I understand pythagorean in theory - but how does it reconcile blow-outs, which, in baseball, tend to be anomalies - yet they can have a pretty sizable impact on the data? Here's why I ask: the Astros have six wins by 10+ runs; they have not lost any games by 10+ runs. And sure enough, when their run totals are adjusted (ie minus those six blowouts), their expected winning % drop significantly (.586 to .530 - a 10 +/- win differential). The Rangers, meanwhile, have been on the receiving end of a lot of blow-outs (6 10+-run losses to just 2 10+-run wins). And, again, when adjusted, the win expectation changes significantly (.478 to .511). This is the deepest dive I've ever done into pythagorean - but it sure seems like those anomalies are skewing the numbers. So is the idea that... good teams won't get blown out a disproportionate amount of time and so the anomalies are not discredited, or...? It just seems like, in "normal" baseball games, the Rangers are a lost closer to the Astros.
The basic premise behind the numbers is overall player productivity. Your team can't really control how the runs are scored. They are going to allow and score a certain number of runs over the course of a season and there is no actual skill in distributing them. For the runs to come in blowouts is bad luck as opposed to conveniently scoring enough to win while allowing all the runs in blowout losses. The biggest part of it is the myth that a team "just knows how to win". Much like the NBA, good teams win most of their games comfortably. Close games often trend towards 50/50, with good teams only being slightly better than bad teams in that area.
Yeah, I wasn't slighting him on the catch. Would have been a great catch if he had made it (not routine). Pound for pound, he's the most valuable key in the Astros lineup... when you combine his power, walk ability, speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths in general. Correa is right behind him, but he's not as finished a product.
right..not routine at all but at the same time they took a bit of a nose dive since he's been out of the lineup when it comes to consistency based on everything you've said about him as to what he brings to the game. Altho not routine those are plays he's been known to make. Based on that the past few games in my opinion has been a re-adjustment period and it appears to be about over based on last nights game..time will tell of course. I'm also speaking in regards to team chemistry as well. First time Gomez is playing with Springer in the lineup for example etc...
Is starting pitching, we've had 1 to 5 quality starters, RAngers did not have Hamels nor Holland for the majority of the time. For most of the season they had Lewis as number 2 and Wandy 3 or 4???? With a rotation like that, you know you are going to lose some games by a lot of runs. We are more consistent, it happened with McCullers, after he became number 2 staters, all others were in spots where they were/are very good. Also, we hit a lot of homers, we are going to score a lot of runs in some games, but, when we don't hit homers, with good pitching, we lose low scoring games. Maybe that is part of argument about run difference.
So... with the Rangers behind today... this thread is awfully quiet. I thought that we weren't going to win the division anymore due to the lead that we had slipping to a game?
Today's game was an expected loss for the Rangers, as they faced King Felix, the problem for the Rangers was losing to Nuno, that was a Nono. Is like the Astros, losing to Gray on the road is not a problem, is losing to Doubront the problem. This was a big loss for them, but when you play 4 game series, is tough to win 3. Tomorrow we play the Angles, the Rangers play the A's. We need to win of 3 as they are facing Bassit, Nolin and Doubront, they should win 2 of 3. If we lose 2 of 3, they tied us again in loss column with 4 games at Texas. I would love to have a 1 game difference on the loss column before facing them.
They air Root Sports just the same though and are also watching Astros games more now because of the race.
Well, you can feel that way, but the results suggest it is a very reliable barometer of what teams are in the playoffs
Lewis back on track, now with 15 wins. I think they win tomorrow, and lose on sunday. Go Astros, we need a win tonight big time.
Come on Rangers, PLEASE, lose a lot more games because that is the ONLY way we can win our division. We need you guys to suck because we are definitely not winning many games to win our division, but i am counting on you guys to lose a lot of games so we can win the division.
Why don't you save yourself the consternation and aggravation and just start rooting for a team that is sure to win their division. You are what is wrong with sport's fans. Essentially, the Astros could lose every single game and this season - on the whole - could be counted as successful. They will be playing meaningful baseball well into September and not many Astros fans expected that to happen. They have introduced a star in Correa for years to come. Keuchel has solidified his place among the game's elite pitchers. Altuve continues to impress as a hitter (now he just needs to work on his baseball intellect). They have a loaded farm system. I have been following this team since 1962 and this is the most positive I have ever felt about the future. Also, your use of the word "we" is embarrassing to the Astros as you, yourself, admit that the Astros won't be winning enough games to win the division. Your ridiculous knee jerk reaction to individual plays or managerial decisions disrupts intelligent conversation and observations.
You use an interesting word, AWFUL, and you know, i agree, because that is the word i use of how we are playing, awful, and for us to win the division, well, other teams have to play even worse, because we are not taking care of business, we need other team to lose. Team in playoff hunt: I will not put the Royals because they are already in: Yankees 5 and 4 Toronto 6 and 3 Twins 6 and 4 Texas 6 and 4 L.A. 6 and 3 And the road warriors are 3 and 6 All teams that are fighting for the playoffs are winning in September EXCEPT for 1 team, yes, OUR ASTROS. We are losing series to Mariners? A's?Come on, how are we going to hold the lead playing like that? We've played very average for a looooooooooooooong time. Now is not even average, is AWFUL. and we end the season with 6 games on the road? Ahhh, no problem is vs bad teams, right???? Remember Doubrount. Remember the A..... and no, is not the Alamo, is the A's. This team can't win on the road. So yes, the post is awful, but how would you describe the way the Astros are playing in September?????
