Looking Forward to the Last 32 Games

Where They Stand

The Rockets have 33 wins and 17 losses and are 2nd in the Southwest Division while holding 5th seed in the Western Conference. The All-Star game and the trade deadline is less than 2 weeks away; February 16th and 20th respectively. The meter is running if the Rockets want to shore up their rotation with their typical trade deadline move. Make no doubt, the Rockets have depth issues that need to be addressed if they are going to stand a legit chance of beating OKC in a 7 game series and getting out of the West.

Daryl Morey said earlier in the season that he expected this team to have some issues early but also expected them to play their best ball during the 2nd half of the season. He was a profit about the early season pit falls, lets hope he is a profit about them playing their best ball in the 2nd half of the season.

Power Forward Question Answered

Who will be the teams Power Forward? This is a question we have been trying to answer ever since the Rockets amnestied Luis Scola in the summer of 2012. Patrick Patterson got the 1st chance to earn the starting spot. Pat had a great mid range shot and he always knew where he was supposed to be on defense but was so ineffective that opposing Power Forwards shot over the top of him like he was a 6’ point guard. Pat would disappear for long stretches of games to the point that you would completely forget he was on the floor except for when it was time to cuss him like some junk yard dog because he refused to get a defensive rebound or even box his man out. Daryl Morey mercifully traded him during the last trade deadline.

Donatas Motiejunas and Greg Smith were both given opportunities at the spot post Pat Patterson. At first DMo looked as if he might put a stranglehold on the position but eventually proved too inconsistent. For every good game DMo had he seemed to have 2 bad games. Greg Smith rebounded well and was a good offensive option but was exposed somewhat in the OKC play-off series. Both DMo and Greg have found it next to impossible to stay out of foul trouble.

The Twin Towers experiment with Dwight as the Power Forward turned out to be a nightmare of an experiment. Count me as one of those that were certain it would be a huge success. I was wrong. Many were certain that it would never be a success and we could argue all day about why it failed, but at the end of the day if failed and failed hard.

On November 13, 2013 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, the Houston Rockets found its Power Forward.

Terrence Jones

He is listed at 6’9”, 252 lbs. with similar size and athleticism as Karl Malone. He has just turned 22 years old and since he has been inserted into the starting line-up he has gotten better and better.

Terrence has started 40 games this season and in his first 20 games he averaged:
11 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.45 APG, 1.35 BPG, .65 SPG, .472 FG%

In his last 20 games he has averaged:
15.3 PPG, 9.05 RPG, 1.30 APG, 1.70 BPG, .7 SPG, .546 FG%

Terrence isn’t just playing great against the scrubs of the world but he is also putting up some big numbers against several of the better known Power Forwards in the league:

Code:

vs. Tim Duncan:    21 PPG,  9 RPG, 0 APG, 1 BPG, .750 FG%
vs. Ersan Ilyasova:36 PPG, 11 RPG, 1 APG, 2 BPG, .700 FG%
vs. Serge Ibalka:  16 PPG, 13 RPG, 3 APG, 1 BPG, .500 FG%
vs. Anthony Davis: 25 PPG,  8 RPG, 1 APG, 6 BPG, .588 FG%
vs. Nene Hillario: 19 PPG, 17 RPG, 1 APG, 3 BPG, .500 FG%
vs. Dirk Nowitzki: 16 PPG,  5 RPG, 1 APG, 0 BPG, .700 FG%
vs. Zach Randolph: 20 PPG,  5 RPG, 2 APG, 2 BPG, .714 FG%
vs. Tim Duncan:    21 PPG, 14 RPG, 1 APG, 3 BPG, .450 FG%
vs. David Lee:     16 PPG, 10 RPG, 1 APG, 3 BPG, .583 FG%
vs. Kevin Love:    18 PPG, 10 RPG, 3 APG, 2 BPG, .700 FG%
vs. Anthony Davis: 17 PPG,  8 RPG, 2 APG, 3 BPG, .750 FG%

Certainly Terrence did not win the personal battle against all of those players (Dirk & Zebo) but for a player as young as Terrence that has only started 40 games, he handled himself exceptional well and he has won most of the individual battles.

The best young Power Forwards in the game are: Anthony Davis, Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin. If any of those guys became available in a trade for Terrence Jones you would do it in a second, but excluding those players who could the Rockets replace Terrence with and get the same type of production from? Zebo, Dirk and Duncan are all 1st option All-Star type of players as well but they are also in the twilight of their careers. Paul Milsap is the name that typically gets tossed around on this BBS but what are you going to get from Milsap that you haven’t been getting from Terrence Jones for the last couple of months? Milsap makes about 8 million a season more than Terrence. Paul Milsap has reached his ceiling but do you think a 22 year old with only 40 starts has reached his?

Daryl Morey hit a grand slam with Chandler Parsons and it looks like he has hit a home run with Terence Jones. A very young athletic Power Forward with tons of un tapped upside that is making major contributions to the team right now.

What Happens At The Trade Deadline?”

In my opinion, nothing. I think the team the Rockets have right now is the team they will have on February 21st. There just are not a whole lot of “available” deals that make sense for the Rockets.

