Trade for Tori Hunter

BranJ17 · 05-27-2002, 02:27 AM

The Astros need a CF. I love Berkman to death, but he just can't get the job done out there, he doesn't have enough range. Now we need to start looking for an everyday CF, and I think Tori Hunter is one of the best out there, that may be had.

Do we trade Hidalgo or Ward? I'd say Hidalgo, but he makes so much other teams would balk at a deal w/ Richard. At this point I'd do anything for a CF, so Ward sorry man you got to go. We have enough Prospects to pull off a Ward and Spects for Hunter deal.

If this doesn't work out, I hear there is a pretty good CF in Cincy, that the fans want out.

BigM · 05-27-2002, 02:58 AM

after the first paragraph i thought you were trading berkman for hunter and i was gonna go off.

i agree though, hunter would be perfect for this team, but he'd be great anywhere. i'd trade ward and a prospect for him but i don't see minnesota jumping on it. we'd get laughed at for hidalgo, his contract is too big.

BranJ17 · 05-27-2002, 03:03 AM

I'd say that if I had to trade between Hidalgo and Ward, and I didn't think about the money, I'd trade Ward first.

Hidalgo may not have the average of Ward, but batting average is the most over-rated offensive stat in baseball. He gets on base just as much, and hits for better power, not to mention he is a much better Outfielder than Ward is.

For the record the most important offensive stat in Baseball is On Base plus Slugging, Batting Average means nothing.

bobrek · 05-27-2002, 09:59 AM

With the Twins fighting for a pennant and literally fighting for their survival, please explain to me why the Twins would trade their best player? Why do they need prospects when they may not be around next year? A potential stadium deal is iffy at best. The best chance for their survival is to win a pennant.

Incidentally, Ward is currently leading Hidalgo in average, slugging, OBP and OPS. Hidalgo is clearly the superior outfielder.

Major · 05-27-2002, 11:50 AM

I'd trade Hidalgo simply because they might want someone who plays centerfield. On the other hand, they aren't going to want the $8MM in salary.

I think it would take Ward + Redding to get it done -- Minnesota probably won't want prospects because (1) they are trying to make the playoffs this year and (2) they might not exist next year.

That said, I would do that deal in a heartbeat. We can find another 5th pitcher while Mlicki is down. As good as Redding is, that's all he is for us right now. This instantly upgrades out defense from average/bad in both CF and LF to good in LF and gold glove in Center. Also adds some speed to the lineup.

Torii Hunter would be the perfect fit for this team -- the challenge is getting him, I posted this on AstrosConnection a while back and they all disagreed, which told me its a good idea.

Apparently, Hunsicker talked about him a few days ago as well, but said he wasn't willing to destroy the farm system to get him.

That also solidifies this team at all 3 outfield spots, SS, and 3B defensively and offensively (along with the top 3 pitching spots). With Burke at second, Lane converting back to first, and a stud catcher in a low minors, this team would have all the pieces (if they could afford to keep them) in the long-term.

bobrek · 05-27-2002, 12:29 PM

We can do this deal all we want, but Minnesota won't. The Twins know that once they get everyone healthy, the division is theirs for the taking. There is absolutely no reason for them to trade their best player for Ward and Redding. They are set at 1B, DH and LF so Ward doesn't noticeably upgrade them at those positions. Regardless of how Redding has pitched his last 4-5 starts he would currently be no better than a 4th starter (behind Radke, Milton and Reed).

Torii Hunter would be a great fit for the Astros (and a lot of teams), but in the Twins current state, there is absolutely no way they trade him. He is quite possibly the best CF in the AL this season.

Major · 05-27-2002, 12:47 PM

Regardless of how Redding has pitched his last 4-5 starts he would currently be no better than a 4th starter (behind Radke, Milton and Reed).

I guess due to the names/history of those guys, that's true. (similar to us) But their starters are pretty crappy:

Reed: 4.23 ERA
Milton: 4.93 ERA
Radke: 5.08 ERA

A Redding couldn't hurt, but I can see why they wouldn't be interested. Hunter is probably a crowd favorite, there, I assume due to his defense.

On an unrelated note, Look at these two dudes in their bullpen. WOW.

J.C. Romero: 29 innings, 0.31 ERA
Mike Jackson: 20 innings, 0.89 ERA

Combined, they have pitched 49 innings (or 5 1/2 games) and given up 3 runs. Oh I wish we had Mike Jackson back!!

Add to that Leroy Hawkins (27 innings, 1.9 ERA), Tony Fiore (20 innings, 2.13 ERA) and Eddie Guadardo (23 innnigs, 3.05 ERA) and that's one amazing bullpen.

kidrock8 · 05-27-2002, 12:48 PM

Minnesota might not even do a Hunter for Berkman trade.

The Twins are built around speed for their fast track at the Metrodome. Berkman would instantly become their slowest player in the lineup.

Minnesota has absolutely no reason to trade him.

