On tie-breaker games existing, more precisely. As it stands this year, we'd be on the short-end of normal tie-breaker rules formed by non-senile/corrupt commissioners, so we are who would technically benefit this time around, in my mind. Once again, our rotation isn't getting altered whatsoever by playing on Monday. The only way it's getting altered is if we are starting Keuchel on short rest in a WC game on Tuesday and lose the ability to start him to open the ALDS.
I don't think we know who our 2nd best pitcher is. 2-4 are all the same quality on this team. Except I actually don't. Because outside of Keuchel, it would be totally random who I'd put as 2, 3, and 4. Your preferred scenario guarantees Keuchel only pitch once in the ALDS. Mine gives him a chance to pitch twice - that's the only rotation-setting value I see. Keuchel will likely pitch on short rest Tuesday if there is a WC game. If you win the Monday game and avoid the WC game, Keuchel can pitch Game #1 of the ALDS instead, leaving him available to pitch game 5 also. They'll be in Arizona, not Seattle. But you're already traveling from Arizona to Houston to New York. Instead, this has them traveling from Arizona to Dallas to New York. Fine - there's a miniscule risk of injury for a massive potential reward. Better? It's still ludicrous to want to be forced to win 1 game instead of 1 out of 2 games. There is absolutely no rational argument to be made for it - make up whatever %'s you want for winning each game and series and, unless they are absurd, you will ALWAYS come up with a far better likelihood of winning anything (ALDS, ALCS, WS) in the division tiebreaker scenario.
Our number 2 is McCullers, we thought Kazmir was going to be that pitcher, but he is our number 5 right now. Fiers and McHugh are 3 and 4, both are equally good.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Clarification: After a couple e-mail swaps with the league office. Twins would play AT Houston if there's a three-way tie for wild card</p>— LaVelle E. Neal III (@LaVelleNeal) <a href="https://twitter.com/LaVelleNeal/status/649992454150729729">October 2, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rules are different for two-team tie. Twins would host Astros</p>— LaVelle E. Neal III (@LaVelleNeal) <a href="https://twitter.com/LaVelleNeal/status/649992642248486912">October 2, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I had this lineup 2 days ago, is very similar for todays, lineup, only one missing is Gomez who is injured, and Tucker is there instead.
So if Astros win tomorrow and Angels lose the Astros clinch WC. If Angels win then division is still in play. Do you pitch Fiers on Sunday and hold back LMJ for a possible Division game on Monday? I think you have to consider it.
If the Angels go 3-1... the Astros have to sweep the D'backs to get to this possible division tiebreaker. If the Astros only win 2 out of 3 (with the Angels going 3-1), they will be playing the Angels in a loser is done game on Monday. In conclusion... if the Angels keep winning, the Astros better damn well be throwing their best out there to keep winning. Personally, I'd like to ensure this is wrapped up before Sunday... Rangers win and Astros win tomorrow. You then have multiple options against the Yankees (Keuchel on 3 days rest, LMJ on full rest).
Division is still very much up for grabs tho and until it isn't I'm still pulling for it. Bottom line is if you can't win 1 of these next 2 games you shouldn't be in the playoffs anyway. If Astros lose tomorrow then LMJ will definitely pitch Sunday. If Astros win then you're guaranteed another game so you might choose to go with Fiers in order to save LMJ for a possible Monday Division tiebreaker.
You need a strikeout guy against Texas IMO, which McCullers can be. Fiers gives up more contact than LMJ so I'd much rather have LMJ available for Monday against the Rangers.
But if the Astros only win 2 out of 3... the Monday tiebreaker is only for the 2nd wild card spot, not the division. Hence why you won't see them pulling anybody back... unless the Angels lose again. The division is not "very much up for grabs" (thanks to the Rangers winning yesterday)... if the Astros somehow get to that Monday game, they would be extremely fortunate/lucky that it all worked out perfectly, but you can't just presume you're going to sweep the D'backs and start shuffling pitchers around for a game that may never happen.
You're presuming the Angels win on Sunday. My point here is that you would sit LMJ on Sunday with the hopes of Fiers pulling out a win and the Angels also winning. Even if Fiers loses the game the Angels may still lose meaning you still win the WC at that point after finishing 1-1. The Astros may just decide they'd rather have Fiers in the Monday game over LMJ against Texas if it came to that.
Pitcher Splits vs. Opponent Saturday H. Santiago (LAA) 3-0, 30.1 innings, 1.48 ERA, 20 Ks, 17 hits, .159 avg. @ C. Lewis (TEX) 1-3, 21.2 innings, 8.31 ERA, 19 Ks, 31 hits, .348 avg. Sunday N. Tropeano (LAA) 0-1, 6 innings, 6.00 ERA, 4 Ks, 7 hits, .304 avg. @ C. Hamels (TEX) 0 innings I would think Angels win tomorrow, meaning Astros absolutely need to win.
And you're presuming the Astros win on Sunday regardless... or if the Astros lose, the Angels will lose. It still has elements of trying to get "too cute". If you need to win on Sunday... you go with your better pitcher.
Watching MLB network right now. Two interesting stats: 1) Since 1990 five AL pitchers won 20 gms and had an era 2.50 or lower (which now includes Keuchel) and all of them won the CY. 2) The Angels have won 15 of the last 18 games against the Rangers in Arlington.
