I agree with this except I think it is likely a wise move for the future to unload Jones instead of something to be concerned. However, I don't think Morey throws this season under the bus. In other words, Jones would likely not be needed if he is traded. I think Motiejunas is going to be either paid by Rockets or someone is going to make Morey an offer he can't refuse.
Why is this a fan concern? Doesn't really make sense why we as fans are so concerned about this issue... I must admit that I have a tendency to still think in 2012 Moreyball mode myself in asset collection mode but last year the Brewer and Prigioni trades signaled a change in direction to true contending mode with heavier weighs on short term focus and less risk with players on short term deals. If we start the year off weak, or there is a logjam at the 4 spot due to impeccable 1st year play by Harrell & great health (we should be so lucky) I could see this being an issue and needing to move a player, but right now I don't see it. I see risk with Monti's back, and Harrell being a rookie who might not be ready to play just yet. That being said, I'm really happy they bit the bullet and signed him. Now everyone knows the roster is what it is, and we don't have trade rumors to worry about all season long. Plus I think Harrell has the talent to eventually cause a log jam at the 4 spot... just probably not next year... especially with the Rockets past history of marinating their youngsters in the D-League their rookie year. The Rockets can still be players in free agency with both D-Mo & TJ as RFA. If they land a Durant type, they are going to be well over the cap anyways so then like the Parsons/Bosh situation. If that fails then you take a gamble that you can get both guys back on deals that are tradeable at the end of the day. Morey did well enough with Beverley and Brewer this offseason in a year where everyone was getting the max. If Montrezl creates a log jam a year or two from now, you just need to make sure both D-Mo and TJ are on good enough contracts to be moved... or maybe Dwight is out of the picture at that point, and you're playing smaller with D-Mo at the 5..... who knows, but I think we need to back out of the 2012 Moreyball mentality personally. There is risk in taking players to free agency, but there was risk in taking Brewer and Beverley last year as well.... but aren't we still glad that we traded for Brewer and we might be very glad we held onto Beverley as well this upcoming year.
Also, for every Beverley and Parsons there are several more guys that get guaranteed money and don't pan out. I think Morey explained this to Parsons when Parsons asked if Morey could renegotiate his contract (he couldn't).
Only two moves invoked the hard cap: signing KJMCD and Harrell. Nothing else affected that. It is unlikely either is a rotation player.
Harrell will be pressed in as a rotation player. I believe he will become a productive player by the February deadline as a workhorse/ disruptive defender. KJ needs minutes to produce, and he will have to work hard to beat Thornton out. He has good upside, I am not upset at having him on the team.
They aren't rotation players right this second, but they give you flexibility in making trades, whether or not they are included. Not saying you disagree, but I know some are probably thinking this and wondering "why?" For example, assume we trade Brewer, DMo, and Dekker to Atlanta for Al Horford. We're going to be very happy we've got McDaniels and Harrell to step into backup roles.
Also... think of it from the perspective of the GM. The GM is taking a risk on any unproven rookie player. Lots of rookies probably aren't really good enough to play in the league. The GM gives them a shot and pays them. But they end up being terrible. So they are paying a terrible player because they have to... they signed the contract just like the player did. Unproven rookie players haven't earned anything yet. They are being payed on potential. So the GM is taking a risk in any rookie they sign. Even the bottom of the barrel rookies are going to be making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. And if they end up being a rotation player, they'll get paid millions in a few years. I hardly feel sorry for someone in that situation. If that is getting taken advantage of, I'll get taken advantage of any time.
Exactly. Think of all of the players who have been paid hundreds of thousands of dollars or more but aren't really worth it. So many players get paid lots of guaranteed money to get cut or never play and never pan out. Hasheem Thabeet has made nearly $12 million in 4 years.
For all y'all complaining about being hard capped... when is the last time cap room scored a point or grabbed a rebound?
I think much of this is true. Next offseason, with Jones and Motie in free agency we suddenly become pretty vulnerable at power forward. It's an unknown whether having Harrell under contract helps at all in that situation though; it depends on how good he looks as a player a year from now (something I won't drink the Kool-Aid on until he plays). But, having him on a cheap contract next offseason certainly won't hurt. But, this season we have Motie with lingering back issues, and a green rookie in Harrell. Jones should serve, and there's a couple of guys we can play out of position at the 4, but injuries could really expose us this season. Hayes was good insurance in that scenario. He might not be a Josh Smith type, but you can rely on sound, intelligent minutes from him. But the alternative didn't have to be ditching Harrell anyway. The ideal scenario would have been year 1 guaranteed at the minimum and year 2 unguaranteed. That would have given us the flexibility to add Hayes and any other players we wanted this season without hardcapping, and would still keep Harrell in the fold next offseason while we deal with Jones/Motie. This route has 2 drawbacks though: (1) Harrell might have insisted on more money than that, and (2) it doesn't give us full bird rights upon expiry. On the latter, that'd mean Morey prioritized 2017 flexibility over 2015 flexibility. On the former, it means Morey prioritized Harrell over flexibility. Either way, I guess he really believes Harrell is going to amount to something. One thing this whole business does is set the bar of my expectations high. I'm going to be dogging him pretty hard in a couple of years if he doesn't really make something of himself.
-Winning. -Keeping the most talented players on our teams roster than we can in order to win a title -Stability -The ability to retain talent to contend year after year & -Not worrying about Les' pocketbook would be key. I think it was important to understand why Morey was doing what he was doing back from 2012 to 2014, the cap in general, and its still important to understand this now still, and have value on flexibility in general. However in this particular situation, it shouldn't really matter from a fan perspective in this one situation as both D-Mo & TJ are both RFA and in theory the Rockets should be able to do what they need to do in FA next Summer before resigning and matching both players if needed. Then its just about how much Les is willing to spend in lux tax. If the team that is on the roster now is the best collection of 15 players you can get, even if you have to risk letting a player walk next Summer, you should root for that team to be put in place. If you place future assets collection over real time player on-the-court-value then you are weakening your current position to win. -Of course trading expendable players for future assets would be the ultimate best case scenario because your current situation isn't weakened and your future situation is strengthened... but that's the big question nobody can really answer until we get questions answered .... like the Montrezl Harrell question. Hopefully that makes sense. "Some folks" around here have comprehension issues as I'm sure you've noticed.
The trade flexibility is sapped by being hardcapped. We could have McDaniels and Harrell to step into those roles without signing Harrell to a 3 year deal, which hardcaps us.
In their defense, you do seem to pack a lot into each post. Must be a very fast typist. Sometimes, I'm browsing through a thread, and I have to lock down my focus like I'm reading Edward Gibbon when I get to one of your posts.
Technically true. However, hard cap wouldn't be much of an issue if Rockets weren't close to the hard cap. Harrell likely is in the rotation while DMo is hurt. McDaniels may or may not be in the rotation. Brewer vs McDaniels may replace the Jones/DMo argument while DMo is hurt.
Sorry it's something i need to work on this season. Condensing and trimming the fat on posts. However there are a few folks here where you could literally repeat what they said but provide a counter, and they respond like you just told them to go F themselves. Unfortunately context isn't that easy to keep brief and is necessary.
