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[ClutchFans] Jeremy Lin's Big Test
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GBRocket is offline Old 09-25-2013, 12:18 PM   #1
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http://rockets.clutchfans.net/4841/jeremy-lin-big-test/
 
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Andre0087 is offline Old 09-25-2013, 12:21 PM   #2
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Nice article...but the only way we get a shot at a championship will be for Howard to return to pre Laker form, Harden to continue to improve especially defensively, and Lin has to make that leap forward along with one of the PF's. It's a long shot, but some of those will most likely happen.
 
J-Wolf is offline Old 09-25-2013, 12:58 PM   #3
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Lin's style just doesn't mesh well with Harden. He's better off coming off bench as the 6th man in current Rockets or be traded and featured in other systems. He needs a big man who can finish strong and a slew of spot up shooters.
 
HMMMHMM is offline Old 09-25-2013, 12:58 PM   #4
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Lin is the clear starter, but if he returns to his past struggles from the three-point line, commits too many turnovers or fails to gel with Dwight, it could lead to him being replaced in the starting lineup in favor of Patrick Beverley, who played well last year as Lin’s backup. Though Beverley’s minutes constitute a smaller sample size (710 minutes), the Rockets as a team posted a 98.8 Defensive Rating when he was on the floor (compared to 104.0 with Lin), a ranking that would be good enough to be third best defense in the league. To add to that, there was almost no dip offensively (106.4 Offensive Rating with Lin on the floor, 106.1 with Beverley).
So why is Lin the clear starter, in the first pace, then?

Just because Beverley hasn't played a ton of minutes yet? Or is it perhaps simply because Lin is paid over 10x as much as Beverley?
 
Clutch is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:08 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by HMMMHMM View Post
So why is Lin the clear starter, in the first pace, then?

Just because Beverley hasn't played a ton of minutes yet? Or is it perhaps simply because Lin is paid over 10x as much as Beverley?
I think he's saying he comes in as the clear starter, but those numbers are pretty damning.

Glad he wrote this. I think it's an underplayed story right now... the pressure is on Lin not just to perform, but to perform in this complementary role starting with Game 1 this year. If he doesn't, I think he could very well lose the starting gig. No reason to think that Lin will struggle as badly as he did to start last year though and I think Beverley has to prove last year was no fluke.

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tycoonchip is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:12 PM   #6
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I agree to a point but I just don't see the need for our pg to do so much. All these people who think Lin will be a top 10 pg are nuts. If our pg can play great D and hit the open shots off the ball and bring the ball up court, we'll be fine. Dwight's,Harden's, and Parson's game are definitely the concern. This team will go as far as those three will take us.

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pwnyxpress is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:16 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by J-Wolf View Post
Lin's style just doesn't mesh well with Harden. He's better off coming off bench as the 6th man in current Rockets or be traded and featured in other systems. He needs a big man who can finish strong and a slew of spot up shooters.
Wait...didn't you just describe the current Rockets roster? lol
 
jayland is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:24 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by HMMMHMM View Post
So why is Lin the clear starter, in the first pace, then?
So hopefully his trade value won't plummet and it is still possible to shed his toxic contract before the trade deadline if needed?
 
I'm Tom Brady is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:24 PM   #9
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Mmmmmmm, fudge...
 
nono is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:26 PM   #10
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Dwight presence will help Lin a lot. It goes without saying though that this is a make or break year for him. I'm sure he'll be up to the task.
 
pwnyxpress is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:30 PM   #11
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Quality read. One of the better articles I've read about Lin lately.
 
J-Wolf is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:31 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by pwnyxpress View Post
Wait...didn't you just describe the current Rockets roster? lol
Harden does not want to be Lin's spot up shooter, and Lin is not a good enough spot up shooter for Harden. That's the problem.
 
HMMMHMM is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:34 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Clutch View Post
I think he's saying he comes in as the clear starter, but those numbers are pretty damning.

Glad he wrote this. I think it's an underplayed story right now... the pressure is on Lin not just to perform, but to perform in this complementary role starting with Game 1 this year. If he doesn't, I think he could very well lose the starting gig. No reason to think that Lin will struggle as badly as he did to start last year though and I think Beverley has to prove last year was no fluke.
Oh, I see.

