Great post The future is Appel/FelizMartes/Bregman/VV/K.Tucker/Cameron/Reed/Moran/Davis etc..... there needs to be a couple of trades not only to improve the MLB roster. They also need to clear some room in the minors for blocked prospects. It's a great time to be an Astros fan. It makes it worth all of the losing over the last few seasons.
But this is exactly how teams become good for a very long time... by recycling the farm system and jettisoning the promising ones that could go either way for guys that are already there or to fill needs. Remember, there's a new draft class coming in every year... each one with talented players that could be major contributors some day. As long as the Astros keep their commitment to signing almost all their picks (which so far, they've been excellent at), the farm system will probably never truly run dry. Its when you combine trades with poor drafts, or not signing picks (which is exactly what the Astros did in the 2000's), you end up having to start all over again.
When you look at our current top 15 prospects. 9 of them (Bregman,Cameron,Tucker,Reed,Martes,Musgrove,Ferrell, Eshelman,Sierra) were either not in the system, or not highly regarded. We won't have the benefit of the high picks, but Luhnows regime has shown the ability to do a spectacular job of maintaining prospect flow. I see now reason to think we won't keep doing it. You can't go around trading prospects all wily nily, but we shouldn't over value them either.
Exactly... that vaunted Cardinals farm system was built without a single high round draft pick. The smaller draft pool will probably shift their strategy as well... I'm sure they'll find a way to make it work for them.
I agree with this to an extent. The pipeline can slow down at any point. It tends to be somewhat cyclical. Having said that, you make deals, especially for prospects you do not feel as special. For example Craig Kimbrel. He is under contract with a team option for the next 3 seasons, at about $12,000,000 a year. He is probably the best closer in baseball and remarkably consistent and durable. That is the type of player the Astros are likely to target. I don't think you thrown in Martes but I could see the Astros deciding that the performance/cost/durability/team control of Kimbrel is worth giving up a little more than most fans would expect.
Every year more all stars come from the 1st round than any other. But astute teams pluck talent via other routes that fill valuable needs. Elite teams are built from players that compliment superstar talent. Rarely is it teams of all all stars. So replenishing the minor league with quantity of potential high ceiling players is a good thing.
Explain how you plan to keep all the kids on the 40 man roster over the years. Reality is that the farm has to be "depleted" in order to get value for everyone...otherwise you'll have the next guy up get blocked in the minors--or worse, lose someone in the Rule 5.
I have zero experience in evaluating talent, but I do remember there was hype around Jason Hirsch, Matt Albers, and even Taylor Buchholz when they were coming up. There were people giving Hirsch a standing ovation in his first start iirc, but how did they turn out? I think some people overrate the talent in the minor leagues. I'm not saying Luhnow should have pulled the trigger on Kimbrel/Chapman, but what are the odds that "prospects" pan out to be the players that us fans expect them to become? Now, I haven't seen these individuals play in the minors, so do forgive me if I sound ignorant in this. I trust Luhnow knows what he's doing. I will say that Correa definitely lived up to the hype, so what do I know.
It entirely depends on the quality of prospect. Ultimately you have to trust the organizations ability to evaluate their own players. Sometimes an organization develops players but is over zealous making trades (Bartolo Colon rental for Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee) and other times organizations know what they are doing (Braves dealt for years without losing many elite players). The trade of Phillips for Fiers and Gomez show that the Astros are not afraid to trade perceived high end prospects if they internally do not agree with general view point on a prospect, and are getting players with more team control and limited financial impact. The Astros have already shown they will deal prospects (they tried to trade even more to SD at the deadline), the question is will they do as good a job making trades as they did drafting and developing their players.
since we're drafting at the bottom of the round this year, with the complete dearth of catching in the system, i could see luhnow and co. drafting for need, rather than BPA this specific time around. you can get a top 3 catcher in the draft there, and taking a shot on one that could be pro-ready by 2018 would make a lot of sense.
They did acquire the best draft eligible defensive catcher last year in Garrett Stubbs. That being said, you can never have too many catchers in the system.
Sending pitchers to Colorado to see their careers fail is how the Astros have operated for years... Hirsch would have not had his confidence shattered in a different ballpark.
Garcia, Stubbs, and Heineman have us set defensively at the position. Just need another Nottingham to cover the offensive catching prospect. Kimbrel is definitely the guy I'm most interested in. I'd look to package Villar, Fields and maybe a 3rd guy (Marisnick? Kemp?) for him. I think it would be a very good deal for the Padres, and clear some space on our 40-man, though I admit giving up Marisnick would be hard. Amazing fact, Josh Fields actually bested Kimbrel on FIP last season. Fields could break out in a huge way for the Padres. I actually think Fields & Villar for Kimbrel straight up would be a reasonable deal based on contracts and potential, but I think Kimbrel will come at a premium.
You honestly think a, at best, utility infielder and a reliever older than Kimbrel would be a good deal for Kimbrel? And that the Padres would accept that offer?... I love this time of year; when fans wildly overvalue their own players to the point they actually invalidate the need to make any trades at all. I mean, if Josh Fields bested Kimbrel's FIP... why trade for Kimbrel at all?
It would clear a guaranteed $25,000,000 from their payroll over the next 3 years. ($24,000,000 in 2016 + 2017 and a $1,000,000 buyout in 2018).
