Catchers are a different breed, same as shortstops. How is his defense? I noticed you didn't mention that at all, but that is really the only thing that matters (unless you are Mike Piazza). If he can hit more than a little bit and play good defense he will be in the bigs. And why do you consider an 8th round pick "gravy"? Those kind of guys are solid players quite often.
Tellitlikeitis already had commented on how he was throwing out baserunners. The only position that doesn't need to hit at all is the pitcher. Everyone else needs to add something, otherwise Roberto Pena would be our big league catcher right now. Tyler Heineman is a well regarded defensive player, who has thrown out base-runners 40% of the time in his minor league career who carries a .288/.364/.409 minor league line and is currently in AAA. Heineman is a guy I like, and that is who I compared him to. Because most 8th rounders never make the majors, and the ones that do are most likely to be nobodies. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/3/2255951/mlb-draft-success-rates http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/one-in-six-draft-picks-will-click/
BA's Minor League All-Star Team 2015 First Team: 1B: AJ Reed Second Team: 2B: Tony Kemp OF: Brett Phillips (traded) OF: Domingo Santana (traded) SP: Joe Musgrove http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/minor-league-star-team-2015/
8th round picks aren't gravy as at least one player drafted 8th every 4 years is expected to be helping his MLB team at some capacity to be on even footing with the rest of the majors. Granted, an individual pick doesn't hold too much value, but 3rd through 9th round aren't much different in terms of value relative to drop from late 1st round picks to beginning of the 3rd round. Teams have to find guys in rounds 3-9 even though most will be nobodies.
Wow David Paulino rose very quickly on our top prospect list. What do you guys think of Danry Vasquez? The other guy from our Jose Veras trade.
A bit of an unknown quantity. He did not dominate in hitter's paradise Lancaster last year. This year in AA Corpus Christi Hooks he started awful but finished well. He is still very young (21) for AA. Vasquez's path to the MLB is uncertain.
You are probably over-stating the value. 25% of 8th round college players are making the majors, but the 10% of those were listed as bench-warmers, which are generally players adding no value to the team. That leaves you with 15% of college 8th rounders on average adding real value. Astros 8th round MLBers of the last 20 years are Jake Buchanan, Brooks Conrad, Cory Doyne, & Chris Sampson. Sampson was the best of the bunch with a 2.2 WAR, and that was thanks to being converted to a pitcher. You definitely have to find guys in later rounds. Sometimes you find guys like Dallas Keuchel, or role players like Preston Tucker, but you don't carry high expectations on any one player selected that late in the draft, especially early on. And mind you, that data was compiled back in the day when teams could pay an 8th rounder anything they wanted.
Not a guy at this point. Supposedly has a good hit tool but is limited to LF defensively without the requisite power for LF. Since being promoted to AA this year, he's also really struggled hitting .245/.294/.300 for a whopping 67 wRC+ and .054 iso.
I don't consider Vasquez a serious prospect. He's a guy that is considered a defensive liability and limited to LF. He has very little power, average speed, and while his BB-rates and K-rates aren't bad, they aren't special. Paulino's problem was health, but he has shown he is healthy again.
Speaking of Domingo Santana, OPS over 1000 in 66 at bats for the Brewers. Walking and hitting bombs too.
I just don't understand giving up on Domingo Santana; after years of having him as a top prospect. I know that the way it seems the trade unfolded was something like this: Gomez --- > Santana and Hader Fiers ----> Brett Phillips International signing bonus ---- > Houser Gomez was a proven commodity. Santana obviously has holes per the Astros analysis. Fiers came in to relieve innings off Velasquez and McCullers toll.
Gomez has back to back all star appearances, a top 10 MVP finish, and a gold glove. He's also got another year of relatively cheap production .By acquiring him now, even if we don't sign him long term, we'll get a comp. pick for him next year. It doesn't take rocket science to see Santana's hole. He went 0 for 17 with 14 Ks last year. He did better this go round, but still had a 40% K rate - he wasn't going to be helping this year. We needed to get Marisnick's bat out of the lineup without sacrificing on defense, and this deal accomplishes that. For what it's worth, Gomez appears to be heating up - OPS is over 1.000 here in September.
I don't think the trade breaks down like that. Gomez was the headliner and Philips was the big piece going back. Santana is the classic big tools, low floor guy that always gets his shot on a crappy team. If the Astros were 2013 bad you can bet he'd be the everyday right fielder. It's not a stretch to see him develop into Nelson Cruz but it wasn't going to be this year. Gomez is a former all-star with a year of control left (plus the comp pick if he leaves) and Fiers is a solid ML starter with 4 years of team control left. That's a huge amount of big league value. Basically Philips or Santana would need to become multi-year all-stars for the trade to favor the Brewers. If both do, it's obviously a win for the Brewers. I don't think anyone is projecting much more than relievers out of Hader and Houser.
Put another way, Fiers is probably worth 8-12 WAR over the 4 1/3 seasons of control they acquired. Gomez is probably worth at least 3-4 WAR over his 1 1/3 seasons of control. At least one of those 4 prospects has to break out in order for the trade to just be even.
I may be overstating. Even then, 15% is not gravy. It is a crap shoot, but teams have to get some players in rounds 3-9. I don't see how using the Astros as an example that drafting poorly in rounds 3 through 9 (I see little difference in these rounds and if one of these rounds are gravy, they all are) doesn't matter. The Astros drafting prior to the current regime over the last 20 years placed the Astros at a huge disadvantage.
I'm just using them as a clear example. They didn't actually draft poorly in all those years in all those rounds, but any one player that exceeds expectations is gravy. FWIW, the drop off is larger than you are giving credit. 3-5 rounders were 10.1% of the time in the league for at least 3 years. 6-10 only 6.6%. 1-10 vs 1-15. I realize that is no where near the drop off from 1st to 2nd, but I'd still consider it significant.
With a rotation of Strailey, Wojo, Appel, and Obbie, there is no way we lose the championship at triple a.
That is a major league quality rotation. Of course all of those guys have huge question marks, but they are all on the cusp of getting to the next level.
