agree with this. If you can plug 1-2 holes in free agency, and 1-2 holes via prospect trades...you're the best team in baseball with a still-deep farm system (though probably only upper half if you make 2 trades...not top 5 anymore). Hoping for an ace FA, a closer via trade, and then 1 other big move for a hitter. The good part there is, there are enough upgradeable slots (3B, 1B, DH, C, LF to a degree) that we can be flexible on that big move.
Luhnow wasn't the GM in St. Louis. He handled their scouting, draft, and minor leagues... but MLB team decisions were made by others.
Yeah, 7/117MM for Holliday definitely isn't chump change (17MM/per year). STL's biggest contract prior to that was Pujols @7/100MM. My point was, STL, under Luhnow, never made a habit of revamping via pricey FA like NYY, BOS, and LAA typically do. Luhnow (or perhaps STL ownership) has seemed more of a, generally, in-house guy, more along the lines of ATL than a big market spender. Even though 117MM is a lot, I still consider that K on a slightly lesser tier than that which Greinke will command (23+MM per year), which is why I don't see us inking that type of deal. I think we're serious contenders for anything under 20MM/per year, but anything over that, I doubt us seriously considering.
Yeah, true. Not fair in my analysis to assume Luhnow wont spend big. Maybe he will. I just dont think we'll be the team offering a 25MM-30MM per year type of deal.
Its all about what you're spending it on. A 25-30 million dollar deal for a player past their prime, or on their 2nd big free agent deal (i.e. - Pujols) is clearly a bad decision. A similar deal for a first-time free agent, that fills a large need that can't be filled any other way, is most certainly fair game.... and that player is simply getting market value. The only reason I could see it not happening is that they may be able to fill most of their needs via in-house promotion and trades... additionally, you can't ever presume a free agent is going to come to Houston, so its always going to be necessary to have a fall-back plan on how to fill a specific role that doesn't rely solely on another player making up their minds on what they want to do.
I wonder if the Astros view starting pitching as a priority? IMO: they already have an ace, who's arbitration-eligible, and a legitimate future ace in McCullers. And five years from now, they're staring down a gauntlet of tough contract decisions/extensions/increases on McCullers, Altuve, Springer and Correa. So paying $25/30MM to a pitcher now doesn't make sense to me; less sense in five years when that pitcher will be grossly overpriced and your core nucleus needs to get paid.
True. Regardless, I'd be hesitant towards giving that type of commitment to a pitcher. Those contracts never seem to end well. Then again, maybe that's just the cost of having 1-3 superb years from an ace. Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like years 4-7 on those contracts are more often than not disasters. I'd rather allocate that salary commitment to a stud SS, corner infielder, or CFer than to (1) SP.
Seems to me that the Astros would be more likely to get an ace at the deadline, that is on a short term deal. However, NICK has a point, the Astros were very hot after Cole and were willing to offer the most. Maybe 4 years is their cut off? I have heard 3-4 years as a number of years the Astros have targeted.
Of course... very rarely will any free agent deal work out for the entirety... and pitchers have an inherent injury risk that outweighs that of position player. Then again, this team is poised to win now... and like you said, 4-5 (or 7 - gasp) year deals are the going rate for free agent pitchers, and its almost assumed that they're not going to pitch at that level for the duration. The Astros were ready to take that risk with Hamels. Player development still very important... if only Appel was as good as he was supposed to be (still should be a contributor of some sort next year).
I think so, and I think it mainly will do with playoffs in mind. The Mets just showed that dominant pitching can carry you. Adding an ace, for example Greinke, would give us a playoff rotation of: Keuchel, Greinke, McCullers, and McHugh. If that doesn't dominate, it will at least keep us in most playoff games. Then add a dominant closer to the bullpen via trade (Chapman or Kimbrel), and theoretically you would have above-average to dominant pitching in the game at all times. Then add our offense into the mix, which isn't too shabby (and projects to be improved by potential offseason moves), and we'd be set. We would basically be a blend of the Mets and the Royals, and that could be pretty fun to watch.
I think trading for Kazmir at the deadline, plus the fact that they did all they could to additionally acquire and pay Hamels (credit to Nick for that reminder), are clear indicators that they do view starting pitching as a priority. Velasquez and Feliz (and Appel) not making any noteworthy strides to where they could be considered reliable starting pieces heading into the season also is a factor in favor of them going after another starter. To me, these next 5 years are all that matters. If they've somehow spent and dealt poorly enough that they've mortgaged the future of the franchise for the following 5 years+, so be it. Now is the time to go all out. I fully understand that my interests are different from those with actual financial and career interests in the team, but, as a fan, I'd like to see them take every reasonable measure to maximize their chances of coming out of this era with at least one ring.
Fair point. But Hamels is only guaranteed $70.5MM/3 years; fourth year is a club option for $20MM that's guaranteed only if he hits certain milestones; it can be bought out for $6MM. Even if we assume he will hit those milestones, there's a significant difference between 4/$90.5MM and, let's say... 7/$210MM deal, which is what Scherzer got last offseason. And his deal is structured the *exact* way that would scare the crap out of me, if I'm the Astros; ie heavily back-loaded. He'll make more money between the ages of 35 and 37 ($86.5MM) than he will 31-34 ($55MM). Bottom line, Hamels' deal is far more club-friendly than Grienke's is likely to be - unless you think he'll accept a deal for only 3 guaranteed years.
I think we can assume that they would have also been willing to re-up with Kazmir for 3/$45-50MM if he didn't go to crap. That's 2 studs (in theory) instead of 1 obviously, but still a boatload of money that they were willing to allocate to starting pitching upgrades.
Do, or did? I think it all comes down to where they slot McCullers. He'd made 13 career MLB starts at the deadline; he was young; he was zipping past the most innings he'd ever pitched in his career... I think an ace was definitely a priority on July 31, 2015. I'm not so sure it is now. Or, at the very least. I would wager McCullers has altered the thinking. He's young, and who knows what a full year will hold for him - but investing $200MM *just in case* 2015 was a fluke seems like a foolish decision, IMO... Which is not to suggest they should assume they're set with pitching. But I think they have 4 reliable starters slotted for 2016; one's a certified ace; another has ace potential, and the other two are above-average. And they have prospects behind them... that seems like a pretty enviable position and not one that requires a flexibility-killing contract.
I think they'd absolutely jump on a mid-level deal (3/$45-50MM) for a pitcher like Kazmir, sure. But Zack Grienke's not going to sign a mid-level deal - he's certainly not going to sign a 3-year deal - and that's the type of pitcher you said made sense. Any team would be stupid to assume anything when it comes to pitching... The Astros should kick tires and look to upgrade. I just don;t think they should invest $200+MM into it.
Not picking on you, but there are many ways to skin a cat. Ultimately I think the Astros will be very flexible in addressing their needs. If the opportunity presents itself to get an elite starter, at a solid length and number, they will probably do it (Cueto). If they can trade for an elite starter and spend money addressing other positions (Grey), they will go that way. If a catcher like LeCroy is a more attractive target, they will probably deal Castro and go that route. The only position I would be shocked that were not addressed would be closer. I could even see the Astros make a deal for an elite corner infield bat and catcher; and roll with Marisnick in the outfield. If the Astros have any money left, I wouldn't mind the set up man from the Orioles, he is very good.
