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Wondering about salary cap/expiring contracts/trade options…

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Glendelicious, Jul 5, 2005.

  1. Glendelicious

    Glendelicious Member

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    There are a bunch of free agents we’d love to see in Rockets uniforms, with only an MLE to spend. However, we’ve a bunch of expiring contracts, and a few valuable, relatively cheap vets, to consider in deals. What I’m wondering is, what are the trade values of these expiring contracts and “cheap” players? They seem to give Houston a lot of flexibility if teams still dig expiring contracts like they did under the last CBA.

    Below I list expiring contracts and (my assessment of) tradable players/contracts. I try to be reasonable in my assessment, so I leave off Howard’s virtually untradable contract, and even though I’d be surprised if the Rockets trade Sura, his contract is movable and his value is potentially considerable for a team not scared away by his injuries.

    (Salary note: these are approximates based on Clutch’s player profile section. Does anyone have the exact salary numbers for next year? Most of these salaries escalate, e.g. I presume Weatherspoon isn’t making 5.445 million next year. I only have Moochie’s exact numbers.)

    Expiring contracts

    Ward – 2.5
    Weatherspoon – 5.5
    Baker – 4 – assuming he exercises his option
    Norris – 4.2
    Wesley – 5

    Tradable players/contracts

    James – 3.4
    Sura – 3.75

    So the Rockets have about 22 million or so in expiring contracts and 7 or 8 in other tradable assets (pending exact salary numbers.) Taking into consideration what we know of the new CBA and trade rules in general, what can be done with these contacts?

    One assumption I’m making is that no team is going to trade a 13m per caliber player for the expiring contracts of Wesley Weatherspoon and Ward. That would eat up three roster spots for cap space and only one usable player. However, is it plausible that the Rockets could do a sign and trade using Wesley and Ward for a 7.5 million player? RealGM accepts Wesley and Ward for Kurt Thomas (mix and match as you will.) No, I know Thomas isn’t going anywhere; I’m just using him as an example, because I’m pretty sure 7.5 would fix the Rockets nicely at power forward. So how valuable is 7.5 in cap space? For the Knicks, such a trade would leave them something like 35 mil over the cap, so it might not make much sense. But what about a team looking to create cap space to resign a guy next year, or...whatever.

    Please note, I’m not terribly interested in debating the wisdom of trading James or Sura. Needless to say, they were valuable contributors, but for the sake of this discussion, let’s assume that they would be moved in a trade that would bring more value than what they can provide.

    Thoughts?

    Hope you all had good weekends,

    Michael
     
  2. GATER

    GATER Member

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    It's almost a done deal that Kurt Thomas is headed to PHX for Q.
     
  3. Chilly_Pete

    Chilly_Pete Member

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    I think he was just using Kurt Thomas as an example.
     
  4. GATER

    GATER Member

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    You may well be right. In that case, using one of the 4 PF's the Rockets are pursuing may have been a better example choice. :)
     
  5. Glendelicious

    Glendelicious Member

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    Yeah, but that leads to the endless (pointless) debates on how much of a salary a player is going to command. Somebody who really, really, really loves Houston will take the MLE after scoring 20 and 10 a game last year??? The Bulls are going to offer Chandler a max deal??? You dig?
     
  6. dharocks

    dharocks Member

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    If we want to acquire a PF with just expiring contracts, LaFrentz is probably our best bet... And while he's still maddeningly inconsistent and no where near the shotblocker he once was (yet still a foul machine), he wouldn't be a bad fit at all.

    But that contract, as bad as it is now, is gonna be UGLY in a few years. Still, it's definitely a move worth considering.
     
  7. xomox

    xomox Member

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    i think we should cut howard to have more to spend on a swift or simmons deal. get us moving forward faster.
     
  8. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Member

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    Was this irony?

    Juwan has about 4 years left on his contract. Paying all that money out and getting no production in return? Nyet.

    Besides, we'd still be over the salary cap.
     
  9. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Here are numbers from last year from:
    http://www.nationwide.net/~patricia/misc/salaries05.txt
    I think you need to add about 10% (not exact, but close) for most.

    So by my estimates you have:

    EXPIRING CONTRACTS
    CW – 6.4
    DW – 4.9
    VB – 3.8 (assuming he exercises his option)
    Ward – 1.9
    Norris – 4.2
    (Note: realgm and Bender don't show Ward or Norris with team
    options, but I think they are there making them effectively expiring contracts)

    TRADEABLE assets (excluding Tmac and Yao)
    MJ - 3.4
    BS - 3.5
    JH - 5.9
    LH - 800K (but not for 3 months)
    a trade exemption with about 3.5 mil left

    PICKS
    -1st rounders: We have all our own and own nobodies (e.g., 06, 07, 08 etc). But, we can't give up consecutive picks unless we acquire another one of those years.
    -2nd rounders: We have the NY 06 pick (MoT trade), but don't have our own until 08 (06 & 07 went to Milw for the James deal)

    Overall we have lots of expiring contracts and some modest assets (MJ, Sura, probable late 1st rounders, probably early/mid 2nd rounder). With the new .25 +/- rule, we only have to give up 75% of the incoming players salary in a trade, and we have lots of combinations (especially if MN or CW have team options) to get close to that figure. Overall we have lots of flexibility, just not much of substantial value in assets. I'd say Sura and James have pretty good contracts relative to their production, thus are probably worth very late 1st/early 2nds outright. So we have quite a few late 1st/early 2nd round type value pieces. Of the expiring contracts Wesley is also some productive, so you get an expiring contract and someone who could give you something next year, so he could be of interest for someone looking for a stop gap starter or high quality vet bench two guard whose contract then expires after that service.