Is Rajon Rondo available? I know there are some that claim he is available but I just have a hard time buying it. And if he is available then what would he cost? Would you be willing to toss in Jones or Parsons or both? How about Asik and Jones or Asik and Parsons? if you lose either Parsons or Jones in a trade IMO you better be sure what you are getting back is going to put you over the top since losing either of those guys would put a great big giant hole in your rotation that you will almost certainly not be able to fill any time soon. Rondo represents an upgrade but I don’t think he puts us over the top.

I think Eric Gordon would be an absolutely perfect match for the Rockets coming off of bench. But while he makes since as an addition on the floor, what would you be willing to give up to get him that the Pelicans would be interested in? Salary cap wise he makes zero since he makes over 14 million a season and a 15 million dollar player exception in the summer of 2015. If you put Gordon on your roster you better have a good feeling that he puts you over the top. I would thank any deal for Gordon would start with Asik but that is not enough for Gordon salary wise. But if the Rockets think that TJones is the future at PF, then possibly a good defensive, high scoring wing player like Gordon to bring off of the bench would be just what they think could push them over the top. Would Asik, cap filler and a 1st round pick be enough to get Eric Gordon? Asik and Davis in the front court would be a hell of a duo for a long long time. But I don’t think it happens.

Kyle Korver is an elite 3 point shooter that would add a lot to the Rockets bench. Bringing a guy off of the bench that hits almost 50% of his 3pt shots would be a great weapon when they are in the 2nd half of games against teams like OKC that just stop defending the 3pt line and pack the paint. But like Gordon, about 6 million a year, his contract is not exactly cap friendly for the Rockets. Plus that extends past the 2015 summer that Daryl Morey has appears to have circled on his calendar.

Kevin McHale reportedly requested Mike Dunleavy. The Bulls might be motivated to move Dunleavy for salary tax reasons that you can read about here:
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=250552
So what would the Rockets be willing to trade the Bulls that has some value and would create enough cap flex to keep them out of Luxury Tax Hell? Dunleavy makes about 3.2 million this season so an offer of Donatas Motiejunas and Ronnie Brewer (while not sexy) would off the Bulls about 1 million in salary cap relief and keep them out of Luxury Tax Hell. I’m guessing the Bulls can do better than DMo and Brewer in a deal but you never know. If the Rockets could get Dunleavy he would add some much needed 3pt shooting off of the bench, particularly when teams are trying to pack the paint on the Rockets (which they will do in the play-offs).

Can The Rockets Have Success In The Play-Offs?

Adding a wing defender / 3pt shooter off of the bench would make the Rockets a legit threat to come out of the West in my opinion. I think they will pass San Antonio and win the Southwest Division. I think age has already caught up with San Antonio and I think Portland is going to fall back in the conference as the Rockets and Clippers get healthy and their starters play the rest of the season together. The 3 best teams in the league are Miami, Indiana and OKC and the Clippers and Rockets bring up the next tier of teams. In a play-off series there are 3 teams in the West that scare me: OKC, LAC and Memphis (they are just a bad match up). I think one of the Clippers or the Rockets will finish with the 2nd seed in the West. If the Rockets finish with the 2nd seed then I think they will be in the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder.

 

The Rockets are 2 and 2 against Memphis but in all 4 games they played Memphis brand of basketball. With the addition of Courtney Lee, I think Memphis can make some noise once they are in the play-offs. I would prefer that Memphis sneaks into the play-offs in the 8th seed and are illuminated by OKC. It would be the Rockets luck that Memphis would be 7 and the Rockets would be 2. Bad match up for the Rockets.

 

what would it take to get Melo? Knicks would probably ask for Asik, Lin and TJones plus draft pics or more.

Bev
Harden
Parsons
Melo
Howard

no bench.

 

I absolutely agree with you. Plus I don't think NYK would trade him this year. I was just responding to a previous post.

 

I'm not saying that Milsap wouldn't be an upgrade, but my question is how much of an upgrade? Is it enough of an upgrade to warrant and extra 8 million in salary to that position?

The biggest thing to me however, is the improvement we are seeing in TJ on a week be week basis. He team defense is much improved from where it was when he was first inserted into the staring rotation back in November.

Another aspect of TJones game that is starting to come out is his aggressiveness and his assertiveness. We are starting to see TJones actually call for the ball and direct the team in some situations when he has the ball in his hands.

During the Phoenix game there was a time early in the game where TJones had the ball and waved D12 out of the post so he could take his man 1 on 1 off of the dribble and scored a basket going to the hoop. Later in that same game TJones was driving to the basket and motioned to D12 again, and then stopped just inside the free throw line and tossed a beautiful lob pass to D12.

With the way TJones is improving and the fact that he is only 22 with only 40 starts, I think we are only seeing the tip of the ice burg with TJones. I think by play-off time he will be even better. He is great at running the court and putting the ball on the court and beating his man off of the dribble. He is terrific at moving with out the basketball and starting to show real signs of creating for his teammates. While I don't see a huge change in his stats I do think his defense just gets better and better which is what we need come play-off time.

 

Maybe your right, Daryl alluded to as much during his question and answer session with some of the season ticket holders.