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[RealGM Analysis] The Mistakes Donatas Motiejunas Made In Restricted Free Agency

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Os Trigonum, Dec 7, 2016.

  1. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    courtesy of @J.R., and ON EDIT: screw @FTW Rockets FTW


    RealGM Analysis
    The Mistakes Donatas Motiejunas Made In Restricted Free Agency
    by Christopher Reina

    Dec 7, 2016 5:27 PM

    Restricted free agency is rarely settled after the start of the season and that’s because most players and agents comprehend their shortage of leverage within the construct that leaves them with limited options that favors teams from the outset and becomes even more punitive as time progresses.

    The new collective bargaining agreement will contain a few fixes to help the players, but Donatas Motiejunas is testing the limits of the current system as its final restricted free agent. Motiejunas agreed upon an NFL-style contract in restricted free agency more than a month into the season, signing an offer sheet with the Brooklyn Nets worth $37 million deal over four years.

    For Motiejunas, the deal presented a number of significant issues when it was matched by the Houston Rockets:

    1. Regardless of whether the Rockets matched, the deal was exceedingly short on guaranteed money. With non-guarantees for Year 2, Year 3 and Year 4, Motiejunas gave up guaranteed money while not getting player options in return. Motiejunas can’t get back onto the market until 2020 if he stays healthy and outperforms the value of the contract. The structure of the deal is rare for players on their second NBA contract and more closely resembles the type of contracts NFL players sign that limit the injury risk for teams.

    Players will typically exchange freedom for guaranteed money or guaranteed money for freedom; Motiejunas gave up both.

    2. With Motiejunas presumably wanting to leave the Rockets after a long stalemate, he signed an offer sheet with the Nets that didn’t do nearly enough to disincentivize them from matching. Motiejunas was likely more concerned in making himself less tradeable in the short-term, something of long acknowledged importance to Daryl Morey, than the actual monetary value of the deal.

    Motiejunas’ signed a four-year deal with $31 million as the base salary plus $4 million in likely bonuses and $2 million in unlikely bonuses. The Rockets were not required to match any of Motiejunas’ bonuses as they weren’t a principal term and that gave Morey a veto power to basically wipe away more than 15 percent of the potential value of the contract B.J. Armstrong and Motiejunas signed with the Nets.

    It can be presumed that Motiejunas and Armstrong didn’t realize they would only be receiving $31 million compared to $37 million if the Rockets matched, as Motiejunas previously stated he would happy if he returned to Houston on this deal prior to his current position being established.

    3. By signing a uniform player contract with the Nets, Motiejunas has given nearly entire control of the situation to the Rockets. Motiejunas can’t go to Europe now that he’s signed an NBA contract because FIBA likely won’t grant a clearance. Motiejunas could be subject to fines on top of the missed salary. The Rockets matching the deal was something that had to be accounted for and not reporting isn’t a viable option.

    4. Motiejunas perhaps erred most significantly in not signing the $4.4 million offer sheet by Oct. 2nd that would have allowed him to become an unrestricted free agent in 2017. Motiejunas would have been forced to play for less than his true worth for this season but he would have entered the 2017 offseason as an unrestricted free agent and one of the best centers on the market.

    Once he let that deadline pass, Motiejunas was forced to decide between a multi-year deal with the Rockets he didn’t like, sign an offer sheet with a rival team the Rockets could match or sit out the year and reenter restricted free agency again in 2017.

    ----

    The Rockets can allow Motiejunas to go back onto the open market to find a new deal even though one is unlikely to materialize since only the 76ers and Jazz have meaningful cap space. Houston would be creating an unwanted precedent in letting Motiejunas out of the offer sheet he signed, especially since the deal is team friendly. Players will often begrudgingly remain with their incumbent teams when offer sheets are matched and if the Rockets allow Motiejunas to rip up the offer sheet, it could embolden players in the future to threaten to not report. Rival teams are surely putting pressure on the Rockets to not let Motiejunas out of the deal.

    The NBA has a more rigid structure in place than the NFL, which prevents holdouts and renegotiated contracts from even happening and that ultimately benefits both the perception of the league as well as the working relationships between players and teams.

    The only risk for the Rockets is that he injures himself after the March 1st guarantee date when they won’t be able to get out from under his contract to use his money in cap space.​
     
    #1 Os Trigonum, Dec 7, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2016
  2. FANfrom86toNow

    FANfrom86toNow Contributing Member

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    I hope this write up with shut up the NUTS that think DMo and BJ are smart and making good decisions, and that our beloved Rockets are making bad decisions and PR moves. It's ridiculous and silly to think anything other than BJ has mislead DMo and they are both stupid when it comes to how RFA works.
     
  3. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    Holic ain't phased
     
    Deuce, arabrocket, Tha_Dude and 4 others like this.
  4. duluth111222

    duluth111222 I.D.I.O.T

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    Neither is DD
     
    DudeWah likes this.
  5. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Where is the "He Hired BJ Armstrong to take on Morey" mistake.
     
    RudyTBag likes this.
  6. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Excerpt

    Players will typically exchange freedom for guaranteed money or guaranteed money for freedom; Motiejunas gave up both.
     
  7. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    What a dumb article. Has he not been reading Holic's posts?!?
     
