This is 2 years in a row Kazmir has wilted in the last quarter. Whoever signs him, I don't expect it to be us, would probably be wise to limit his innings somehow. Sit him for the first month maybe. Being able to give 20-25 great starts still has a lot of value, although obviously not as much as a guy who is a workhorse for the full season.
A month ago, probably most thought Kaz would have gotten more than Shields. But now I think you're right, his wilting two years in a row at the end of the year has really hurt his value, and he's not getting any younger. Wondering how much money he has lost this past month on his next contract. Still think someone will pay him $60M over four years, but it won't be the Astros.
I never thought he was a viable option for the Astros; he was either going to pitch his way into a huge contract, or be average (or worse) and not figure into the team's future.
My valuation of pitchers must be way off, because I can't comprehend him getting that many years or that much money. He has been downright terrible for almost 2 whole months.
As terrible as he has finished these last 2 seasons, his overall ERA is still 3.33. which is really good. A terrible finish doesn't eliminate a spectacular start. 15 mill on a short term contract really isn't a huge number. In a competitive market somebody will give him that.
Yep, after Scherzer's contract ($15M per year for 14 years), none of these contracts really surprise me anymore. Scherzer is the better pitcher, but his numbers the last two years haven't been that much better than Kazmir's, and they're the same age.
I hope the team doesn't consider pitching Kaz in a tiebreaker or wild card game. Normal rotation would have him pitching the Wild Card Game if there was a tiebreaker game. I'd probably go with Fiers in a tie-breaker, which would be his usual spot, then throw Keuchel on short rest in the WC game. Earliest I'd consider pitching Kazmir would be a potential game 4 in the division series, which would give him plenty of rest. I do think the team has to consider leaving him off the 1st round postseason roster, but I don't think they will do that.
Yeah, highly doubtful they completely eliminate him as a potential starter... but also equally unlikely they start him in any game prior to starting Fiers. He just looks fatigued. Inconsistent life on his fastball. Breaking stuff consistently being left up. Not sure a week off will do the trick... and at the very least, Hinch has no problem pulling him early if it appears he's not fooling anybody (last night was actually not terrible... till he gave it all up..... whereas previous bad starts were just struggles from the get-go).
He also looks overwhelmed by bad results; I'm shocked, and a little disappointed that it's been this long and no one has made a Matt Schaub comparison...
Fatigue can still explain that though... he's physically hanging by a thread, and his body doesn't have the extra gear to overcome errors in the field (or by himself). I've also seen pure "mental" stuff in baseball manifest itself quite differently... usually if its just that, guys are wild/all over the place at the onset. His August/September numbers since 2013 have looked awful... his arm just starts to give out. (not sure if this was overlooked by the front office, or they just were wishful thinking it prior to the trade...)
If I were the Stros I would still try to re-sign him. Despite his struggles he is still not a bad middle to back of the rotation piece for the first half of the year.
Resign him while his stock is low (now) and then trade him when his stock is high (next year's trade deadline)
This is the type of run that either makes you or breaks you. He's teetering. You can see it. Wild pitches, errors, hit batters, walks. And then the homers. He's a decent pitcher, but if he has the shakes then we gotta cut bait early next year. It's a shame. But that is what is happening out there and everyone can see it.
I don't do this much...but I agree with you. There's little reason to spend what he's going to ask when the rotation is already filled out with a healthy Feldman and with what we have waiting in the wings.
