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So far, the Rockets have been much better with Hartenstein at C versus Capela -- Why?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by HotardAg07, Nov 19, 2018.

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  1. HotardAg07

    HotardAg07 New Member

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    [​IMG]

    Quantitatively, the story seems pretty clear thus far...

    With Hartenstein on the court for 127 minutes of time, the Rockets are scoring 120.9 points per 100 possessions and allowing 101.6. When he's off the court (594 minutes), the Rockets are scoring 111.7 points per 100 possessions and allowing 116.1. Therefore, the Rockets seem to be way better on offense and on defense when Hartenstein is on the court.

    Hartenstein is primarily the backup for Clint Capela, who has played 500 minutes and sat 221. When Clint has played, the Rockets score 113.7 pp/100p and allow 114.9 pp/100p. When Clint sits, the numbers change slightly to 112.9 and 110.1, meaning that the offense is slightly better with him on (basically the same), but the defense is slightly worse.

    Explaining these figures, part of it is simply that Hartenstein's minutes loads have gotten bigger as the Rockets have played better for reasons outside of Hartenstein -- gotten healthier, been shooting better, and stopped playing some of the team boat anchors (MCW, Melo), while Capela played a lot of minutes during the morass when there were some rumors he wasn't completely healthy.

    However, I think if you want to draw a larger conclusion, I wouldn't say this is any evidence that Hartenstein is better, but maybe just a sign of the fact that his value is working. When Capela plays, teams have started game planning to negate his defensive impact, choosing not to isolate against him, but rather to draw him away from the rim on some wing defender to reduce his rim protection. However, when Hartenstein plays, teams seem to want to attack him, but don't seem to be very effective doing so. His length and hustle seem to be forcing teams into lower percentage plays. Offensively, he contributes to those 5-out looks that are so dangerous with Harden and CP3 at the helm, giving both free driving lanes to the rim with no rim protectors nearby.

    I'm sure the statistical edge won't last forever, but I'll keep watching him closely to see if it proves to be more than an anomaly.
     
    #1 HotardAg07, Nov 19, 2018
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  2. mockster

    mockster Member

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    Hartstein has what?, played a whole 60 minutes of nba time total?
     
    #2 mockster, Nov 19, 2018
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  3. farhen

    farhen Member

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    too much weeds bruh
     
    #3 farhen, Nov 19, 2018
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  4. Audioout

    Audioout Member

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    Interesting. Wonder if he'll develop a reliable 3. If so, wow, what a find.
     
    #4 Audioout, Nov 19, 2018
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  5. 1Deep

    1Deep Member

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    Even with stats to back it up I still don't believe you.
     
    #5 1Deep, Nov 19, 2018
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  6. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    First of all... great work!!

    Second of all... I think you answered your own question.

    Third of all, even if something like this continues, the Rockets killer advantage last year was that even when their bench came in, they were still generally able to operate at starter-esque net production because you almost always had 2 of the 3 of Harden/CP3/Gordon on the floor. Meanwhile, for at least half the teams out there, when meaningful bench players come in, their squad gets worst...at least compared to what the Rockets are rotating in.
     
    #6 JayZ750, Nov 19, 2018
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  7. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    the numbers are clear . . . :rolleyes:
     
    #7 Os Trigonum, Nov 19, 2018
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  8. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    New JCDenton?
     
    #8 chenjy9, Nov 19, 2018
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  9. BigBum

    BigBum Member

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    worse on offense + worse on defense = Melo + MCW + Chriss

    How can you trade these guys?

    Keep them = keep the money under mattress.

    What is your resolution? Knight show up soon?
     
    #9 BigBum, Nov 19, 2018
  10. Downtown Sniper

    Downtown Sniper Contributing Member

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    Well we can add this to another one of holic's burner accounts.

    He got in a long time ago to plant this one.
     
    #10 Downtown Sniper, Nov 19, 2018
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  11. BigBum

    BigBum Member

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    Thread starter has only 4 messages in 8 years. How can he remember the password?

    I like this thread though.
     
    #11 BigBum, Nov 19, 2018
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  12. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Tbh I've been wondering why teams dont isolate him more as guys can easily blow by him. Despite, that I'm happy hes playing well and hope it continues.
     
    #12 HP3, Nov 19, 2018
  13. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Imagine how big the difference would be if Hartenstein got a layup instead of fumbling the ball out of bounds every time Harden and Paul passed it to him!!
     
    #13 DrNuegebauer, Nov 19, 2018
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  14. cerophilik

    cerophilik Member

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    If he could just grab passes or finish at the rim he would be good.
    I think the reason they might be better is because Capela loves to switch even when they don’t need it or even when the other guy like Ennis or Chris are trying not to switch and stay with their man.
    Once the switches happens it is all down from there u less the other team misses but most of the cases the might get the rebound anyway.
    Also Clint thinks he is helping us by switching and believes he can keep up with a guard. Most of the cases he can’t or the mismatch inside gets them an easy bucket.
     
    #14 cerophilik, Nov 19, 2018
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  15. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    Holic is anti-stats and all about his feels. So this ain't holic.
     
    #15 Haymitch, Nov 19, 2018
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  16. BamBam

    BamBam Contributing Member

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    You’re ignoring the ”Jeckylle and Hyde” hypothesis! Otherwise, it would be quite a conundrum to reconcile...o_O

    .......
    .......
    .......
     
    #16 BamBam, Nov 19, 2018
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  17. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    That's how he fools you. ;)
     
    #17 Easy, Nov 19, 2018
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  18. ThunderStruck

    ThunderStruck Member

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    Did you check on NBA.com and look at those same numbers over the last 9 or so games instead?
     
    #18 ThunderStruck, Nov 19, 2018
  19. Zoplicone

    Zoplicone Member

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    Because basketballholic has watched every second of Tyus Jones’ basketball career since Duke, and watched 75% of it multiple times.
     
    #19 Zoplicone, Nov 19, 2018
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  20. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #20 hakeem94, Nov 19, 2018
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