1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Too many cooks ... means somebody's always cooking

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Will, Apr 26, 2017.

  1. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    5,049
    Likes Received:
    8,973
    I was a skeptic of stacking our team with so many shooters and scorers. We had Harden. Did we really need him AND Gordon AND Lou? How many scorers can you put on the floor at one time? And how many 3-point shooters? Did we really need those three guys plus Ariza, plus Anderson, plus Beverly, plus Troy Williams, plus bench jackers like Bobby Brown?

    Then I watch the games and b**** about the turnovers and cold shooting: "Jesus, Lou Williams sucks tonight." "Please, God, give me Ryan Anderson's minutes, and I'll hit a better percentage than this." "All Capela has to do is catch the ball. Is that too much to ask?"

    Now I wonder whether the two things are related. Are D'Antoni and Morey just playing the percentages?

    I think of playing the percentages this way: You sign players who have proved they can shoot or make plays. Then you put them on the floor and let them do it. But if you're really playing the percentages in a more sophisticated way, maybe the game has two layers. First you sign the shooters and scorers. Then, within each game, you see who's scoring, and you shift your bets. You give more minutes to the guys who are performing.

    Right about now, you're thinking: "Idiot. That's called running a basketball team." Yes, it is. But to make it work, you need a healthy denominator. You can't be OKC. You can't be over-reliant on one guy, or even a few guys, who have the ability to score. Even if you have five scorers, some have to rest, and some will be cold, and often, you're out there with maybe one or two who are having a good night, and the others are just praying.

    What D'Antoni has is a surplus. And that gives him greater freedom to pick and choose. If Anderson sucks for a game or even a whole series, that's OK. We can survive it, because Lou or Gordon or Beverly or Ariza is hitting. If Harden's gassed or his ankle is rolled, but Lou or Gordon is getting to the basket, we switch drivers. If Capela is playing like he's wearing Sam Dekker's cast, we run the P&R with Nene instead. Harrell gets minutes during the season, and Williams gets some at the end, so we know we have those cards to play, too.

    Basically, here's my question: Is our system and our roster designed to withstand subpar performances from some of our players on any given night? When idiots like me watch the game and think, "Anderson can't hit anything, we're going to lose," is D'Antoni just thinking, "No problem, let's try Lou"? Do his crazy stockpile of scorers, and his crazy strategy of jacking 3's, combine to form an integrated analytic system that's just as reliable as any methodical Popovich offense?

    To answer that question, we would have to look at how D'Antoni allots PT as games go on, and how closely it correlates with shooting percentage or other indices of performance. We'd also have to watch Harden, since, possession by possession, he's choosing who handles and who shoots. Maybe some of you have already done this. I'd be curious to see what you've found.
     
    Scarface, Blatz, ElDobleK and 17 others like this.
  2. Pizza_Da_Hut

    Pizza_Da_Hut I put on pants for this?

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2003
    Messages:
    11,323
    Likes Received:
    4,118
    I think you're right, but I also think D'Antoni also weighs in potential too. Not just a hot swap, but he let's things play out a bit, and for players with higher potential he gives them more of a shot to reach their average. Anderson was garbage in that series, and he kept getting chance after chance after chance to pull himself out of it. Maybe if Dekker was healthy we might not see that? But I gotta believe the payout of a Ryno who could hit his shots was too alluring not to let it play out longer. As you said, it's playing the percentages and gambling here or there. None the less, great perspective on the matter.
     
    topfive likes this.
  3. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 1999
    Messages:
    62,479
    Likes Received:
    56,052
    I will say with a great deal of confidence, MDA does not adjust PT mid-game, based on early performance. In fact, he makes a big point of not doing so, as he doesn't want his shooters to think he'll pull them if they miss. He's said that. And it is also demonstrable in his set rotations and when guys come out and who replaces them. His style is to be the same every game wrt PT and rotations, certainly relative to other coaches.

