But the front office will dig deeper to that... as a lot of the lineup's problems this year stemmed from a gluttony of players that couldn't get the job done (regardless of HR potential) with their more than deserved plate appearances. We have first-hand evidence that it is possible to have a negative impact despite hitting a lot of HR's... because you have to factor in everything from defense to consistency (remember, wins above replacement is a cumulative stat that can be impacted by longer and longer stretches of poor performance, despite a few hot stretches here and there). $5 million can still net you a club controlled player with defensive ability along with a hit tool... (not to mention, this farm system still has likely options in-house that will exceed what Carter has subjected everybody to the last two years). But you're basically advocating him to be in the everyday lineup next year knowing full-well that a prolonged slump is not only possible, but very well likely... and at that point, you admit taking him out is the only logical solution. I understand he has elite HR power... but that is all he has, and this team should strive to be better than to harbor absolute one-dimensional players (hell, even Marisnick brings a base-running component, along with his elite fielding).
They could acquire one for Valbuena, or make a prospect trade like they did for Gattis... they could give Tucker a full off-season to try and become something other than a DH (at the very least, I couldn't see him being drastically worse than Carter)... or they could go with a stop-gap like Duffy till Reed is ready. Also, you're presuming super 2 is their cut-off... when really, they've promoted AAA players sooner than that (Springer, McCullers... who had been promoted to AAA, despite not making a start). Not sure what else Reed would have to benefit from in AAA, and he does fill a need. And as far as flipping Carter goes... I don't see him being a key part of any significant trade (more like an additional player as part of a bigger package).
We can split hairs over just where, precisely, he'd fall on the depth chart - I thought we agreed it'd be behind AJR/Ed Reed (or whomever earns the job out of spring training). And if so, at ~$5MM, that's a poor use of limited resources, IMO. He actually had more PAs the previous year - and 8 fewer HRs. This year, his HR pace is 28. You're picking an obvious outlier - bolstered by two months that ran roughshod over roughly four months of fairly pedestrian production - and assuming it's the norm. If the risk is that he *might* hit 40 HRs elsewhere, I'd be OK taking that risk because the likelihood is minimal. If you're more generally concerned that he'll hit *a lot of HRs* elsewhere... I'd still be OK with it. Again, that's *all* he does. I understood that as a possible reason for not DFA'ing him earlier this year to free up the roster spot - if he was doing *this* for Texas or Anaheim right now, that would indeed suck. But given a full 162-game schedule, I just don't think Chris Carter can make a meaningful impact. Playing time is earned, cardpire; he has fewer ABs because he's been awful this year and the team had to essentially bury him on their bench. Beyond that, OPS is a rate stat. But, sure - add 100 ABs to his total - he'd still be at the bottom of the list. Besides, weren't you the guy jumping up and down, furious at the Astros for not addressing their gaping hole at 1B in July? Now you want them to bring Carter back? As a back-up, he does not have 40-HR potential. Drain your festering, three-year wound elsewhere; it's gross... Fair enough; I don't think there's any chance he'll be back - but, I didn't think there was any chance he'd be hitting meaningful HRs the final week of the season, either, so... Friends?
IMO, this is definitely not a safe assumption. He's not Springer or Correa, and the team is now clearly in contention mode out of the gate. If he wins the job, he starts on the ML roster
There are zero Super 2 concerns for Singleton and/or White, either of whom could likely produce the .653 OPS Carter did for the first two months of '15. The other consideration is Tucker, who they might try and convert to 1B since (I hope) he doesn't have a spot in our OF next year. Throw in Duffy and Gonzalez... Having said that... I'll be curious to see if Super 2 is still a concern for them next year. When you're a 90+-loss team, it makes a lot of sense to consider it; when you have the opportunity to significantly upgrade an 85+-win team, that's an entirely different universe and I wouldn't assume the old rules still apply.
I think they go with Singleton, Duffy, Gonzalez platoon at 1B with White hopefully DH. Reed at Fresno.
I'm advocating for him to be in an improved lineup at the bottom of the order, a situation where his potential negative impact will be mitigated. There's also the chance, however small, that a prolonged slump doesn't happen, and he returns massive value, and either way, I'm betting on his next year being better than this one as his floor. Or they could just retain Carter for a season. They have seen 5 major league atbats from Duffy, and there is a better chance that Jose Altuve is our opening day 1st baseman than Tucker. Reading between the lines, I'm of the assumption that they are confident enough that he is their franchise 1st baseman that they have taken/are going to take every measure to maximize his controllable years. I doubt I'm wrong about this or that the spring will change anything. Correa mashed last spring, and enough offseason moves were made that would have given them optimism that they would be a competitive team which could have benefit even further by starting the season with him on the opening day roster.