I would agree that Lin is coming in as the clear starter. Fair (to Beverley) or not, the Rockets invested $25M in Lin to be their starting PG, so they obviously would like to see him establish himself as such and are likely to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

Still, as you said, if Beverley indeed proves that last year was no fluke, the pressure very much will be on Lin to perform, and though as much seemed obvious to me, I can see why you would say that it's an underplayed story.

And yes, quality read, of course.
 
Pak14life is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:44 PM   #14
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Decent article, just wish it mentioned that Lin's first six weeks were horrific and if you take those out by saying they were due to his knee surgery he was at worst average the rest of the year. And if he was average last year shouldn't he be better this year given that he's a young player?
 
CXbby is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:46 PM   #15
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Really enjoyed the analysis, even if I have a few issues with some of the conclusions.

1. You mentioned that fans who were underwhelmed by Lin's numbers did not factor his decrease in usage. But then concluded that PG was our second biggest positional disadvantage by pointing to a 2.1 deficit in PER, a 2 point deficit in PPG, and 1 less assist. All three stats being a direct function of usage%.

2. Will below average be good enough? If history is any indication, below average at the PG position is most definitely good enough to win a championship, especially on a team built around an elite wing and center duo. Moreover, I take issue with your characterization of the team "with only two All-Stars". Not many teams have multiple allstars to begin with, and even fewer have a tandem as potent as the Rockets. Miami's Lebron/Wade, OKC's Durant/Westbrook, LAC's Paul/Griffin and the list stops there. The Rockets have a top 4 duo, and I would argue top 2 with a fully healthy Dwight. As far as elite talent, the Rockets are not at a deficit. This gives them a handicap as far as the talent of the rest of the team.

3. While conventional wisdom says that you want a shooter/defender at PG next to your elite wing/center duo, a study that came out of Daryl Morey's SSAC12 suggests that an attacking PG with "high scoring, high assists, high steals, high turnover" forms a trio that provides even higher synergy.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com...Conference.pdf

The question the Rockets need to find an answer to in the first 20 games of the season is, is there any validity to that claim? Which style of play from your PG generates more wins next to our allstar duo? Is it the conventional spot up shooter ala Derek Fisher? Because we have IMO a rich man's version in Patrick Beverley. Or is it as the paper suggests, a more attacking mold that Jeremy would provide?
 
Ultimate6thMan is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:47 PM   #16
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I like Beverly a lot.....as a BACK UP. He has done nothing to me that warrants a starting job on any NBA team, let alone the Rockets contending team. He would probably foul out of most games as a starter, or greatly reduce is on ball pressure, which is his staple weapon.

I expect JLin to shut up a lot of complainers this year, but they will probably just say that he improved so much that he is okay now. In actuality, like the articles says, he had a great year last year for basically a rookie PG playing with a new superstar with no training camp together.

The article (although a good one for the most part) failed to mention in reference to him not being able to create his own offense, that Morey has stated that Jlin has one of the quickest first steps in the league, and he can consistently beat his mean off the dribble. Also, the article failed to consider that many of those turnovers on pick and rolls was from our big men not being able to catch passes like he was passing to Chandler in NY; which will change with the addition of Howard.

As I have said before, I expect JLin to average 15-17pts, 7-8 assists, 3-4 rbds, and 2-3 steals a game this season. That will be an amazing feat on this team and will help push us deep into the playoffs, if not the Finals and Championship, this year!
 
JBar is offline Old 09-25-2013, 01:51 PM   #17
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One thing being left out of this Lin vs. Beverly debate is that whoever is the backup point guard is going to get a lot more minutes than the backup point guards averaged last season. It may well look a lot more like a three-guard rotation this year. Since Harden distributes so well for a 2-guard (and will be probably see his minutes reduced to keep him fresh), since Lin is big enough to handle many 2 guards, and since Delfino is no longer with the team, the third guard may get near starter minutes. Garcia will of course get some minutes at the 2 off the bench depending on matchups, but I bet he'll mostly be used as a backup 3. Also, I expect to see Harden at the 3 more (like they played against OKC in the finals).

