I don't see how keeping Conger is an option. You cannot throw out 1 of 44 runners and expect to get any playing time at Catcher.
This team is in a great position, with a few aggressive offseason improvements, to greatly improve the talent on the 25-man roster for this coming season Their unique position allows them to do this while also securing the long-term window of contention this team has been built for since reconstruction began over 4 years ago Here is my 5-part plan to take this team beyond the ALDS in 2016 while barely increasing the payroll from where the team ended in 2015 I'll break them up separately so not 1 long massive post Some of my salary numbers may be a little off, but good enough for this Final Astros 2015 Payroll: $81.4M (25th) 1st - LAD ($314M) 5th - WAS ($165M) 10th - TOR ($138M) 15th - NYM ($120M) 20th - ATL ($107M) 30th - MIA ($62M)
1 - CUT DEAD WEIGHT ON PAYROLL GONE = $47.5M First thing Luhnow should do this offseason is instantly cut nearly $50M off the payroll just by shedding useless/redundant/inferior salary in 3 ways: Traded Away (2016 salary) = $17.5M Luhnow should look to basically 'dump' all 3 in trades, with the main goal to rid this team of their combined salaries SP Scott Feldman ($8M) Feldman is completely redundant with the presence of the much cheaper (and better) Mike Fiers as the vet 4th/5th starter, plus he's always hurt IF Jed Lowrie ($7.5M) Same for oft-injured Lowrie with Marwin available as the switch-hitting utility IF at much lower cost 1B Jon Singleton ($2M) Singleton has had 3 years to take the 1B job, and failed in every opportunity With AJ Reed having blown by him as a 1B prospect in 2015, he has no future here Arb-Eligible Cuts (2015 salary) = $12.8M All 3 of these disappointing vets are dead weight and should be outright released, as they have next to zero trade value 3B Luis Valbuena ($4.2M) 1B Chris Carter ($4.2M) These 2 are both blocked by a better ML-ready prospect (AJ Reed & Colin Moran) Both are also huge holes in the lineup who don't hit or defend enough to justify their salary or at-bats, even with all that power C Jason Castro ($4M) Just too expensive to perform so poorly and needs to be let go for better options FA Cuts (2015 salary) = $17.6M These 5 can be allowed to walk as UFAs, and should be allowed to do so OF Colby Rasmus ($8M) Rasmus had a great postseason, but this must be considered nothing more than a well-timed hot streak Overall his 2015 season matched his career to date - he is a below-average ML starting OF Even if he took a paycut of half ($4M) to return, I'd rather go with young guys like Preston Tucker in LF until Derek Fisher is ready SP Scott Kazmir ($4.5M) Kazmir was a great mid-season pickup to stabilize the rotation and help get this team to the postseason Unfortunately, his fade down the stretch, plus likely high FA price tag, combined with the presence of a certain former #1 overall pick at AAA, make his return in 2016 an illogical allocation of payroll resources If he was willing to take a huge hometown discount (2yrs@$30M), I'd consider a shorter deal to bring him back as 4/5th starter But at 31, coming off a near-AllStar season, I don't blame Kazmir if he looks to cash in with his last big FA contract I expect him to do so, and I expect Luhnow to smartly move on by replacing him with much cheaper in-house options at the back of the rotation RP Chad Qualls ($3.5M club option) Shouldn't even be debated ... declining 2016 $3.5M club option for a guy left off postseason roster is a no-brainer RP Oliver Perez ($0.8M) Decent job as lefty specialist for the stretch run, but no reason to bring him back as FA If needed, LH Relievers are among the easiest deadline pieces to acquire, so Luhnow can find another on the fly next year too RP Joe Thatcher ($0.8M) Just not good enough to keep a spot next year with so many younger, cheaper, better arms coming soon
2 - EXTEND 2 CORNERSTONES LONG-TERM & LET THE KIDS GROW TOGETHER KEEP = $57.1M Holdovers (2016 salary) = $25.5M These 4 vets are locks to return in 2016 Altuve's bargain-basement contract has become almost insulting, but with Bregman already in AA, extending the AllStar 2B should not be a current priority unless he starts complaining CF Carlos Gomez ($9M) RP Pat Neshek ($6.5M) RP Luke Gregerson ($6.3M) 2B Jose Altuve ($3.7M) Arb-Eligible Keepers (2015 / 16 salary) = $12.6M Although a reasonable long-term extension should be explored with McHugh, I wouldn't rush to buy him out of arbitration just yet The others should all receive small raises for 2016 but still provide good value to the club Gattis should platoon at DH in 2016 with Tucker, batting only against the toughest lefties or when Marisnick/Tucker