    That said, he most definitely changes which plays he runs based on opponent defense and hot/cold hand. And vs OKC, he most definitely has allotted PT in the 4Q according to results. He has played Capela and Ryno less and less in the 4th Q as the series progressed. And of course, he did play small-ball with Ryno at "center" awhile, but he did have the luxury of Kanter being OKC's center at times, and OKC did the same thing with Grant at "center" a few times...or Gibson.

    bottomline: MDA's style and comments are to not pull shooters for missing...as he believes it gets into their head. But in playoff 4th Qs, all bets are off, as he played Lou/Nene much more, and he isn't afraid of testing match-ups, e.g., going with 5 shooters/no center
     
  4. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2008
    Messages:
    13,534
    Likes Received:
    10,522
    ^This. MDA's rotation of who plays quarters 1-3 have been pretty stable but the plays we run with which players have changed. How much of this is MDA's directive and how much of it is Harden himself riding the hot hand can come into question sometimes. 4th quarter however, he has been going with whoever has been getting the job done that game.
     
    heypartner likes this.
  5. Will

    Will Clutch Crew
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    5,049
    Likes Received:
    8,973
    3 things we all noticed in this series:

    1) Harden being paired (and asking to be paired) with Nene rather than Capela.
    2) Anderson passing the ball, or trying to fake and get closer, in situations where he normally would shoot a 3.
    3) Harden directing the ball to a particular guy to run a possession. Usually Lou.

    So I wonder how much of the shift in plays or PT is effectively being decided by Harden, and whether Ryno is changing his approach in-game based on his own anxiety, or what the coaches or Harden are telling him.
     
    saleem likes this.
  6. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2011
    Messages:
    27,724
    Likes Received:
    21,397
    Too many cooks but only one head chef (cornerstone Harden) so it's a good thing and works well. Cooks know their place in the pecking order and report to the head chef

    Problem we had in the recent past was two head chefs (cornerstones Harden and Dwight) and no cooks. Two heads clashed over authority.
     
  7. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 1999
    Messages:
    62,479
    Likes Received:
    56,052
    I don't agree that PT has been changed much at all, except in the 4th Q. Remember, Capela only averages 24 mpg.

    I'm sure Harden has freedom like Nash to call for different plays and different PnRs. But I'm pretty sure MDA will point out to him when to switch from the PnR with the Big to 41-High with the 4, where Capela and Nene are instructed to camp at the rim, so Adams was pinned in place and couldn't help. In other words, the coaches would be helping Harden understand where the help is coming from and what plays work best in given scenarios. But yeah, in the 4th Q, all bets are off wrt Capela/Ryno getting normal PT, if they are sucking.

    As you can see, I'm not a big fan of a "Is it Harden or MDA" angle here, black or white stuff...MDA gives him a lot of freedom like Nash. So, I'm not really agreeing or disagreeing, just providing a take that isn't concerned with a black or white story angle.

    As for Ryno, yeah, his confidence looked broken. He couldn't lose Gibson, even when Gibson was showing on the Ryno/Harden pick and pop.
     
    saleem likes this.
  8. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2002
    Messages:
    42,706
    Likes Received:
    2,968
    Capela and Nene is a perfect example of how MDA is the

    TOP CHEF

    Or whatever I don't watch cook shows

    One night/dish you need oregano the next basil

    Every game is a different dish
     
  9. DavidRocket

    DavidRocket Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2009
    Messages:
    2,450
    Likes Received:
    2,557
    This is my concern. Ryan needs to be assertive and just shoot it. It's a long game, and the more he shoots with confidence, the more he will make.
     
    Rocket River likes this.
  10. DavidRocket

    DavidRocket Member

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2009
    Messages:
    2,450
    Likes Received:
    2,557
    While quite a few of his drives towards the basket yielded good results, I still would have preferred Ryan just take those initial 3s. He's not going to ever get all day wide open looks. 1/2 is the best he will get and he can certainly knock those down. He just needs to be assertive and let it go.

    Don't worry about missing. It's the worrying about missing that will render him extremely ineffective.
     
    francis 4 prez, saleem and heypartner like this.
  11. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2002
    Messages:
    42,706
    Likes Received:
    2,968
    Seriously with the shooters it's not a percentage

    It's their offense

    It's a shooter cake

    It's no different from when Rudy T rode whoever got hot that night
     
  12. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    13,473
    Likes Received:
    5,401
    Funny you mention Ryan getting chance after chance even after showing his shot wasn't going to click any time soon. But on the other hand after game 1 Billy Donovan (after his epic lip read to Mo Cheeks) decided there was no way Kanter was getting consistent minutes. Coaches and their philosophies on players and their contributions on the court are extremely unlike minded.

