The one that was just as bad (if not worse) for 4 out of the 6 months? Not really... his overall numbers were greatly skewed by 2 really good months (one of them being white hot). On a team not going anywhere, you can tolerate it... on a team that is expected to win, he has too much net negative potential during his bad streaks (which again have encompassed the majority of the last 2 years). And remember, he required a demotion last year to turn things around... and required a full-on benching this year to get to where he is now. He's 29, likely is who he is... I'm not expecting much to magically change with him long-term despite these last 2 great weeks. The core of this lineup is Altuve, Springer, Correa, Gomez. All of those guys have the capability of hitting for a decent average and good power. The rest of the guys can be complimentary... and yes, you could have an occasional all-or-nothing guy around for spot-starts and pinch-hitting roles... but they're going to ultimately go as far as those 4 take them (and that's also presuming that Tucker takes a step forward in playing time next year, and that Bregman basically demolishes whatever minor league pitching he sees and forces his way into consideration for promotion as Correa did). I think they can do better when it comes to lineup construction... and not have to play the whole "should he be benched?" game with Carter when he's going through a bad streak (not to mention the financial resources that can be allocated elsewhere). He's only realistically going to get a chance to hit 40 (or more) HR's on a bad team that will put up with his low or sub .200 average and bad defense, and allow him to be in the lineup day-in/day-out. On a perennially good team, or a team not so financially/prospect service time restricted... he wouldn't have lasted as long as he did here being an everyday player (and if they did stick with him this season, he likely does eventually get close to 40 HR's... while still being a negative WAR player)
I think the biggest need from an offensive standpoint for this team is one (or even 2) above average left handed hitting position players. Maybe Reed is that guy, maybe Tucker blossoms into that guy. Either way we need more lineup diversity, we are extremely right handed heavy.
Maybe from the standpoint of your 4 best hitters (who can all fair decently enough against right-handed hitters)... but the rest of the role players this year were of left-handed origin (Valbuena, Rasmus, Castro, Tucker... and then the switch hitters of Marwin, Lowrie, Conger). They've also faced what seems like an inordinate amount of lefty starters all year... and even with their best hitters being right-handed, they've had their struggles.
Well, Springer missed a lot of time, Correa wasn't here to start the year, and we've also missed Lowrie most of the year. That has hurt us against lefties.
You're unfairly using his WAR against him this year (earlier posts), while discounting last year's to cherry-pick the portion of the season that he played poorly (yes, I realize it was a sizable portion). Regardless, if you told me that 2014 would be the norm, and that, with a stacked 1-6, our 8 hitter could carry us for 1/3 of the season, I'd take that in a heartbeat. Those 4, Reed, and a good corner OF bat added in the offseason. Agreed completely. And those are my parameters for tucking away Carter in the bottom of the order and being completely ok with risking his potential prolonged suckitude vs. his potential world-beating stretches. Fair point, but there's still the "we could have had those 40 hr's on our team", even if the team he were to hit them on doesn't directly effect us competition-wise. Letting him go for ~$5MM just doesn't seem to jibe with this FO's MO. Given the overall sentiment, I'd probably be due some decent odds in my favor in real-world betting, but I'd happily make one of those silly sig bets on him being an Astro opening day 2016. It will definitely be interesting to see how it shakes out.
Along with Carter being bad Carter, Marisnick being bad Marisnick, Conger being worse as a right-handed batter, and none of the existing left-handed batters being able to provide much of anything against lefties.
Why would you pay your 25th man ~$5MM? Or take up what is becoming more and more valuable space on your 40-man roster with a below-average hitter who plays the same position as three young(ish) prospects? Well, he's never hit 40 HRs; if that was just a purposefully high number to underscore the point... I don't think they really care. Or, they'll be thrilled because won't that increase their draft pick compensation if he walks? Regardless, I truly doubt Chris Carter would fetch a decent prospect. Forty-six players have at least 23 HRs this year - Carter ranks 44th in OPS, ahead of Ryan Howard and... (sigh) Luis Valbuena. I would guess it'd be roughly the same as this season has been pretty consistent with his career output, minus his scorching hot two months last season. The guy does one thing very well: hits home runs. There is not another aspect of his game that is not below average. I tremendously admire his stepping up here in what's been a disappointing season. But I can't fathom why the Astros would bring him back.
I would take it on a team not quite ready to contend. The WAR is tangible evidence that even a big HR hitter (even if he's in the 8 spot), doesn't necessarily add to wins. Carter's bad streaks and bad defense can see to that. I would take a player like Marisnick... who even at his worse didn't reach Carter's sucktitude... and hide HIM at the 8 spot. And I'm already resigned that they'll be hiding an inept hitting catcher there too. At some point, you can't hide everybody... especially not players who are completely one-dimensional like Carter. If 1B is the only place Marwin can play next year, I'm taking him over Carter every single day. Sure it does... especially if he's not at all worth the price they're paying (he was not worth the $4 million this year, even with this late surge). They got rid of Fowler when he became too expensive (and not so productive). They've now shown that they'll aggressively promote guys who are ready in the minors. While Luhnow may have some unnecessary sentiment towards Carter... he's going to have even more to his hand-picked guys. Just as long as they're prepared to sit him for long stretches when he becomes ineffective... and if at that point, his replacement is "better", it would just be money wasted. Hell, he was not going to be back THIS year until Marwin got banged up and they were literally out of viable options. As a last resort, he's shown improvement... I hope this front office goes based on the overall picture and very established trends, versus sentiment (and ultimately, they'll have the budgetary reasons at their disposal as well).
