I have to imagine they could've had that offer at the deadline if they just wanted to clear the books
Exactly. They could have moved Kimbrel, Upton and others if it was just about clearing salary. They were pretty clear they wanted a certain level of talent or they wouldn't move them. I don't think adding a guy like Marisnik to Fields and Villar gets you Kimbrel I can't imagine Villar has much trade value at all, and while plenty of teams would take a shot on Fields arm, he isn't going to be a major piece in a major deal If you want a guy like Kimbrel or Chapman, gonna have to part with a high level prospect that many would be upset giving up I'd be surprised if SD would move him without a guy like Feliz or Martes as one of the main pieces
Villar has actually shown flashes of a pretty good player. He can fit a huge need in SD. We disagree on the kind of player Villar is. At best he is a starter, and I think he should be given that chance again. Fields has shown flashes of brilliance, and his flyball habits would be helped by Petco. The FIP point is to say, he could put it together, and make up for a lot of the production the Padres lost. If you read my post, you'd know that I said I think it would be a fair deal, but the Padres wouldn't accept it (I even said add Marisnick/Kemp to try and make it work). I think the Padres would get more WAR out of Villar+Fields than we get out of Kimbrel while saving money.
Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball. He is entering his prime, very consistent and durable. He is under team control for 3-4 years at a below market rate. He will be expensive to get but is an excellent fit for the Astros for many reasons. Chapman is obviously elite as well but will be a free agent after this upcoming season.
Andrew Miller got 4/$36 & Robertson got 4/$46. Those are the 2 comps to look at. It is too bad Miller decided to go with the Yankees instead of us.
Their combined career WAR is 1.9; Kimbrel's was 1.3 last year. And having a shutdown closer at the back of your pen completely changes the dynamic of your team - something that you can't quantify on a spreadsheet. And the Padres undoubtedly know this. If the Astros were in on Kimbrel at the deadline and couldn't get a deal done, it wasn't because they refused to part with Villar and/or Fields (and/or Marisnick and/or Kemp) - I would wager the Astros probably would haven given up all four if that's all San Diego wanted for Kimbrel.
Their combined WAR last season was 1.5, while not having full seasons in the big leagues. They are both trending the right way. At the time of the deadline, Springer was still going to be out for a month, so including Marisnick would have been difficult, though possible once Gomez was acquired. If we give up Marisnick, I think SD should jump on it, though they may choose to bet on BJ Upton being back after having a bounce back season.
Craig Kimbrel is just better than Robertson and Miller. Kimbrel is 3 years younger, has been better and more consistent and under contract/control for three more seasons. He is the best relief pitcher in baseball and there is a cost associated with that.
Then why make the deal?... It's a ridiculously lopsided deal. And using a WAR - a counting stat that mostly devalues relievers - isn't going to make it any more fair. Craig Kimbrel has a career ERA+ of 233; Josh Fields 93. Villar's career OPS+ is 83. They are below average players.
Chapman & Kimbrel have been the best, but they aren't alone. Miller is on their level, he just wasn't a full-time closer before his deal. Davis is there. Holland was there before his injury. Betances is there. Jansen's there. Those guys are truly elite, and I'd take any one of them. Kimbrel of this season is very similar to Robertson (who is good, but overrated). I'd bet on Kimbrel to bounce back to elite though given his 2nd half and rest of his career.
Villar has no spot on our roster, but would be a starter in San Diego. Fields would be better in Petco. Their career values include god awful rookie campaigns playing for a team that was complete garbage. Neither was really a below average player last season. Because relievers are less valuable over 162 games. That is just a fact.
Like I said initially, it's that time of year where fans will wildly overvalue their own players to justify landing a marquee name without having to make a substantial sacrifice. Kimbrel is 27 and under club control; they have no reason to deal him - unless they can drastically improve their team. Villar+Fields does not drastically improve that team.
I think you're overrating the two. Part of their "productivity" last year was because of how seldom-used both were. Fields was not one of the top 4 arms out of this bullpen... and Villar was basically a september callup. San Diego could very well have two similar players in the minors... Fields/Villar are not even for-sure MLB players at this point, let alone for-sure contributors on another team. They would not have gotten a deal done for Kimbrel... hell, I wouldn't even trade Gregerson to another team for a similar return.
Agree with all of this. We just need one of the elite closers. OR we need to identify the next one like Andrew Miller or Wade Davis that will be elite when put in that role.
Maybe I am, but I'm high on Villar and want him to get his chance. Fields with his peripherals should be much better, but the consistency blows. I want him gone, but see him as a guy that will put it together for a season or two. I also think they fit in SD better than just about anywhere. They might not be that productive, but at least they are more quantifiable. I've seen my team trade 2 elite closers. They got nothing out of the prospects traded for Wagner, but did great getting Bourn, who wasn't that different from Villar. SD has garbage in the minors. We are a good team, with a weakness in the bullpen while being strong at SS & OF. Of course we wouldn't make a deal like that. It would be more like where we were when we had Jose Valverde. I'm now reminded of how we traded away Mark Melancon, who has gone on to nearly mirror the last 3 seasons of Kimbrel.
This also speaks volumes as to how prevalent good closers actually are... or how they're discovered each and every year from a variety of places (failed starters, a promoted minor leaguer on a team that doesn't have a starters spot available, or a bullpen guy who finally "gets it"). They aren't like NFL QB's... it also seems that most teams find them unexpectedly. If there isn't a deal that magically falls into their laps for someone established, I'd like to see them give Appel and VV some bullpen appearances in the spring. If that's the only way those two make the opening day roster, it may just bring out the best in them... hell, most successful closers had no idea they'd take to the role so well prior to them actually doing it (Mariano Rivera included).
I've read a lot of complaints about the bullpen. Even with their late-season collapse (which certainly warranted complaining), HOU still ranked 6th in the MLB in bullpen ERA, and 2nd in BAA. This is not as shotty as a bullpen as some make it out to be. I, too, would like to see some modifications to the bullpen. But an overhaul is unnecessary. Let Qualls walk, re-sign Sipp, maybe make a move for 1 outstanding arm, and let the rest fill out internally.
Agreed. The biggest piece IMO is a dominant closer, and short of that someone that can compete with Gregerson for the closer role. Bringing in a closer makes us much stronger by pushing Gregerson to the setup/8th inning role and Sipp/Neshak/Harris to the primary middle relief.
From everything I have heard from inside the organization, they are targeting an elite closer and elite set up man.
A closer fixes the major problem. Gregerson can move into the setup role, and Sipp can handle the 7th (assuming we re-sign him). I don't see them picking up Qualls' option, though I think he could be back in the Spring if another team doesn't give him an MLB deal. I think the team should look to include Fields in a trade, but he'll probably be back. I tend to think the same way about Harris. We are stuck with Neshek and the $7M owed to him. I'm sure they will bring in another lefty to replace Perez/Thatcher, with re-signing Perez, or looking to Luis Cruz/Tommy Shirley/Kevin Chapman internally.