    Even though his shot wasn't falling D'Antoni knew that Ryan could provide help in other categories ala assists, offensive rebounds and low post "defense". Hell his presence alone should have created at least a few more wide open threes for his fellow shooters as you can't just sag off of him and EXPECT him to miss every shot.

    It's been a great balance of gambling and strategy throughout the first round with D'Antoni, hopefully that strategy doesn't falter against the Spurs or Grizzlies in the next round.
     
  13. Pizza_Da_Hut

    Pizza_Da_Hut I put on pants for this?

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2003
    Messages:
    11,323
    Likes Received:
    4,118
    I also think, that's just who MDA is. He has faith in his guys, and he concentrates on the makes as opposed to the misses. I mean look at the confidence boost Anderson and Gordon got just from coming here. Not all of that is just playing with the Beard.
     
  14. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2001
    Messages:
    26,573
    Likes Received:
    35,627
    Everytime I see this, it looks to me like Harden drove himself pretty hard for a few possessions and wants someone else to take a turn while Harden takes a quick break. And that's fine. That's why we have a team.
     
    saleem likes this.
  15. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2002
    Messages:
    42,706
    Likes Received:
    2,968
    The Rockets had a remarkably healthy season

    The last month of the season was played to set the playoff rotation

    It isn't changing. Rhyno shot falling or not
     
  16. vator

    vator Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2006
    Messages:
    6,571
    Likes Received:
    13,912
    When we added Lou, my argument was that this was a much needed move because whenever Pat Bev or Gordon struggled or missed a game, our offense suffered immensely. I felt that having another Eric Gordon level scorer off the bench would not only buffer the potential drop experienced by those guys missing games, but also give us a much better chance of maintaining our offensive efficiency because the hope would be that at least one of those guys would be having a good offensive game. With Rhyno and Ariza basically going on the back of a milk carton simultaneously this series, having those two guys coming for us was so huge. I hadn't even considered the possibility that Anderson and Ariza would shoot so poorly for an entire series. Having more weapons does increase our room for error and by that I mean it gives us a chance to weather the storm of poor shooting nights by several of our key guys. The hope is that 2 or 3 guys have it going and you can ride them to a win. On a good night when a bunch of them are hot, you just sit back and watch the fireworks!
     
    Hakeemtheking likes this.
  17. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2003
    Messages:
    58,702
    Likes Received:
    36,146
    The Rockets have copied the Warriors strategy from 2014-16 in that they can now throw a ton of relatively interchangeable parts at you and can play the same way regardless of who is on teh floor.

    Gordon, Williams, Harden, Beverley, Ariza all at least nominally share some similar skills -and can all, at least to some extent, drive, spot-up, or pass (some much better than others) and you can play any of them on the court at a given time. Likewise Capela and Nene both provide you the same result w/the same role albeit from different packages. The only real outlier is Anderson but even though he's 6-10 he does a lot of the same things as the wing players on offense at least.

    Remember the Rockets previously had vastly different guys cycling in and out and had to change styles repeatedly - Josh Smith, or DMO or Dwight or Joey Dorsey or Michael Beasley gave you completely different things in the front court as did Brewer/Prigioni/Terry in the backcourt.
     
  18. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2002
    Messages:
    42,706
    Likes Received:
    2,968
    This even goes back to Lin

    I often write how Morey always wanted a guard like Gordon next to Harden

    This is the p
     
  19. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2008
    Messages:
    13,473
    Likes Received:
    5,401
    Agreed. The system has definitely helped (D'Antoni being a huge part of the implementer/brain behind it) our new additions to gel/transition with our past seasons roster almost seamlessly.

    I can't say enough to how much this team has grown from top to bottom within a seasons time. Wish I wasn't the only one and others could see this too beyond this forum.
     
  20. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2001
    Messages:
    43,069
    Likes Received:
    25,082
    It normalizes offensive adjustments, but defensive rotations are important too.

    Too many cooks but not many Gordon Ramsays to stop the line.
     
    pgabriel likes this.

Share This Page