Houston is a big market, even with the TV deal disaster, there should be plenty of slack in the payroll for the next 4+ years before our talented crop of players start getting big bucks through arbitration/free agency/early extension. This is the case even considering the possible dead weight of Feldman's contract, the possible extension of Fowler, and the likelihood that we sign several of our guys to extensions early to lock them up long-term (ie. Singleton and Altuve). I think there is a great opportunity to supplement our roster with a significant targeted free agent signing/trade or two (these deals will expire before our payroll gets intolerably expensive - I'm not necessarily advocating picking up the very top FA on a 10 year contract). IMO targeted significant FA signings or trade (above and beyond the talent of Fowler and Feldman) would be capitalizing on the big advantage we have over your typical extended bottom dwellers (small market teams). Obviously there is merit to holding off of free agency and trades to get a better look at more of our prospects, as there is the risk the veteran players signed/traded for do not pan out and block cheaper/younger/better talent (like we might be seeing with Feldman and Foltynewicz). My projected 2015 roster - a live Wild Card team (after Super Two deadline, projected numbers are based on a full season of play): LINEUP: CF: Fowler (S) .370 obp, 90 runs, .770 ops 2B: Altuve (R) .290 avg, 35 sb, 85 runs, .740 ops RF: Springer (R) 33 hr, 90 runs, 95 rbi, 18 sb, Gold Glove, .890 ops 1B: Singleton (L) 25 hr, 85 rbi, 85 runs, .850 ops DH: Cruz (R)* 27 hr, 80 rbi, .825 ops SS: Correa (R)* .330 obp, 35 2b, 10 hr, 15 sb, .740 ops LF: Santana (R) 18 hr, .760 ops C: Castro (L) 15 hr, .730 ops 3B: Dominguez (R) 20 hr, .700 ops BENCH: C: Stassi (R) 8 HR, .720 ops OF: Grossman (S) .345 OBP, .715 ops Middle IF: Fontana (L) .375 OBP. .700 ops Corner IF: Duffy (R) 6 HR, .700 ops ROTATION: 1. Keuchel (L) 2.90 era, 1.10 whip 2. McHugh 3.35 era, 1.15 whip 3. Cosart 3.90 era, 1.35 whip 4. Foltynewicz 4.30 era, 1.30 whip 5. Oberholtzer (L) 4.50 era, 1.35 whip BULLPEN: LR: Feldman 4.70 era, 1.30 whip MR: Albers 2.75 era, 1.15 whip MR: Downs (L) 3.40 era, 1.15 whip MR: Sipp (L) 3.40 era, 1.15 whip 7th: Crain 2.50 era, 1.10 whip 8th: Qualls 3.00 era, 1.20 whip CL: Romo* 40 SV, 2.30 era, .90 whip *KEY ASSUMPTIONS: I made the following big roster transactions: - I signed a top flight closer - I signed one of the top available bats I made these choices based on the projected 2015 UFAs. The names are somewhat arbitrary as I don't know who exactly will free up - you can easily replace Romo and Cruz with other impact pitcher and bat options available either via FA or at this year's trade deadline. I actually think a trade would make even more sense (since we would get a better deal salary wise and have plenty of trade bait - notice I included only one of Tucker/Santana on my roster). Further note that 3B would be a potentially great spot to upgrade instead of LF/DH, meaning we keep Carter/internal options (in this case plug Carter and his 30 HRs, .760 OPS in at #9 for Domingo). Alternatively, we could pursue an ace in free agency like Scherzer or Shields but this seems less likely. Continuing with the assumptions used... - Correa and Fontana make their way to AA and AAA respectively this summer and perform - One of Tucker or Santana is up and performing well enough to post the numbers I projected above. The other either is still struggling in AAA or maybe was traded as part of a package for the veteran bat/closer I'm advocating. - Springleton build on their numbers from the current year and Springer turns in a bonafide All-Star/borderline MVP campaign next year. Obviously this is a highly optimistic projection but not absurd given growth and their current figures. I also have Springer starting to display the run game he showed consistently in the minors, as he gets comfortable. - I have Keuchel and McHugh with only a slight drop off in their performance from 2014 thus far and filling in that #1 and #2 nicely. It's optimistic, but if one of them falters there is the potential that someone like Foltynewicz/Cosart/Appel or one of the AAA prospects rises up and bumps one or both of them down. NOTE: I'd be fine sticking with Carter at DH/Dominguez at 3B and Qualls as Closer, and I'm a huge advocate of developing from within and not making the same mistakes that led to three seasons in a row with the worst record in baseball and a depleted farm system. I think though that we can have our cake and eat it too in this situation. So what do you guys think about making a big splash in FA/Trade? Who is likely to be available that might make sense to go after? How far would the team posted above go?