I think Lin fans are exaggerating how big of a deal it would be for Lin come off the bench (which I'd bet against happening if forced to call it one way or another). If Lin played, say, 26 minutes instead of 32 and excelled in that role, it would hardly constitute a derailment of his career.
 
pwnyxpress is offline Old 09-25-2013, 02:02 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Wolf View Post
Harden does not want to be Lin's spot up shooter, and Lin is not a good enough spot up shooter for Harden. That's the problem.
You said Lin needs a big man who can finish at the rim. Now he has Howard, arguably the best in the league at doing that, esp. of P&Rs which Lin is great at.

And obviously Harden won't be relegated to just being a spot up shooter, but are we forgetting that the team consists of more than just the two of them? Uhh, last time I checked, we had a ton of spot up shooters on our roster. As of now, people who can really make it rain from beyond the arc on our team: Parsons, Brooks, and Garcia (Canaan too if he played); Reggie Williams and Casspi also showed great range and the ability to knock it down in their earlier seasons, though that has dropped in recent yrs. Morey must have seen something in them to bring them back, and I thought in some recent interview some Rockets player was saying one of those two (Williams?) was doing great from 3 pt land.

Heck, even our bigs can knock down some 3's (DMo and TJones). So seeing as how the nba isn't a 2 v 2 league, I'm not sure your point is that valid as-is.
 
jbasket is online now Old 09-25-2013, 02:08 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by HMMMHMM View Post
So why is Lin the clear starter, in the first pace, then?

Just because Beverley hasn't played a ton of minutes yet? Or is it perhaps simply because Lin is paid over 10x as much as Beverley?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clutch View Post
I think he's saying he comes in as the clear starter, but those numbers are pretty damning.

Glad he wrote this. I think it's an underplayed story right now... the pressure is on Lin not just to perform, but to perform in this complementary role starting with Game 1 this year. If he doesn't, I think he could very well lose the starting gig. No reason to think that Lin will struggle as badly as he did to start last year though and I think Beverley has to prove last year was no fluke.
I think both of yall are forgetting the different levels of competition: with Jeremy Lin playing against the starters in a talented position in the league, and Patrick Beverley (playoffs aside) did not as heavily. If Lin shoots like he did after the all-star break, I find it hard to believe he will be benched.

In addition, a big question is if Beverley's style of play can be consistent with increased minutes as a starter. Many of his qualities that we as fans love would be too exhausting with more minutes. As a defensive stopper myself, the full court pick-up Beverley provides that the Rockets faithful love to see and is beneficial to the Rocket's defence would be extremely difficult with more minutes. If he can still do it, hats off to him, but normally, something has got to give then.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultimate6thMan View Post
As I have said before, I expect JLin to average 15-17pts, 7-8 assists, 3-4 rbds, and 2-3 steals a game this season. That will be an amazing feat on this team and will help push us deep into the playoffs, if not the Finals and Championship, this year!
If JLin gets those stats, either Harden has significantly dropped off or the Rockets are winning a championship. Those are some very high end numbers...

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JustAGuy is offline Old 09-25-2013, 02:09 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by CXbby View Post
...

3. While conventional wisdom says that you want a shooter/defender at PG next to your elite wing/center duo, a study that came out of Daryl Morey's SSAC12 suggests that an attacking PG with "high scoring, high assists, high steals, high turnover" forms a trio that provides even higher synergy.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com...Conference.pdf

The question the Rockets need to find an answer to in the first 20 games of the season is, is there any validity to that claim? Which style of play from your PG generates more wins next to our allstar duo? Is it the conventional spot up shooter ala Derek Fisher? Because we have IMO a rich man's version in Patrick Beverley. Or is it as the paper suggests, a more attacking mold that Jeremy would provide?
On the other hand, if the coaching defines his roll to be something closer to Beverley's style of play, Beverley is much more likely to "win" the comparison. I think it is not just the player type, but also the player usage as defined by coaching that would matter. [This is an observation, not a value judgement on coaching decisions.]
 

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