RiceRocket1 · 05-27-2002, 12:51 PM

I really like the idea of getting Hunter too, but agree it would be hard to pull off. Friday night against the Cubs Ward's slow baserunning hurt us when even I could have scored from second where Daryle was but they had to hold him at third on a single to right. Obviously, Tori Hunter scores on that hit and we win the game in 9 innings. The defensive upgrade would be terrific as well and if I'm not mistaken, Hunter has already hit a lot more home runs than Ward has. I would give up Daryle, Redding, and an ok prospect if it would pry Hunter out of Minnesota.

mfclark · 05-27-2002, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BranJ17
For the record the most important offensive stat in Baseball is On Base plus Slugging, Batting Average means nothing.

OPS has several components that involve hitting the ball, so while it's not directly in the formula, batting average and hitting the ball are still key components of how good a player is.

Try telling batting average means nothing to someone like Ichiro.

mfclark · 05-27-2002, 01:17 PM

Oh, and Hunter is having a breakout season at the plate in Minnesota - with all of their injuries, he has been the person who has kept that team alive. For that reason alone, they wouldn't trade him except for a very lucrative offer.

Not to mention that if they get contracted, trading for prospects/major leaguers who need to develop isn't going to get them anywhere. They need to win now and unless you'd give up Berkman - and I doubt the Astros would - it's not gonna happen.

Plus, the Twins have a number of pitchers who can fill that end-rotation spot in a pinch, from Romero to Lohse, so I don't think anything involving Redding would get it done.

BranJ17 · 05-27-2002, 01:19 PM

Incidentally, Ward is currently leading Hidalgo in average, slugging, OBP and OPS. Hidalgo is clearly the superior outfielder.

When I said that I meant he is cleary a better defensive outfielder with more range, and a better arm. I do think Hidalgo will start to get more like his huge season. I see him start trying to hit the ball the other way, and once he does that on a regular basis watch out.

Minnesota might not even do a Hunter for Berkman trade.

No offense to you Kid Rock, but if the Twins were to pass on a Berkman-Hunter trade, that would be one of the worst moves in history. Berkman is already showing early comparisons to Mickey Mantle, I'll post the stats if you guys want to see just ask. Berkman isn't even close to his prime, he is going to be one of Baseball's best players in this era, and maybe ever. That is just my early opinion on the guy, still way too early, but This kid is for real.

bobrek · 05-27-2002, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Major
Regardless of how Redding has pitched his last 4-5 starts he would currently be no better than a 4th starter (behind Radke, Milton and Reed).

I guess due to the names/history of those guys, that's true. (similar to us) But their starters are pretty crappy:

Reed: 4.23 ERA
Milton: 4.93 ERA
Radke: 5.08 ERA

A Redding couldn't hurt, but I can see why they wouldn't be interested. Hunter is probably a crowd favorite, there, I assume due to his defense.

On an unrelated note, Look at these two dudes in their bullpen. WOW.

J.C. Romero: 29 innings, 0.31 ERA
Mike Jackson: 20 innings, 0.89 ERA

Combined, they have pitched 49 innings (or 5 1/2 games) and given up 3 runs. Oh I wish we had Mike Jackson back!!

Add to that Leroy Hawkins (27 innings, 1.9 ERA), Tony Fiore (20 innings, 2.13 ERA) and Eddie Guadardo (23 innnigs, 3.05 ERA) and that's one amazing bullpen.

Yep. I'm going on history with respect to their starters (although their W-L records are good despite the high ERAs).

Hunter also leads them in average, HRs and RBIs (of players that "qualify"). He and Andruw Jones are clearly the two best defensive CFs in the game.

mfclark · 05-27-2002, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BranJ17
Berkman is already showing early comparisons to Mickey Mantle, I'll post the stats if you guys want to see just ask. Berkman isn't even close to his prime, he is going to be one of Baseball's best players in this era, and maybe ever. That is just my early opinion on the guy, still way too early, but This kid is for real.

From Baseball-Reference.com, compairson stats for players to Berkman:

Similar Batters through Age 25
Wally Berger (962)
Ryan Klesko (941)
Todd Helton (938)
Geoff Jenkins (937)
Kal Daniels (921)
Bobby Abreu (919)
Bill Skowron (916)
J.D. Drew (913)
Chick Hafey (911) *
Dave Parker (903)
(* = HoFer)

Note that for Mantle, the people he draws comparisons to throughout his career are primarily Frank Robinson and Griffey Jr, with some late career comparisons to Barry Bonds.

BigM · 05-27-2002, 03:48 PM

when tony gwynn praises you as a hitter, you're a friggin stud. i wouldn't trade berkman for any offensive player in baseball and probably no one period since our starting pitching is already solid.

Puedlfor · 05-27-2002, 06:10 PM

A Few Things :

Quote:

I think it would take Ward + Redding to get it done

That would be a horrible deal for the Astros. Trading a great hitter, and a very good starter for a guy having a hot month? Not good for us at all. Perhaps we should consider letting Daryle Ward play a full season for us(Hunter had as many at-bats last year as Ward has had, ever). Either Hunter finally put it all together, or he's having a hot streak. Frankly, the probabilty that its the latter is enough that its not a good idea to trade away one starting outfielder and a good young pitcher.

