years, too - which $25-30MM/year pitcher do you think is going to settle for 4 years?...... Spending $25-30MM/year on a pitcher isn't the only way to bolster the rotation. They did pretty well adding a guy like Fiers, frankly. They have an ace; they have a potential ace. And they have a nucleus of young players that are 4-5 years away from being financial concerns. Torpedoing any degree of flexibility to sign a pitcher for $200+MMM (which is what it is going to take; again, Scherzer is the standard, and he got 7/$210MM) is an unnecessary mistake, IMO.
Somewhat ontopic: <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Report: Astros, Dynamo took money to honor troops <a href="https://t.co/hFLpcmli1m">https://t.co/hFLpcmli1m</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/HoustonChron">@houstonchron</a></p>— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/status/662033981869703168">November 4, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
2 out of those 3 are still "upgradeable", IMO. McHugh/Fiers/Feldman are all reliable starters... but they do all have a potential lower ceiling than what Keuchel/Hamels or McCullers have to offer. It won't be a first-time free agent.... or maybe not a free agent at all (much like Hamels, take the long contract off a team looking to rebuild with prospects). The bottom line is that will the Astros explore those types of players/deals? Of course they will. Sure, you can trade for somebody... like Fiers/Hamels... but still may have to pony up the cash to make it work. Who's torpedoing flexibility? Who's throwing out 7 year deals? You asked if they still thought starting pitching was a priority... and the answer has to be a resounding yes given what they were willing to give up for Hamels, and how relatively little the end of the season performances of McCullers/Fiers/McHugh/Feldman/VV should really change that priority one way or the other. Sure, its not "critical" they upgrade the rotation... its not their biggest need... but I still see areas they can improve on there. They also went after Hamels AFTER they acquired Kazmir... and AFTER it was clear that McCullers was not overwhelmed by MLB hitters, when many thought starting pitching would no longer be their biggest need.
Looking at: FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 82 Free Agents. The proposed deals are WAGs but somewhat consistent between the different players. The super star FAs will probably get more for longer. Looking at Chris Davis: Chris Davis (1B) Age: 29 Recent WAR: 5.6 Proposed Deal: 5 x $20 million Compared against: Jason Heyward (OF) Age: 25 Recent WAR: 6.0 Proposed Deal: 8 x $23 million Alex Gordon (3B/OF) Age: 31 Recent WAR: 2.8 Proposed Deal: 5 x $18 million IIRC the going rate for WAR is $3-4 million per WAR. Gordon is looking to get overpaid, while Davis and Heyward are not. Given his age, Heyward might the BIG winner in the FA sweepstakes this offseason. I would not be surprised if Heyward landed a 10 year x $25 million contract.
Yes, within the context of chasing a Price or Grienke, Nick... I don't think money is an issue, per se - years are. *That's* why Hamels was a risk they were willing to take; it was a 3-year deal with a club-option fourth. Even at four years, it's a much club-friendlier deal than Scherzer's, or the deals Price and Grienke are going to get. There is NO available pitcher - worth $25-30MM/year - who is going to take a 4-year deal. If you want to be in the Price/Grienke sweepstakes, Scherzer is the baseline, and he received 7 years - *that's* who's throwing out seven-year deals.
Starting pitching is starting pitching... if you value it, and you desire improvement, a competent front office will consider all available options. In that case, you also have consider when the Astros best chance to contend is.... is it going to be now, or 3 years from now when those 7 year pitchers are probably going to be available on 4 year deals. Also, with those 3 additional years... you're getting a pitcher who's 3 years younger than Hamels. (Hamels had also signed a 6-7 year deal). Not saying they'll offer those types of contracts to anybody (position players included)... but if they feel this is their best time go for it (which I believe everybody seems to believe it is)... then go for it. I don't think they'll be making short-changing/budgetary type moves if they truly believe this is the time to strike... if anything, these next 4 years are where they have the utmost financial flexibility, when their best core players are still making very little.
Sure, you can upgrade the rotation, but doing so at a huge cost seems a poor use of resources, when we have bigger needs. The Royals have proven you don't need a great rotation to win in the playoffs. And really, so did the Giants last year. Heck, our rotation was good enough to have beaten the Royals in 4 straight.
FA WAR value is about $9M last I saw. Those WAR numbers are also only for last year. Gordon missed a 1/3 of the season, so his WAR is down. In 2014, Davis had a 0.8 fWAR. It definitely wouldn't be shocking to see Heyward get a deal like that. Players rarely hit FA so young.
So, are we building teams specifically for the crapshoot playoffs now? You can just as easily say that the Mets proved that a rotation is pretty damn important... as did the 2005 Astros, the 2000's A's, the 90's Braves, etc. Again, they're going to explore all avenues to get better... I just don't see them standing pat with the rotation, which was the entire premise of my post. As far as the "resources" go, wouldn't you agree that if they were going to spend big... NOW would be the time (before you have to end up spending big for Keuchel, Springer... and then further down the line, Altuve and Correa?). The Astros core players all being cheap/affordable is a huge competitive advantage when it comes to going after big-money players.
Yep, you just have to play better than your opponents. Doesn't matter how you do it. Teams like the Astros have cost concerns that will likely limit the ways they do it. Having a dominant starting rotation would greatly increase the Astros odds of making the postseason, but so would a lot of other things. I typically like the dominant starting rotation strategy as it decreases variance in the regular season, but cost can make it difficult for teams to have more than 1 or 2 starters that are post-arb.
Do you still foresee them having a bottom 3rd payroll throughout the rebuild process? (which is hopefully close to being done...) They've been ramping up the payroll in each of the last few years... I understand there's always a budget... but I think everybody's a little bit too cost-conscious when it comes to presuming that they won't take on any huge contracts.