  8. Pen15clubber

    Pen15clubber Member

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    Put DD and jopat on their own radio show but don't plug in anything
     
  9. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

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    YOu can apologize OP but I am still in on the FIRST PAGE but no popcorn this time

    Remember restricted free agency is a risky business but _holic is always right.
     
    arabrocket and Os Trigonum like this.
  10. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    I'm taking my apology back
     
  11. Moleb

    Moleb Member

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    This is very informative. I appreciate OP for making a new thread for this. A quality post like this would've have been buried in the piss poor "first page" posts that are plaguing clutch fans at the moment.
     
  12. Blake

    Blake Contributing Member

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    I don't see how the blame does not fully fall onto BJ Armstrong. I guarantee you he had no clue about the incentives not having to be matched and now is in panic mode and is giving DMo terrible advice in telling him to hold out.

    DMo clearly doesn't want to play a small role on this team but he appears to have been given horrible advice by a crappy agent and his RFA has been a total and complete train wreck.

    If he did know we didn't have to match the $6MM (doubtful), he looks just as bad as any agent with half a brain would realize that the two most likely outcomes are 1) having your player be super pissed with a long term, non-guaranteed deal (crazy in the NBA) for less money on a team where he won't have a feature role, which is a terrible position to put your player in (at least negotiate a deal that has to be matched $ for $ so your player isn't disgruntled) or 2) hold out and make your player look terrible and then lose the one deal it took you 25% of the season to actually get

    Total bush league. Feel bad for DMo...trusting and listening to a damn fool.
     
    Easy, kjayp, snowconeman22 and 2 others like this.
  13. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Surely DMo can read for himself?
    There has been little to no support for his position - it is one thing to say you knew nothing and some schmuck fooled you, it is another thing to keep on listening to said schmuck. DMo is in this up to his eyeballs, he is as butthurt as Parsons.
     
    snowconeman22 and DudeWah like this.
  14. Blake

    Blake Contributing Member

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    I'm isn't DMo's job to understand incentives and matching. I'm sure he is butt hurt, but probably due a lot to the fact that his agent was probably promising him the world and telling him what a big contract he was going to get and he believed it. He may be poison now if we do bring him in, but BJ made it a helluva lot worse signing a deal like the one he did with the Nets. No team would pay that extra $ for someone who may not even have more than a limited backup role and he is going to be pissed at our front office, all because his agent negotiated a bad deal since it could be matched
     
    DudeWah likes this.
  15. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Sure BJ made it bad. So why hasn't DMo fired him yet?

    You can't just pass the blame on forever, at some stage point the finger at the big guy himself for being complicit.
     
    J.R. likes this.
  16. Blake

    Blake Contributing Member

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    I would imagine he will if we terminate the deal tomorrow and nothing else materializes.

    I don't think DMo is totally innocent here but it wouldn't be the first time a professional athlete kept taking bad advice.
     
  17. juanm34

    juanm34 Member

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    Clearly DMo could of demanded the contract be written up In The Lithuanian language? Right?
    How the hell do you make a 6million dollar mistake?
    I would of read the contract forwards and backwards. What an incompetent duo we have on our hands. Smh...
     
    FANfrom86toNow likes this.
  18. PeppermintCandy

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    The clearest write-up of the situation I've seen. Good stuff.

    This has got to be playing a big part in the Rockets' handling of the situation.
     
  19. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    BasketballJopatmcholic claims that until DMo passes his physical or the Rockets waive the request, he's not actually under contract.

    This says otherwise: "3. By signing a uniform player contract with the Nets, Motiejunas has given nearly entire control of the situation to the Rockets. Motiejunas can’t go to Europe now that he’s signed an NBA contract because FIBA likely won’t grant a clearance. Motiejunas could be subject to fines on top of the missed salary. The Rockets matching the deal was something that had to be accounted for and not reporting isn’t a viable option."
     
  20. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    Dmo just needs to sack up and come in for the physical . There are 3 worst case scenarios and both are not the end of the world.

    1 Dmo fails the physical , he still gets 5 mil guaranteed and goes to the Nets who passed him . There he has a chance to stay healthy and produce until March where he can get the second year guaranteed ... Total earnings about 19 mil

    2. Pass the physical and play for the rockets . Gets 5 mil guaranteed . In this scenario can't beat out Dekker or harrel or nene for minutes , lilkely gets cut in Jan or March and then becomes UFA . Sure his stock is down but if healthy will still get a contract

    3 , passes physical but then gets injured. Depending on when we decide to cut ( in injury is severe or to the back ) can make anywhere from 5 mil to 16 ( if he holds up until March)

    In the scenario he is choosing right now he is making 0 ,He looks like a player with questionable character , and he looks like an idiot for keeping his agent.

    I can almost guarantee you that if he fires his agent the new one tells him to go in for the physical . Even if he loses 1 million per year in likely bonuses , if he is playing well enough to earn them he will make that cash back with endorsements.

    He is European so he likely has companies in Eastern Europe that will want his name on things if he is successful and also if he plays for the Rockets he can always get a shoe deal in China .

    When CBA experts and former agents are confounded by the play then it probably means that there IS NOT one .

    Also if Dmo is truly truly butt hurt and only wants revenge on the rockets the only way to effect the team is from the inside . He can't raise a fuss in the locker room if he's not in the damn locker room * I do not want this to happen*

    Unless the known experts can piece together a coherent strategy that BJ is using I think we have to assume there isn't one.

    I think BJ is telling Dmo to wait until the new CBA comes out in January?? But even then would dmo's case fall under the old rules ? Since he signed a contract then he legally should .

    The best he can hope for is RFA in March but really having to wait for the summer ( barring CBA changes) where even under a worst case scenario now he makes 5 million by January .

    What a mess
     
    No Chance likes this.

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