need a day off SP Collin McCugh ($0.5 / 4M) DH Evan Gattis ($0.5 / 3M) IF Marwin Gonzalez ($1.1 / 1.5M) C Hank Conger ($1.1 / 1.2M) RP Will Harris ($0.5 / 1M) OF Jake Marisnick ($0.5 / 0.7M) RP Josh Fields ($0.5 / 0.7M) SP Mike Fiers ($0.2 / 0.5M) PRE-Arb Keepers (2015 salary) = $1.5M The future success of this team will largely be determined by this core group of rookies All are locks to return to Houston in 2016, and are still years away from becoming expensive in ARB or FA LF Preston Tucker ($0.3M) SS Carlos Correa ($0.3M) SP Lance McCullers ($0.3M) SP Vincent Velasquez ($0.2M) 1B Matt Duffy ($0.1M) FA Resigns (2015 / 16 salary) = $4M Unless the price gets insane, this vet should be the only priority to resign in FA RP Tony Sipp ($2.4 / 4M) Extensions (2016 salary) = $13.5M With as forward-thinking a GM as Luhnow, the Astros should commit to these 2 Stars this off-season They have both earned the trust of the team with on-field performance, and the love of the fans as 2 of the new 'faces' of the franchise Locking them up now would save the team money down the line and secure the core of this team for the next 4-5 years SP Dallas Keuchel ($8M - 5yrs@$40M) The ace of the team is also 1 of the 5-10 true 'aces' in all of MLB, the leader of the pitching staff, and the team's 2nd-most important player going forward (after Correa) He is now firmly in the elite company of Kershaw, Bumgarner, Sale and Price as a Top 5 Lefty Starter, and may well have had the best 2015 season of any starter in the game If he doesn't win the AL Cy Young (as expected), he has still clearly earned the security of a generous, long-term extension to buy out his arbitration years A 5-year deal similar to what 2014 AL CY winner Corey Kluber signed just before Opening Day (averaging $7.7M) should make Dallas happy without breaking the bank The best part is that his raise would essentially be more than offset by dropping the combined salaries of Kazmir and Feldman from the rotation OF George Springer ($5.5M - 6yrs@$33M) Only health has kept Springer from already becoming the 30/30 superstar he was touted to be when he burst on the scene as a rookie in 2014 Though no longer the team's best young player, he is clearly the most talented athlete on the roster, and his All-Star ceiling is second only to the HoF potential we now have at SS Last year he bet on himself by rejecting a pre-callup extension similar to what Jon Singleton accepted, which was a good call He'll look to cash in soon and make much more, so a 6-yr deal similar to what Starling Marte got from PIT (avg $5M) should get it done That would instantly put him among the team's top 5 salaries, which seems more than fair considering he has yet to play a full ML season at age 26 Again, simply letting Rasmus walk easily offsets an extension for another of our young core anchors
3 - PROMOTE 3 MORE POTENTIAL HOME-GROWN STARS ADD = $1M Much like Springer + Singleton in 2014, then Correa + McCullers this year, Luhnow looks to have 3 more potential core players ready to arrive at key positions of need sometime in 2016 Farm Promotions (2016 salary) = $1M 1B AJ Reed ($0.3M) Reed had a monster year as he claimed the title of 'best 1B prospect in the minors' in 2015 He even received some recognition as Minor League Player of the Year from the likes of Keith Law As such, he is clearly the future at 1B for the Astros, and deserves the chance to take the job out of the gate in 2016 as he has nothing left to prove on the farm His disciplined, powerful LH swing will fit in perfectly as the new cleanup hitter to protect Correa once he's ready Looks to be the most likely player in the system to become the next young homegrown 'star' for this blossoming team 3B Colin Moran ($0.3M) After a very slow start his first 1.5 seasons as a pro, Moran caught fire the second half of 2015 In doing so, he reaffirmed his status as a 3B prospect worthy of drafting #6 overall in 2014 A late promotion to AAA confirms the Astros think he is almost ready, and 3B should be his to lose in the Spring His patient, contact approach from the left side should bring welcome balance to a lineup heavy on all-or-nothing RH free-swingers Seems like a perfect player to slot into #2 in the lineup between Altuve and Correa SP Mark Appel ($0.3M) Although the least-deserving promotion of the 3 based on 2015 performance, he still seems most likely to get a shot at a full-time starting job with the team in 2016 If only to justify taking him #1 over superstar Kris Bryant, Luhnow seems almost over-eager to promote Appel up the system, often regardless of performance After ending the year in AAA, Appel has nowhere else to go but Houston If, as expected, Kazmir and Feldman do not return, Vez will likely get the first shot to grab the 5th spot in the rotation in 2016 Next up after Vez will likely be Appel, and probably sooner than later The odd man out becomes an excellent swing-man 6th option for long relief and spot starts I expect the same tag-team approach with these 2 in 2016 that Luhnow deployed to help limit innings for Vez & Lance last season
