Hayward was burned by the arbitration process. They value old school offensive numbers, not defensive metrics, or else he would have made much more. Plus market value is constantly increasing, what seems like a good deal now could be undervalued in 5 years. You are talking about Springer as if his numbers are set in stone. Based on his current performance he may deserve the numbers you are proposing, but what if he gets better? I guarantee the Astros would offer that deal in a heartbeat, and Springer would reject it equally fast. If Springer gets better and posts great numbers over a full season, he will then spend years being underpaid. At this point his floor seems well established, he is highly unlikely to not be an MLB regular for the forseeable future. He isn't gonna lock himself in at his floor when a similar offer is likely to still be on the table next offseason.
As for why others would take it, every player is different. Some like the security, some need the money for their families. Some just don't expect themselves to get much better, or get worse.
I don't see anyone giving Hayward 192MM...solid player, sure, but that seems way too high for a player as inconsistent as him.
A very thin relief market. Darren O'Day was rated as their top reliever. He's been very productive for a few years now, but he would compound the lack of velocity in the bullpen, and at some point you have to think he'll quit stranding 90% of runners. I feel like the Astros should definitely offer Rasmus the qualifying offer, and then watch him walk. Chris Davis is an obvious fit, but only if Carter and/or Gattis are moved. Zobrist would be a great fit, particularly if he can play 3B. Wieters would also be a great fit at that price.
Heyward is 25 and accumulated over 30 rWAR in his career. His offensive production has remained relatively the same over the last 3 years, so teams will pay him expecting that level of production to go with great defense for the next 5-6 years, with the potential for more. If he stays healthy, I think he'll be worth his contract (or at least, that contract, as who knows what he will actually get).
Yeah, I would love to pick him up, opening a trade of Moran. I like Moran a lot, but I think he has more value to us as a trade chip at this point. We need an established hitter, and Zob fits what we need. Moran may be better 5 years from now, he also may not. It's time to take chances and move some of our prospects.
Previously talked about guys.. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Other teams say 2 players who had options exercised in last 48 hours are available for trade right now--MIL's Adam Lind, SD's Joaquin Benoit</p>— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/662015133892390912">November 4, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As mentioned last month, MIL has the likes of Jonathan Lucroy and Francisco Rodriguez available for trade talks, as they look to get younger</p>— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/662016063798943744">November 4, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The relief help most likely will come through trade. There are a number of options available. Not so sure Rasmus wouldn't take the QO, he wants to stay an Astro and has said he doesn't intend to play much longer. Personally would like an upgrade. I don't see the Astros dropping $100,000,000 on a first baseman. Zobrist can play 3rd but is a poor defender now. There is a real concern that Wieters will not be able to play catcher full time again. He has had a good arm but have to see how it is post injury. The Brewers and Astros had a deal for Lind and KRod on the table at the deadline and passed trying to work out a deal with SD for a reliever and first baseman. I wouldn't be shocked to see KRod and Lind or LeCroy in Houston if Kimbrel/Chapman are too rich.
Back-end closer to start the season, yes. There are also always relief arms available in FA and trade, you just have to find the right ones. Depth and late-season arms can come from the minors also. If he takes it, so be it. There are worse options for a platoon/3/4th OF. It wont kill the budget either, and you can always trade him later. They have vet options (not ideal at all) and they have youngsters. They would have to change the vet 1B/DH situation drastically (Cater/Gattis/Singleton trades). I'm hoping that Reed, despite his m.o. of struggling early at every level, comes out and kicks ass in ST and makes them give him the 1B job. Wouldn't mind at all having a vet (RH?) masher that is penciled in at DH every game. Don't know if Davis is that guy, but someone like him (Nelson Cruz, Joey Votto?, etc...) is interesting. *Can* Zobrist play 3rd? He never has (why?), and now he's older and slower than he was when he was a mediocre SS. I think you would be spectacularly lucky to get 100 games out of Wieters behind the plate for 1 year, after that ??? (DH/1B? Does he just get miraculously healthy like some guys do?). That's not worth it unless the price is very right and you also have a really solid 2nd line catcher that can fill in every couple of days and if/when he's injured.
He would be the first player ever to take it. Michael Cuddyer turned it down last year, and Rasmus is better and younger. If he doesn't want to play several more years, than this would be the perfect time to get paid on a 3 year deal. A poor defender? We haven't really had much to go on for him at 3B. I don't know how we can be certain about that. He was playing SS as recently as 2014.
The off-season will be a whole lot more interesting this year knowing higher level FA's may be in play for the Astros. The last few off-seasons were quite boring/frustrating seeing only third tier relievers getting linked to the stros on the hot stove rumors.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Where do <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffJoyce19">@JeffJoyce19</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/MelAntonen">@MelAntonen</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/jimmemolo">@jimmemolo</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeStantonRS">@MikeStantonRS</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/stevesaxspeaks">@stevesaxspeaks</a> & Brad Lidge have FA's going? <a href="https://t.co/nQtxAw5q14">pic.twitter.com/nQtxAw5q14</a></p>— MLB Network Radio (@MLBNetworkRadio) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBNetworkRadio/status/662673831186661376">November 6, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I'm starting to think the Astros may be very quiet during free agency; that they may prefer trades and sacrificing resources in order to maintain greater cost control. I think Carols Gonzalez, on a reasonably priced two-year deal, is a better investment - even with throwing in prospects - than signing... say, Cespedes for a 5, 6, 7-year deal worth north of $100MM. They'd also lose a pick signing a free agent, and I don't think they take that lightly. They value picks.
