Let’s look at the roster by position (as they're played now for the most part): 5. Capela, Nene, Harrell Combined these guys give All-Star stats. Solid. Good chemistry. No changes needed. 4. Anderson, Dekker Combined they also give All-Star stats. Also solid. Good chemistry. No changes needed. 3. Ariza 2. Gordon, Williams Two 6th man candidates, All Star stats, elite. 1. Harden, Beverly A superstar and a needed defensive presence in Pat the Bulldog Beverly. Ariza is best when he’s not playing TOO MANY MPG. IMO 25 seems like a good number (like on the Lakers champ team when his FG% was 4.5% higher than now). When he’s fresh and not physically and mentally fatigued his basketball IQ and shooting goes up. When he’s overplayed, both of those go down (which we’ve seen because up to this point he's had no help). To be at true championship contending level, we need each spot to produce All-star stats without players deviating too much from their natural position in our system. There's a few ways we can fill our weak spot at the 3: 1. The preferred option - Add a SOLID ~ 37%+ from 3 and D (in our system) who can be a net positive on the floor ~ 15 MPG (enough to keep Ariza fresh). If they're a natural 4, move Dekker to the 3. (Note: Each players avg MPG to soon be added to this post). 2. Add someone like Bogut, who would be for certain matchups and spot minutes when we need some extra physicality, hard fouls and tough screens. This gives us 4 bigs we can interchange by matchup. This moves some of Harrell's minutes to the 4 and some of Dekkers to the 3. 3. Both of the above for bonus points! 4. Add a player similar to Ariza, but who's an All-star (Paul George...), be willing to replace Ariza with him. Option 4 doesn't seem possible until next season, so for now here's hoping we can get options 1, 2 or both. Whatever the situation, this season I don't think we should trade any players in any of the spots mentioned above. The chemistry and balance is too good. Otherwise, trade picks and any/all players not in those spots above. What I'm curious to know is... if we go with the 3 and D option, who do you guys think that should be? EDIT / ADD-ON: When we're not enduring a brutal schedule (with a certain spot playing too many minutes) we're one of the better rebounding and defensive teams in the league. Our biggest competition (Dubs and Spurs) don't kill us on the boards. Teams that do are a tier or two below us and we should be running and shooting them out of the building anyway (the only times we don't are when we're fatigued due to schedule and the weak 3 spot). Most players play best when sticking to one spot. Less mistakes, more locked in. We don’t need to be constantly switching players in and out of spots (Dekker at the 3 and 4, Williams/Gordon at the 2 and 3, etc.) to make up for the glaring hole that’s there. We can achieve consistency and no weak spot through the options mentioned. Everyone plays their spots, simple. Efficiency goes way up all around. (I’m not yet taking the time to support all of these claims with advanced stats, but will do so if this thread gets enough views/replies. Anyone else is welcome to do so).
You can play Gordon, Dekker, and Williams spot minutes to give Ariza rest. I'm sure we will see a decent amount of Harden/Bev-Williams-Gordon. The big deadline for us is in March: if a backup center (think a second Nene) frees up we are set.
By far the weakest spot on the Rockets is their front court. It's a house of glass built upon a house of cards. You have old man Nene who can't play every night and is an injury waiting to happen and Capela who hasn't really stepped into the position as much as we would have hoped......then you have nothing. Technically Harrell plays the 5 a bit, but he's really a PF so he gets absolutely curb stomped by any real center.....it's safe to say that the team DESPERATELY needs an upgrade there even if they don't realize it. At the PF you have Ryan Anderson who also is an injury waiting to happen and then......I dunno you play Harrell as a center so I guess Dekker becomes the only PF on the roster after that? The Rockets are 2 very likely injuries away from having the worst front court in the NBA.
I personally would give away everything we can (not in the 5,4,2,1 spots) for Paul George. To me then we are really set.
Then again, a few days ago I also would have given away everything not in the 4,3,2,1 spots for Cousins (try to keep one center though). But now this is what we have to work with.
Dekker is a not a true 4. The guy is a 3 playing more of a stretch 4 role. If anything, they just have a general weakness in the front court in terms of rebounding and defense at both the 4 and the 5. And how does OP figure Capela, Harrell and Nene are providing All-Star level production? Between his examination of the 4 and 5 position, I don't think he has any clue what an All-Star level player is capable of producing.
Dekker needs to hit 40% from 3 and be able to guard 2's and 3's when covering the opposing 4 is the best matchup for Harden. Capella needs to jump like he did his rookie year.
mightybosstone - Our system is small and fast. For the most part - the smaller and faster, the better. Typical big 3s become 4s and some 4s (Harrell) become 5s. Look up our 5s combined stats and tell me it isn't All-star production.
StrawberryJamm - I think Dekker can produce that if he sticks to his 4 spot while not having to switch to the 3. I think Capela will improve with consistent minutes while getting enough rest (IMO Capela, Nene and Harrell should split the 5 3 ways most games)
Yup, this is truth. Our bigs don't do much defensively(Capela excluded) and are relatively fragile. Houston needs a true rim protector who can lock down rebounds. The Achilles heel of our style of game is you can't get badly out rebounded by the other team or you risk losing. We also need an "all defense" lineup to put in when we need a few stops. Can't have us blowing 20+pt leads all the time...
glimmertwins IMO if a team like the Heat were in the West and a tier or two up, I would be worried about rebounds. With our current shortcomings we're still better than every team but the Spurs (debatably) and Dubs and I'm not worried about rebounds against them. All defense lineup? Capela, Ariza, new 3 and D guy, Beverly, Harden (we still need to score) And with new 3 and D guy (or 3 and D All-star for Ariza) I think we could take the Spurs and make the Dubs series at least 6 games. As we are now, I think Spurs would be favored in 6 but maybe we get the upset. Against Dubs I can only hope for better than a gentlemen's sweep this time.
Well, let's just hope something falls in their lap because Morey opted to not take care of it before the deadline.
Got rid of one major weakness which was non contributing scrubs taking up space Ciao Anus and Kevin McDonalds
FTW Rockets FTW I'm glad I'm not the only person who loved yelling Ennis' name in an angry southern accent
