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The Rockets starting line-up plays better with D-Mo

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by 2016Champions, Oct 22, 2014.

  1. 2016Champions

    2016Champions Member

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    One look at the stats and the highlights and it's clear that Terrence Jones has more potential than Donatas Motiejunas. Jones had a PER of 18.9 while D-Mo's was a mere 11.3. Coach McHale seems convinced too seeing as the Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard line-up saw 619.2 minutes last season, while in contrast Motiejunas was given only 67.6 minutes with that starting line-up in Jones's steed. The 5-man unit with D-Mo actually performed better but we can't draw any conclusions from that given the small sample size, however, at the very least I think it validates the question: are the Rockets a better team with D-Mo in the starting line-up? Jones is probably the better player, but the better player and the better fit is not necessarily mutually exclusive.

    The starting line-up with Casspi at power-forward also performed better, but given Casspi's lack of size, obviously that was something the Rockets could only do if the match-ups allowed it. Is that the case with D-Mo as well? He's not the fastest guy in the world laterally, maybe those 67.6 minutes came against opposing PFs who aren't great at putting the ball on the floor.

    There is so much that goes on defensively, so many different aspects of defense to consider, that it's hard for even experts to put a value on a player's defensive impact. I've seen many fans in NBA discussion groups attempt to measure defensive impact with blocks and steals, but most of us are aware by now that method is a flawed science at best--Dennis Rodman is a testament to that. After discussions with some very smart people familiar with NBA analytics (via twitter and online forums), I have come to the conclusion that RAPM is the best single tool for measuring defensive impact, even ESPN have developed their own version (I'm not yet sure what the difference is) called RPM. According to RPM, Donatas is a plus defender. This metric does have a margin of error, and those like Donatas who didn't play a whole lot of minutes would have a much larger margin of error than a starter would. Obviously, we should take the fact Donatas has a positive dRPM with a grain of salt, but I don't think we should dismiss it completely. Donatas's lateral movement might look poor in contrast to the likes of Paul Millsap and Draymond Green, but it's not exactly Al Jefferson-bad. At the end of the day he's a legit 7 footer who tries, and for whatever it's worth, defense has been his focus of improvement this summer. Besides, Terrence Jones's dRPM is atrocious, ranking 80th among power forwards last season which doesn't surprise me one bit. Seemingly every power forward in the league put up career highs against Terrence Jones. At the very least, the defense won't get any worse if Donatas was to start over Terrence, and I have reason to believe the offense could get astronomically better. I'm going to explain why I think the Rockets offense could be better with Donatas, just bear with me for a minute.

    According to SynergySports, the two least efficient plays the Rockets ran the most last season were the Dwight Howard post-up and the James Harden isolation, and for reasons unknown these were also the two most frequently ran plays. In contrast, the pick-and-roll was the most efficient play, and it was used on less than 13% of Rockets possessions.

    Interestingly, the Mavericks used the pick-and-roll more than any other team in the league, and they arguably gave the Spurs the most trouble in the playoffs this year pushing them to 7 games. However, the fact the Mavericks have the best floor spacing power forward in the league might have something to do with how frequently they were able to run the pick-and-roll. Afterall, many defenses are putting more emphasis on packing the paint these last several years--something Zach Lowe believes has come as a result of Coach Thibodeau's influence.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_qmHhzfqdU
    An example of how teams pack the paint against the pick-and-roll

    I believe the Rockets will be able to operate the pick-and-roll with a higher level of frequency with a starting power-forward who stretches the floor, and I believe Donatas is a much better shooter than Jones is. Don't let the stats fool you, despite the poor 3pt percentage Donatas shot last season, defenses still respect him out there to a certain degree--a degree I am optimistic can rise given Donatas's good looking stroke. In contrast, Terrence gets blatantly left wide open out there.

    That about sums up my thoughts on why the Rockets starting line-up might perform better with D-Mo. I could be wrong, but considering all the information which points towards the possibility in question, I only hope McHale gives D-Mo a chance. Whether you like D-Mo or not, there's no denying that a 7 footer with his skill-set is extremely rare, and I would hate to see D-Mo leave the Rockets and blow-up somewhere else (especially the Mavs, that would kill me).

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tngVLBeK5yc
     
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  2. basketballholic

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    Defensively neither man is great shakes. But DMo does have the bulk to better challenge the big 4's you see in the Western Conference on a nightly basis to go along with being the better floor spreader.

    At this time I'm not sold that DMo is the solution at the 4 But I am convinced he is a better fit than Terrence because he's the better shooter and the bigger, bulkier body.
     
  3. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    i think its more mchale wants a somewhat consistent peformance out of the 4 spot for the imte being and thier is no way dmo is consistent enough to be a starter on a playoff/contender.
    + benching tjones makes his value plummet for all future trades and couple p** him off.
     
  4. basketballholic

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    In my opinion, this is a huge key right now. Gotta try to peak his trade value.
     
  5. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    Jones and D-mo are about even now. Jones looks to have regressed a bit or just hasn't gotten better. Donatas has improved his rebounding at least.
     
  6. jump shooter

    jump shooter Contributing Member

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    And your basing this off the current regular season games?
     
  7. King901

    King901 Member

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    Is any of this based off of current regular season games?
     