Feldman a $10mm/year long reliever? Oberholtzer re-seizes a spot in the rotation? Both bold predictions.
Starters: Keuchel, Feldman, Cosart, McHugh, Folty Mid Relief: Albers, Zeid, Chapman, Tropeano, Downs Setup/Closer: Qualls, Crain Catcher: Jason Castro 1st Base: Jon Singleton 2nd Base: Jose Altuve Shortstop: Jon Villar 3rd Base: Pablo Sandoval Left Field: Domingo Santana Center Field: Dexter Fowler Right Field: George Springer Designated Hitter: Matt Dominguez Lineup: 1)Fowler 2)Altuve 3)Springer 4)Sandoval 5)Singleton 6)Santana 7)Castro 8)Dominguez 9)Villar Think Astros brass grow tired of substandard batting averages and shell out money for a high average kinda guy at a position of need. Pablo Sandoval, will provide a stabilizing force in the heart of the lineup. Think Carlos Lee playing 3rd base. .300avg with 20-24HR and 90+ RBI. But then again, I'm usually wrong about these things.
C Castro 1B Singleton 2B Altuve 3B Dominguez SS Correa LF Santana CF Fowler RF Springer DH Melky Cabrera Bench Corporan Villar Gonzalez Carter Grossman Rotation Keuchel Josh Beckett Feldman Folty Cosart Pen Qualls Crain Albers Sipp
Depending on the development of Santana and Tucker the rest of this year, there is a pretty good chance we will sign a LF that can also play a little 1B to a 1-2 year deal (someone like Morse). The only way you can go for a longer deal is if you've already decided you aren't resigning Fowler after next season. There is zero chance Albers will be back as we have cheaper options. I do think there is a good chance we sign a closer though unless the team decides to convert Folty. Next year is going to be a lot of fun. My way to early prediction: CF Fowler 2B Altuve RF Springer 1B Singleton DH Morse LF Santana 3B Dominguez C Castro SS Villar SP Keuchel SP Feldman SP Cosart SP McHugh SP Foltynewicz CL Street SU Qualls SU Fields MR Tropeano MR White LH Sipp LH Oberholtzer Trade: Also, instead of signing a LF free agent, they could trade their B prospects (Peacock, Carter, Buchanan) that are blocked for an arbitration guy like they did for Fowler.
I'm with you here. However I think they will go with possibly Preston Tucker over Matt Dominguez as the DH.
10x more likely than seeing Correa. DeShields is currently struggling in AA, so he needs to figure out AA first, before we start penciling him in on the Astros 2015 starting day roster.
I seriously doubt we are going to all of a sudden start making high profile moves, that was never the Cardinals strategy. Any FAs we sign will likely be stop gaps.
I really don't see Dominguez doing anything for the team. Often hear he is an above average defensive 3rd baseman, but I don't see it. And I don't ever seem him hitting for anything better than .240
Do you think he is the long term answer at 3rd base? He is a career 249 hitter with an OB% of around 300.
Just for the record, nobody takes batting average seriously anymore, it's all about dat OPS. He has good power and is very good defensively. He is an average to slightly above average player, which is nothing special, but we could also do a lot worse.
Long term? Depends on the rest of the team and what sort of production is needed from him. He is still 24. Offensively, this season, the Astros are getting essentially the same offensive production from Dominguez that the Rays are getting from Longoria. That being said, I'd trade Dominguez for Longoria in a heartbeat.
Basically how I feel. I don't especially feel Dominguez is anything special, but I am aware that players improve at different rates... for example, all Dominguez has to do is increase his walk rate and he is a starting third baseman in baseball for the next decade. He has a bit of a Joe Crede feel to his game. I do expect Ruiz, Correa or someone else to eventually push him out.
Not sure how to take this seriously when you advocate Dominguez and DH and Sandoval at 3B. You could have easily swapped them. Also, i'm confused by the majority of people projecting Folty in the rotation. By all reports, his secondary stuff hasn't progressed, and it seems like he's projecting more and more like Wagner/Lidge...SP to great RP (obviously those comps are best best case) in the majors. Given the talent in the minors, I think I'd rather see him as a stud RP than a #4/#5 SP