Quote:

They are set at 1B, DH and LF so Ward doesn't noticeably upgrade them at those positions.

David Ortiz is injury-prone, and Doug Mientkewicz neither hits for power, nor draws walks, he's Mark Grace's younger, lighter hitting brother. Ward would instantly be an upgrade over either one of them.

A few more tidbits :

Jason Lane is NOT a first baseman. The Astros first tried him out there a little in the minors, but moved him back to the outfield, because thats his natural position.

Rick Reed is a finesse righty who gives up a ton of hits, he wouldn't be in front of Redding. Mays might, when he gets back, but certainly not Rick Reed.

Major · 05-27-2002, 06:31 PM

That would be a horrible deal for the Astros. Trading a great hitter, and a very good starter for a guy having a hot month?

I'm not so sure it's a hot month. Torii Hunter has improved his slugging and OPS every one of his 6 years in the majors. Yeah, he's a little out there this year, but even if comes back to his normal progression, it will be outstanding.

The key is not just his offense -- it's the fact that he does it playing gold glove defense in the most important defensive position for a huge outfield like Astros Field.

Jason Lane is NOT a first baseman. The Astros first tried him out there a little in the minors, but moved him back to the outfield, because thats his natural position.

I never knew this -- I assumed he was following our progression of converted 1Bs (Ward, Berkman). Do you know if he is a good defensive outfielder?

Puedlfor · 05-27-2002, 07:09 PM

Quote:

I'm not so sure it's a hot month. Torii Hunter has improved his slugging and OPS every one of his 6 years in the majors. Yeah, he's a little out there this year, but even if comes back to his normal progression, it will be outstanding.

The problem is that his performance is so far out there from what you would expect from the progression that it raises warning flags. He's always had the potential to hit for some nice power, its the On Base Percentage that really gets my Spidey Sense tingling, he's never demonstrated that he's had good plate discipline, and all of a sudden this year, he's got it down. Either he put it all together, which is a possibility - this would be the age for it, or its a hot streak, which I think is more likely. Now, if he regressed to the mean, he'd still be a damn good outfielder, but not worth Ward and Redding, in my opinion.

Quote:

The key is not just his offense -- it's the fact that he does it playing gold glove defense in the most important defensive position for a huge outfield like Astros Field.

And I would argue that the defensive slip from Tim Redding to Greg Miller(probable fifth starter) is greater than the cumulative gain putting Hunter in center would give us, because the pitcher is vastly more important than any other defensive position.

Quote:

I never knew this -- I assumed he was following our progression of converted 1Bs (Ward, Berkman). Do you know if he is a good defensive outfielder?

He seemed pretty decent when he was in Round Rock, and from what I gather, he's playing centerfield in New Orleans. He's a good athlete, I've never been struck by his arm strength. But I think he's got average-to above average range with good defensive instincts.

bobrek · 05-27-2002, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Puedlfor
A Few Things :

That would be a horrible deal for the Astros. Trading a great hitter, and a very good starter for a guy having a hot month? Not good for us at all. Perhaps we should consider letting Daryle Ward play a full season for us(Hunter had as many at-bats last year as Ward has had, ever). Either Hunter finally put it all together, or he's having a hot streak. Frankly, the probabilty that its the latter is enough that its not a good idea to trade away one starting outfielder and a good young pitcher.

David Ortiz is injury-prone, and Doug Mientkewicz neither hits for power, nor draws walks, he's Mark Grace's younger, lighter hitting brother. Ward would instantly be an upgrade over either one of them.

A few more tidbits :

Jason Lane is NOT a first baseman. The Astros first tried him out there a little in the minors, but moved him back to the outfield, because thats his natural position.

Rick Reed is a finesse righty who gives up a ton of hits, he wouldn't be in front of Redding. Mays might, when he gets back, but certainly not Rick Reed.

This year Mientkewicz has drawn 25 walks (20 Ks), Ward 6(34 Ks). Each has 2 HRs. Ward is hitting for a higher average so far this year, Doug is a gold glove first baseman. I don't see how much of an upgrade Ward would be.

kidrock8 · 05-28-2002, 12:14 AM

It never ceases to amaze me how much stock baseball fans put into statistics. Especially comparing two players on different teams in different leagues.

I don't care what Berkman's stats are compated to Hunter's. Fact remains, they faced totally different pitchers, in totally different situations, in totally different stadiums. Stats are apples and oranges, yet some people think that it's the determining factor between who is better and who is not.

I said the Twins would not trade Hunter for Berkman, because offensively, they are pretty similar, except for the fact that Berkman may have more pure power. Defensively, there is really no contest. With the fast turf at the Metrodome, 50% of balls hit in front of Berkman will end up being doubles, because of his lack of range. Hunter is also a much better basestealer, something that the Twins revolve around. Berkman would not be a good fit, because the Twins would have to slow down their running game to make sure they don't lose baserunners before Berkman hits a HR.

You need to look at the big picture from the Twins' perspective, rather than just looking at stats, and then deciding that the guy with the better stats is a better fit.