4 - AGGRESSIVELY FIX CATCHER IN FA ADD = $12M Despite ranking only 25th in total payroll, and despite getting pathetic production from the position offensively (Castro) and defensively (Conger), somehow the Astros paid $5.2M to this position in 2015, which ranked 11th-most in MLB Castro has regressed so badly in the 2 years since his All-Star season that he's not even worth the $4M he made this year, let alone the expected raise he should get in Arbitration Conger is decent as a backup and clubhouse leader for this young team, but his horrific inability to control base-runners (only 1 CS in all of 2015) mandates he be paired with a strong defender as the starter FA Signings (2016 salary) C Matt Wieters (2yrs@$24M = $12M per season with Player Option for Year 2) As a Boras client, coming off major surgery, and the clear best Catcher on the market, this seems like an unlikely fit The Orioles top priority in FA figures to be locking up slugger Chris Davis to a long-term deal Rumors are already flying the the GT alum (who still lives in ATL during off-season) will be the Braves top target Most of Boras' big-name clients leave their current teams, like Scherzer last year, so I expect Wieters will leave Baltimore Boras loves to be patient, wait for the market to dry up, then push his clients to the biggest offer once teams get desperate He may have a hard time finding a long-term deal guaranteeing more than $24M the first 2 years, even from the hometown Braves For reference, just last season Toronto signed C Russell Martin to 5yrs @ $82M ($16.4M per season) Although comparable players when healthy, Martin had proven to be remarkably durable, averaging 124 game played over the previous 4 season heading into FA A 29-year-old Catcher who has missed over half the past 2 seasons after TJ surgery is not nearly the same kind of sure thing A front-loaded deal with $12M guaranteed this year, plus the opportunity to hit the market again next year, might entice Boras If he gets hurt again, or has a terrible 2016 season, he would still have another $12M guaranteed for 2017 If he comes back strong and returns to his 3xAS, 2xGG form, he can opt out and hit the market looking for a mega-deal next offseason
5 - CONCLUDE DEADLINE PURSUIT OF ELITE CLOSER IN TRADE ADD = $14M Whether it's Aroldis Chapman ($8M in 2015 - expected to earn $12M+ in ARB for 16) or Craig Kimbrel ($11.3M in 16, $13M in 17&18) by trade, the Royals series showed how badly this team needs a dominator to close out games These are not just 2 Elite closers ... these are probably the Two Best closers in MLB They rank #1 (Chapman - 292IP) & #2 (Kimbrel - 305IP) as the two fastest pitchers in MLB history to reach 500 career Ks The fact they are both available simultaneously makes the opportunity too good to pass up as they drive down the prospect cost of each other on the trade market Luhnow was in hot pursuit of both at the deadline, and should see it thru to completion once the postseason concludes It's not just about getting the hammer for the 9th ... it's the trickle-down effect on the 4 vet holdovers (Gregerson/Harris/Neshek/Sipp) and the rest of the staff Getting either of these guys could single-handedly push us past the Royals in an ALDS rematch next year ... either may have successfully closed out Game 4 this season Trade Targets (2016 salary) CP Craig Kimbrel (3yrs@$37.3M = $12.4M per season) If the Padres become more desperate to cut payroll this offseason, and the price in prospects drop, I'd probably prefer Kimbrel already locked in at $38M over the next 3 years According to Evan Drellich, the Astros rejected a deadline package of 3 pitchers (Musgrove/Martes/Hader) for Kimbrel ... I'd have made that deal Everyone knows the Padres want a young SS in any Kimbrel deal ... guess who just took 1 at #2 overall who now looks roadblocked at MidIF by Altuve/Correa??? If something like Bregman+Martes+Singleton can get this done, count me in If they are still being unreasonable in prospect demands, then Chapman should move to the top of the priority list or CP Aroldis Chapman (to buy out remaining ARB years, immediately offer 4yrs@$56M = $14M per season) Getting the hardest thrower on the planet will put a major dent in the young talent Luhnow has stockpiled (threw ALL 101 of fastest pitches in majors this season) His whiff rate as a rare Lefty Closer (15.4 K/9) is (by far) the best in the history of MLB, dwarfing even Billy the Kid (11.9 K/9) and current All-Time leader Rob Dibble (12.1 K/9) among relievers That he will then cost in excess of $12M in ARB, or more likely demand a long-term extension immediately, might help make the prospect price more comparable to what the locked-up Kimbrel would cost For reference, just last season the White Sox signed Closer David Robertson to 4yrs @ $46M ($11.5M per season) Chapman is better than Robertson (and Kimbrel), so his next contract will surely reflect that $14M per season sounds about right for a Top 3 Closer just entering his prime