  8. Play07

    Play07 Member

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    I watched some of the game last night, jones is a talented player he can dribble get to rim etc.

    but its so many plays where he's literally on howards on back in the paint with him, the paint is just too crowded when he's in. Jones is good off dribble etc but the team doesn't need from the PF spot, when howard is in. Off the bench offense spark it would be great.

    it doesn't have to be anderson, love type player bombing away 3s, but just someone that likes to shoot a jumper and isn't hesitant about doing it when he catches the ball outside of the paint.

    Howard doesn't shoot jumpers, if you look around at todays NBA its a lot of teams where the center and PF shoots them. The team has improved on defense. But Morey is going to hurt this team if he doesn't find a guy who can shoot at PF.

    I still believe McHale would run more sets & be a better coach on offense if he had this PF guy.
     
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  9. basketballholic

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    On point. Rep'd.
     
  10. xtruroyaltyx

    xtruroyaltyx Member

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    I've been saying this since last season.

    Not only does Dmo space the floor better, but he does a lot of the dirty things Jones doesn't. He runs around setting screens for everyone...on ball, off the ball. He has more size for defense. Needs to improve his outside shooting, but he's more comfortable out there than Jones.

    I like TJones though. But I don't think he's just hands down the better player. I think a lot of Tjones success came because of being the starter and benefiting from playing with H&H. I think Dmo would see some of those same benefits.

    Dmo should have been starting for this team since last season. And when teams have smaller PF's in, Dmo can take them into the post and actually exploit that. We could impose our will on more teams and have more options offensively and defensively.

    Let Tjones be a spark off the bench.
     
  11. wfeebs

    wfeebs Member

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    I'd be fine with DMO starting too, but he STILL gets called too much for silly bump fouls. Gets into foul trouble too much. Could be nitpicking since he does other things better than Jones but those plays annoy me so much.
     
  12. rhino17

    rhino17 Member

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    I'm fine with either starting.
     
  13. rlmjdime

    rlmjdime Member

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    I like both. They each have their strength. But if playing one over the other will be a wash in terms of offensive/defensive potential, I'd like to see a little more of the floor spacing that DMo could provide. I was really hoping that TJ worked on his midrange shot this summer, but again, it is only preseason.
     
  14. jogo

    jogo Member

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    I can't ignore the difference in PER. A PER of 18.9 in a player's second year means a lot to me. Also TJones shot 54% last year. Can't argue with that. Both he and Motie have their warts and I think you have to decide with them which strengths and which weaknesses you want your starting PF to have. TJones has the athleticism to be a decent defender-coach him up and see what you have.
     
  15. Roxoff

    Roxoff Member

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    I'm ok with the fouls right now because I would much rather a bench player be taking them than a starter you want on the floor with 2 minutes left. That being said, if Dmo does start then yeah there might be a problem depending on if this continues.

    IMHO, I think the ship sailed on TJ. Should've traded him while the getting was good. Maybe we still can flip him, I don't know what kind of trade value he could command - but it's probably more value than he's giving the Rockets on the floor.
     
  16. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    So the numbers are clear? ;)

    BTW, I am more and more convinced that PER is a very inaccurate way to rate a player's overall value. It privileges high usage and does not give enough weight to defense.
     
  17. solo241

    solo241 Member

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    Regardless of who starts, we gotta give props to D-mo for working on his game this summer and showing visible improvement on both the defensive and offensive end during this preseason. I know it's just preseason but it's also comforting to know that he also played well on the Lithuanian national team during FIBA this summer.

    Overall, I'm pretty satisfied by his growth thus far. I hope it continues into the season.
     
  18. RudyT43

    RudyT43 Member

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    I really agree with this notion. One of the few rockets games I attended last year was against Memphis, a very large front. We were getting killed on the boards, and d mo came in and really changed the game. He is not as "sexy" as t jones but his frame is much better suited for an nba game compared to jones
     
  19. basketballholic

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    His frame is much more suited for the 4 compared to Terrence.

    As far as Terrence's frame........he would be best suited to take off a few pounds to get quicker and play small forward. I think if he did this that he could wreck defensively. And if the dude could actually shoot a basketball efficiently I think he would be a nut breaker at the 3 spot. It's just one of those "so close but yet so far" things with Terrence. Not big enough to play the 4. Just a bit undersized at the 4 with a skillset of a center basically with his ability to catch and finish in traffic and post up with the basketball. (Terrence does have a nice post up game for his size. He would kill undersized 3's with it.) But too small to defend either big spot. And not nearly skilled enough offensively to play the face-up game from the perimeter at the 3-spot or the 4-spot nor skilled enough to be a point forward for a team at the 3-4 spot.

    If Terrence could actually shoot a jumpshot with a basketball....he'd be looking at around $150 million in career earnings. But he can't.
     
  20. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    Was this some way of saying you think a team with Dwight Howard on it should be running a play that he's completely uninvolved with? Stats are cool and all, but you have to use your brain with it.

    You play low post offense because that's the offense that gets the best players involved in doing what they do best. It's what this team was assembled to do. Also, playing the low post does not mean Howard shoots it every time. It's far more complicated than that. Decoys, reposts, lobs, backdoor cuts, threes, cutters and sometimes Dwight makes the plays himself.

    Your argument seems to be more about playing the pick and roll than Dmo. Also, we swept the Spurs last year. We just need to get them in the playoffs. A place the Spurs have never beaten the Rockets.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockets–Spurs_rivalry

    3-0 in the Post Season. We own them so quit trying to be them.
     

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