http://www.inpredictable.com/2014/03/measuring-clutch-play-in-nba.html [rquoter] In this post I will lay out an approach for measuring clutch play in the NBA, using my win probability model as the underlying framework. Clutch play, much like the hot hand or momentum, is something that many casual fans and color commentators assume is real, but the typical "stat geek" (for lack of a better term) may regard with skepticism or outright derision. Peter Keating addressed the topic of clutch play in a recent article for ESPN Insider. The piece was also included in ESPN The Magazine's March "Analytics Issue", which I still can't believe is an actual thing. Keating attempts to bridge the gap between the traditionalist view of clutch play and the stathead view, with sound advice for both sides. For the traditionalists, Keating recommends: Go right ahead and appreciate game-changing plays. But define your terms so that clutch doesn't mean one thing on Monday and another on Thursday just so you can defend your favorite player. Likewise, measure clutch performance with smart tools like Win Probability Added, but don't expect to predict it. For the stat geeks among us: Respect clutch achievement, even if it's not predictable. Don't be killjoys. With that in mind, I come here not to bury clutch play, but to measure it. ... [/rquoter] You can read the article for more on the methodology. I just thought it was worth pointing out, because James Harden is at the top of the list. Code: [B]Rank Player WPA eWPA clWPA gbWPA [/B] 1 James Harden 7.20 3 4.53 8 3.09 0.42 77 2 LeBron James 8.43 2 6.92 2 2.80 1.30 3 3 Anthony Davis 5.75 7 4.25 12 2.38 0.89 19 4 Damian Lillard 5.41 10 4.40 9 2.22 1.20 4 5 Blake Griffin 6.33 4 4.81 7 1.95 0.43 73 6 Stephen Curry 5.00 11 4.29 10 1.87 1.16 6 7 Chris Bosh 5.74 8 4.26 11 1.81 0.33 109 8 Wesley Matthews 5.98 6 5.15 6 1.72 0.88 20 9 Kevin Durant 9.30 1 9.02 1 1.66 1.38 1 10 Thaddeus Young 3.36 23 2.22 55 1.65 0.51 55
Great find, durvasa! You highlight something many of us have already noticed, but that some here may find hard to believe... that James Harden is a clutch player.
Good find! I remember when the common criticism towards Harden was he would be ineffective in crunch time or playoffs because he is too reliant on drawing fouls. His injuries set him back early on, but he has been having an amazing 2nd half of the season so far.
Just one reason why we can't go to him in the final minutes of a game. And Harden has been extra clutch lately.
The methodology is kinda goofy since they penalize Durant and lebron for being amazingly good throughout the game.
Is there any measurement for clutch defensive plays? BTW, Howard and Love are the top 2 unclutch FT shooters. Imagine they are the starting front court for the same team...
Right now I imagine Aldridge is realizing the ceiling of his mediocre team and considering the idea once again of joining us. With the vast ocean we create in that middle area by having a dominant paint and outside presence, he would be a perfect fit here. I like Love too but think that LA is the more realistic scenario at this point.
Well, they didn't call Robert Horry "Big Shot Bob" because he was consistently awesome throughout the games. :grin: It really just comes down to your definition of what clutch is. In addition, this formula favors scorers because it only takes into account rebounding in terms of non-scoring stats. Otherwise, CP3 should be near or at the top of the list. But it does take into account efficiency. And that's pretty important. A better way to sum up the guy's analysis is that "Harden is the best at taking over the game scoring wise down the stretch."
I was as excited as anybody watching the Rockets comeback win against Blazers but "don't be killjoys"? You've got to fight ignorance.
The beard is in! <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/JLnYwHl73uA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/qge70eEDP6o" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/v0R-nvfw5OY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Once again, I retract my criticism of McHale, Harden-iso isn't so bad after-all and he's still getting better.