The Altuve/Springer/Correa window officially starts its inevitable closing next spring; (IIRC) they have four years (2019) before Altuve/Springer are up for raises, and then a year later, it'll be Correa's turn. I'll be pissed if they're pulling Super 2 shenanigans in April and compromising this window. I don't think they will. The plan may have been 2017 but I think the acquisitions of Kazmir and Gomez provides enough evidence that they will seize the urgency. If Reed rakes in March, he'll be the 1B. ETA: Further, I think they'll rightly recognize that Carter's ~$5MM salary can be allocated into a more productive resource.
There are a number of way they can go. They can always trade for a player like Adam Lind. He only has one year left on his deal and he can DH if Reed proves ready to start. There are just a lot of pieces in play. I wouldn't be shocked if they move Feldman. I could also see them talking to the Nationals about a deal for Papelbon with the Nationals paying the majority of his contract.
Not me. I'd be shocked (pleasantly). The guy? Nope. One of many (everybody)? Absolutely. They essentially removed him from the team and replaced him with nobody, while two 1b's were making waste of the minors. I still don't understand why White never came up. And things change. I'm also the guy who, while the entire lineup had gone to complete crap, advocated that they may as well throw a Hail Mary and put Carter in the lineup and pray that he go on a miracle HR heater to finish the season (Right before Marwin got injured and they were forced to). Not saying this to toot my own horn, as his timely streak is obviously an unpredictable miracle, but things are always subject to change. You have to stay flexible and stuff. Also, once again, and I guess I'll have to continue qualifying this, but my desire to bring him back is all predicated on them strengthening the rest of the lineup, and keeping him at the bottom. I guess he's not a Correa, but why is he not a Springer? Just because the GM's erroneously let him fall 20+ picks further than they should have? His draft number means very little at this point. Their actions speak for themselves, and I see no other reason why they wouldn't have brought him up this season when there was a clear need and he was demolishing the minors. If they didn't care about starting his clock, they could have taken a risk-free look during this season rather than waiting for spring training. I don't think so, but I certainly hope you're right.
Isn't that where we're also hiding our other potential negative impact hitters? Marisnick? Future catcher (or Castro)? A 6 or 7 hitter is still going to get enough AB's to be impactful... and a negative impact is a negative impact regardless of where you're hiding them. As you've gone deeper in the "keep carter!" hole, you've actually made it more obvious as to all the reasons not to keep him... there's really only one, he hits HR's every so often (because when he does hit them, they're usually in a torrid 1-2 week stretch which you can never anticipate when or where its going to happen). Basically, rooting for Carter is like rooting for a lightning strike... yes, its going to happen but its randomness/inconsitency (and the fact he does nothing else) mitigates the overall value of it significantly (not to mention that's salary money that can be applied elsewhere, and that's a 40 man spot that can be applied elsewhere, and there's playing time to dole out to younger more talented guys that he'll be taking up.)
Again - the playoffs haven't happened yet. If he is a key cog in a playoff run, then he'll have earned his salary. If he went 0-for-the-season and then hit 15 HRs in the playoffs and was critical to us winning a World Series, that's $5MM well spent. If there's any player on this team that's capable of going nuts and carrying the team offensively, it's him. It's certainly unlikely, but at this point, he still has an opportunity to earn his salary this year.
Yeah, I'll never understand a single thing they did, related to the first base position this year. Re: Springer - he followed three years of 100+-loss seasons; there was ZERO reason to squander his Super 2 status, IMO. Correa's situation was only slightly different - they signed Lowrie to bridge the gap and they were still a 92-loss team. No reason to squander his Super 2 status, either. Next March, they'll be an 85+-win team with (hopefully) a taste of the postseason - that changes everything. You have to move with urgency; if Reed rakes and he starts in Fresno so we can trot Luis Valbuena to 1B every day, I'll be extremely pissed.
I hope not. If they think AJR/Ed Reed is a potential cornerstone of this franchise, the last thing I want them to do is waste resources on a temporary band-aid.
Marisnick wouldn't be in the everyday lineup. Feels like Cag is starting to rub off on me. Consecutive posts, now posting a hypothetical lineup, but: Altuve, Springer, Correa, LF, Reed, Gomez, Lowrie, Carter/Catcher, Carter/Catcher. Looks pretty darn stout to me. Marwin utility, Marisnick defensive replacement, Moran/Bregman waiting in the wings to replace Lowrie. The immediate future is rather bright.
Unless Reed got called up and is starting tonight, move that talk elsewhere. This is the series thread and none of that is relevant to the series at hand.