In trying to determine an enticing package of prospects for an elite closer, we have an obvious surplus of talent in the minors in 2 areas: Infield & Starting Pitching I'd come out strong with initial offers for both centered around Bregman & Kemp + 1 of Feliz/Martes/Musgrove If possible, try to dump Singleton as well INFIELD PROSPECTS We currently have a crowded field of contenders for playing time on and infield already set up the middle for a long time with Correa & Altuve Bregman should be knocking soon, along with 3 corner bats (Reed/Moran/Davis), plus Futures AllStar Kemp, and the bypassed AAA trio of Singleton/White/Duffy My guess is Bregman would headline any deal for an elite closer ROTATION PROSPECTS A glut of young power arms is never a problem for any team, but in this case, it looks like a great situation to deal from a strength to help a weakness Velazquez, Feliz, Appel, Musgrove, and Martes are 5 young RH starters who appear to be competing for 1 rotation spot in 2016-17 And that's assuming Kaz is allowed to leave, Feldman is traded away, and no vets are signed in FA to replace either It looks highly unlikely any of Dallas/Collin/Lance/Fiers will not return as the Top 4 in 2016, leaving 1 rotation spot up for grabs Assuming a closer can be acquired & Sipp can be resigned, the pen will be 5 or 6 deep with vets, leaving few innings available there as well
After all these moves, this would be my ideal 25-man Roster for Opening Day 2016: TOTAL Opening Day 2016 PAYROLL: $83.7M LINEUP (13 - $37.9M) STARTING (9 - $34.4M) 2B - Altuve R ($3.7M) 3B - Moran L ($0.3M) SS - Correa R ($0.3M) RF - Springer R ($5.5M) 1B - Reed L ($0.3M) CF - Gomez R ($9M) LF - Tucker L ($0.3M) DH - Gattis R ($3M) C - Wieters R ($12M) BENCH (4 - $3.5M) UT - Marwin S ($1.5M) OF4 - Marisnick R ($0.7M) IF6 - Duffy R ($0.1M) C2 - Conger S ($1.2M) STAFF (12 - $45.8M) ROTATION (5 - $13M) SP1 - Keuchel L ($8M) SP2 - McCugh R ($4M) SP3 - McCullers R ($0.3M) SP4 - Fiers R ($0.5M) SP5 - Velasquez R ($0.2M) BULLPEN (7 - $32.8M) CP1 - Chapman L ($14M) RP2 - Gregerson R ($6.3M) RP3 - Sipp L ($4M) RP4 - Harris R ($1M) RP5 - Neshek R ($6.5M) RP6 - Fields R ($0.7M) RP7 - Appel R ($0.3M) Even with adding 2 premier Vets on the market, and giving out 2 pricey extensions, the payroll would essentially remain unchanged from 2015 to 2016 using this plan This would keep Houston among the 10 lowest payrolls in MLB, if not bottom 5, while significantly improving the most glaring holes in the lineup (catcher) and on the mound (closer) with elite, All-Star caliber players in their primes It could also improve a young playoff team well past 90 wins and into true World Series contention
Milos - nice job. I love that plan but would take payroll to 100MM by adding a legit bat. I like Reed at 1B but am far less sold on 3b and LF. adding a zobrist or Gordon would solidify things significantly. Id also rather deal gattis and keep carter, so that Carter can help with 1B and potentially platoon with Reed if he struggles and DH some.
I suspect that Wieters gets the QO of around $15-16 million. That would mean the Astros would lose a #1 pick and would probably have to pay him more than $12 million a season. He also has had shoulder issues and there are concerns he cannot remain behind the plate for 120-130 games a season at his size, and coming off the injury. He potentially would help the Astros though. Chapman has one year before he is a free agent. I suspect that you see the Astros target Kimbrel over Chapman. I also wouldn't rule out Pappelbon in a scenario where the Nationals pay most of his contract. K-Rod is also a possibility. There have been multiple reports that the Nats will pay a majority share of Pappelbon's contract and not expect much in trade. If that is the case you have to strongly consider adding him because he doesn't increase the payroll, cost much in prospects and fills a need. I think the Astros will add at least one upgrade offensively in the infield. Probably 3rd, but possibly someone that plays first/c and can DH.