    Also, the trade exemption could be important, it means we can eat a bad contract with up to a 3.5 mil hit next year to facillitate a deal. For instance we could eat Tsakalidis contract in a Swift deal, or say if Boston wanted to clear Perkins off their roster and books in a Walker deal.

    For example, lets say Swift wants to sign with us. He/his agent goes to Memphis and says he is going to sign with the Rockets, for an MLE if they have to (6 year about 30 is the max)--which would leave Memphis high and dry. However he could convince them to facillitate the trade to start the deal at say 6.1 mil with 10% raises (say 6 years about 46 mil).

    We could say trade Wesley and a future 1st rounder for Swift (signed for 6/46 mil), and in a seperate deal use the TE to eat Tsakalidis's with 2 years and about 6.5 mil left on the books. Memphis saves a little money over 2 years and gets a late 1st round pick for facillitating a trade of player who is going to leave anyway. You could sub James (or Sura) and Ward for Wesley in there too, and then Memphis has a much cheaper but still effective alternative PG to Watson or J Williams.

    Now lets look at Walker and given the same assumptions (Boston is faced losing him for nothing or facillitating a S&T). Say Walker and us agree on a 5 year deal for 39 mil (starts at 6.5) pending Boston cooperates. Boston could use a vet PG too for a year or two, as GP may leave (and would be more expensive too keep) and their other guys are young and unproven. They could take their pick between James and Sura + NY 2nd rounder + filler (Baker/Mooch/CW) for AW signed at 5years/39mil. If they want us to take Perkins off their hands we can do that with the TE.

    In a nut shell I think we have a lot of flexibility and could do appealing moves for either Walker or Swift when those teams are faced with losing them for nothing. The key thing is convincing their current teams they will walk (AW would take an MLE, Swift with take an MLE or has other suitors with cap room) if they don't cooperate.
     
    #9 Desert Scar, Jul 5, 2005
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2005
  10. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Member

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    Scar- I put this in a different thread, but again, Head can't be traded until December 15 (into the season), and the trade exception was a remnant of the Francis-McGrady trade, which expired last week.

    We do have two trade exceptions worth a little over a million each from the Reece Gaines trade and the Mo Taylor trade.
     
  11. Glendelicious

    Glendelicious Member

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    Thanks for the great clarification and analysis Scar.

    I like the idea of getting Swift a lot; I loathe Walker's game. He hasn't wasted quite as much talent as D Coleman did, but Walker's up there with Coleman in the annals of NBA coulda-shouldas.

    As for Swift, consider the worst case scenario: he turns out to be as big a bust (production for cost and duration of contract) as Mo Taylor. Well, Taylor was still talented enough that he did serve a sort of high-post Johnny Newmanesque role for us. If Swift were to be a total bust and only give a MoT level of production, it would still mean having a superb shot blocker off the bench to rotate to the penetration so that Yao doesn't have to. Understand, I want Swift because I believe in JVG, and think he can bring out Swift's upside, which is...what? A young Theo Ratliff? But at worst, well...it ain't my money.
     
  12. Glendelicious

    Glendelicious Member

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    Hey Nike, presumably these exceptions can be used together in one trade? I guess the expired TE was effectively worthless after the trade deadline.
     
  13. swilkins

    swilkins Member

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    I don't see JHo going anywhere and if we do get Swift, I don't see him starting at the beginning of this season. Maybe later, but he'll have to prove he's the right man to start.
     
  14. xnareshx

    xnareshx Member

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    Norris and Weatherspoon get paid a lot more. Ward gets paid less. The rest are about right.

    I also think we should waive Howard once we reach the luxury tax range.
     
  15. dharocks

    dharocks Member

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    Except cutting Howard won't do anything toward helping us sign Swift or Simmons...
     
  16. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    I know it was a while for Head once the contract was signed, Dec 15th it is. He would be out of the picture then off course.

    That's too bad about the 3.5 exemption. We kind of got screwed out of using it by the longer moratorium/CBA negotiations, you would think we could get credited that time to use it. Using it for a deadweight contract like Tsakalidis might have made Memphis price a lot less to play along.

    The only thing those other exemptions might be useful is a late 1st round pick with little hope (like Gaines last year), but Kendrick Perkins from Boston might fit that bill.
     
  17. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Yes TEs cannot be combined or used with seperate exemptions. To be used they must stand alone and completely cover the returning salary players (no 100K/.25 leeway either).
     
  18. Rockets2K

    Rockets2K Clutch Crew

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    actually Scar, I seem to recall NIKE said that the 100k thing was still used but the 25% wasnt...
     
  19. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    He is probably right then. Still, within 100K isn't much leeway. The new returning player has to be just at (within 100K) or less than the TE and TEs cannot be combined for a player who makes more than either TE alone.

    Around 1 mil TEs could only be useful as a minor salary removal tool or freeing up a roster spot of another team to the degree rookies flat bomb (likely late 1sts with multiyear deals) or a vet with a lot of experience who signs a multiyear deal at the vet min then gets injured or otherwise proves worthless (A. Griffin).
     

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