You can tolerate having someone like Carter in your lineup IF you don't have Gattis, Castro, Valbuena, Rasmus and Marisnick getting regular at bats. Personally if we are going to keep one of the group, I want it to be Marisnick, he is an exceptional fielder, can run and do little things. I wouldn't even target a DH, just let whoever isn't starting in the field get sometime at DH. Get a 1st baseman and a third baseman, move Lowrie to super sub/Zobrist role and look at upgrading the catching position if possible. Miguel Montero may be available.
If they can land a big power bat to play LF (that would be my priority this offseason) and can find a 1B among Reed/Singleton/White/Tucker, then Carter becomes superfluous, as I assume Gattis (younger, cheaper and an as good, if not slightly better hitter) will be back, perhaps platooning with Tucker at DH. What's Valbuena's contract? He's been equally terrible - but I'd be OK with him being the back-up 1B/power bat on the bench.
Last year, I assumed he was a player who had finally received significant, consistent playing time and had found his mojo. While I still expected him to be streaky, I expected improvement from last year--in that I expected a higher floor and a similar ceiling. What we've seen is that even with consistent PT and now with more evidence over a few seasons, he has an even lower floor, and he will always be extremely streaky (meaning the highs aren't any more likely than they used to be). So I feel like we've learned enough to know that he shouldn't be here ideally. Even if Gattis and Valbuena were gone and replaced with more competent hitters, I still wouldn't want Carter languishing on the bench. The problem is that he doesn't seem to play his way out of slumps, so you just have to sit him down for long, extended periods. That kind of treatment is ok for a guy with minor league options on a lower salary...not for someone who will always be on your bench, wasting a spot.
At this point, that's not certain yet. If he stays hot and helps us make the playoffs and hits some key home runs in to help win some playoff games or a series, he was absolutely worth the money, despite all the craziness in between.
He's at the same level (arbitration and contract value wise) as Carter. He could be moved like Fowler was... especially if they consider Moran/Bregman to be somewhat closer than other's expect. Hell, even Villar has a shot next year as a utility guy. And there's still Marwin who despite his super-sub ability this year, is more of a natural 3B/SS.
He's getting paid 8 times what Gattis is getting paid for the same if not worse production... its all relative, and I believe his production (streakiness and all) is replaceable.
I don't think it's that simple. If he was replaced by someone who had key hits all year and was playing an average 1B, maybe we wouldn't need these key HRs now.
So, is this right?:... Rasmus is a FA, and then Carter/Gattis/Valbuena are all arb-eligible? So they could, in theory, let all four walk? Do they get compensation for them? How does it work?
Its highly unlikely all 3 are non-tendered... Gattis/Carter are under arbitration control till 2019. Valbuena will be a free agent after next season... so if there's one guy they'll actively look to move (again, with impending Moran/Bregman consideration and Marwin/Lowrie/Villar existing), it will likely be him. Gattis will get a pretty big raise... but still will be less than Carter overall. They don't get compensation for non-tendering them.
You'd be the one considering him the 25th man next year, not me (nor would the organization, if they were to bring him back) um, no. my bad, i should have made sure to specify that he only hit 37 a year ago on over 100 less AB's than the mlb leader who hit 40. sorry for misleading and using the number 40. are you purposefully including the amount of players that have hit at least 23 HR's and lumping Carter in with all of them irrespective of their # of AB's to underscore your point? Because he is legitimate 40 hr potential at $5MM or less. You don't have to dig any deeper than that, and I don't think the FO will. Look, this isn't some no-brainer like whether or not a team should sign Peyton Manning or roll with Matty Schaub as their QB. I realize i'm on the wrong side of the odds on this one and the consensus would bet on him starting 2016 on another team's roster. I just think the price of keeping him for another year is small enough, and the risk of letting him go and reward of keeping him is large enough, that they retain him. That's my read.
True, but it's not that simple either. If you're going to play the "what if" game, you can say if he was in the lineup all season and never taken out (and hell no, i'm not advocating that they should have done that), maybe he would have gone on a tear earlier, he would have been worth the money, and we wouldn't need these key HRs now. You can only evaluate the situation by what actually happened.
Don't mean to Cag up the thread with consecutive posts, but one more consideration: We can safely assume that Reed won't be here till the Super Two cutoff date, right? It's also a pretty safe bet, as Nick just outlined, that Valbuena is gone. Where does that leave us at 1st base for next season? Without Carter, Marwin is literally the only available option before Reed arrives. Opening the season with Conger or Duffy at 1st isn't realistic. And they aren't going to commit to playing their super utility player every day at 1b with no alternative option whatsoever. So, they'd just have to acquire another 1b in the offseason. It obviously would not be somebody who they would commit much money or a long-term contract to. It would more than likely be a dirt cheap one, maybe two-year stopgap, and a free agent accepting that type of contract is a guy straight off of the scrap heap. The chances of them being appreciably better than Carter are pretty close to nil. Think Jesus Guzman, Carlos Pena, and the like. It seems like the logical thing to do would be to simply retain Carter for another year at his price while they transition into Reed. They could always flip him at the deadline.
