Chandler Parsons only ranks as the 10th best SF

Tony Stark · Aug 6, 2013

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9540148/nba-projecting-top-10-small-forwards-warp-2013-14

I personally thing george and parsons should be 6 and 7, and you can forget putting AK on there

Durant
1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 18.3
Durant has to stop getting better, right? Last season, he soared to 22.4 WARP, and his projection for this season is merely a statistical model seeing some regression to the mean. Seasons in which a player combines a usage rate of at least 30 percent with a true shooting percentage of .600 or better are historically rare. Durant has made it a matter of routine, and ATH is forecasting another such a season. He also improved his assist rate for the second straight season, a gain ATH sees Durant mostly retaining.

Pierce
2. Paul Pierce, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.6
Pierce is entering a contract year, and at 36 years old, he may not have many more of those. He's aged remarkably well, though you can see in the projections of Durant and Pierce the gap in value between a borderline All-Star and an MVP candidate. Pierce has hit double digits in WARP in each of the past three seasons, but it remains to be seen how he'll fit into the new hierarchy in Brooklyn. ATH sees Pierce retaining his efficiency and more, with an uptick in true shooting percentage from .559 to .592. However, the system sees a 4.4 percent drop in usage rate as he'll have less to do in the stacked Nets lineup.

Leonard
3. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.0
People are still irritated at ATH's projection for Tony Parker, but Spurs fans shouldn't worry because Leonard is there to pick up the slack. One of the league's rising stars, the system sees Leonard reaching All-Star level production in 2013-14 with a winning percentage creeping over the .600 mark. Most of that is efficiency and defense, with a forecasted 3-point success rate of 40.5 percent. His usage rate is projected to remain mostly stagnant, but if he edges it close to the league average, look out.

Iguodala
4. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.9
Iguodala's efficiency dropped last season, which was a surprise considering his supposed fit in George Karl's system. His turnover rate jumped by more than 3 percent, and his 3-point shooting slipped from .394 to .317. Also, perhaps because he played more 2 than 3, his defensive rating fell off a little as well. ATH sees Iguodala bouncing back this season as a Warrior, though not quite to the level of his best seasons in Philadelphia. He turns 30 in January and another a drop in rebounding and his ability to draw fouls would be evidence that Iggy is losing a shade of his elite athleticism.

Batum
5. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
Batum's steady improvement hit a plateau in his fifth NBA season, and his 2.2 percent loss in usage rate suggests that playing alongside Damian Lillard may have actually impacted his game in a negative fashion. For Portland to get back into the playoff hunt this season, Batum needs to be a stronger No. 3 to the core duo of Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Right now, Batum is perimeter-oriented, but his 3-point success rate was just around league average last season. He's been around 40 percent a couple of times, and if he can get back to that, then perhaps he can make more plays off the dribble and get to the foul line more often.

Granger
6. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.4
We don't know yet if Granger's knee trouble is chronic, and ATH sees him recovering much of his pre-injury value. I'm skeptical. Even without the injuries, Granger is getting on in years as he will hit 31 near the end of the season. He's also likely to be Indiana's fourth option now with Paul George's emergence. If he can embrace that role with heretofore unseen efficiency, then he can help keep the Pacers in the title hunt.

George
7. Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.8
Speaking of George, his playoff breakout isn't represented here, and subjectively, I do see that performance as a coming-of-age rather than a fluke. So while I can't get ATH to replicate the effect, I think George will soar near the top of these rankings and will supplant Granger in the former Indiana offensive hierarchy.

Kirilenko
8. Andrei Kirilenko, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
Between Pierce and Kirilenko, the Nets have the best combination at small forward of any team in the league, and the duo should be a good fit to play together in different lineup configurations. Like Pierce, Kirilenko is projected to give up some of his possessions, but his true shooting percentage is forecast to surpass .600 for the first time in five years. He turns 33 this season, but all of his athletic indicators remain strong.

Korver
9. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
The last three ranked players on the small forward list represent what the position has become for so many teams: A floor-spacing position filled by guys who shoot a high percentage from the corner. Korver is the prototype, and while he's certainly not an elite individual defender, he doesn't kill you in the team concept. The Hawks didn't get much out of Korver's fine passing skills last season, but with a new roster, maybe that facet of his game will bounce back.

Parsons
10. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
If there was a way to subjectively tweak WARP to give Parsons extra credit for his role in recruiting Dwight Howard to Houston, he'd rank higher. As it is, I think ATH is underrating Parsons, both for what he's done and what he should be able to do playing off Howard and James Harden. The system sees a little regression in his 3-point percentage and, thus, his true shooting percentage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those figures continue on an upwards arc.

Next five:
t-10. Matt Barnes/Jared Dudley
11. Carlos Delfino
12. Gordon Hayward
13. Luol Deng
14. Rudy Gay

I paired Barnes and Dudley because they play the same position for the same team and have the same projected WARP. Needless to say, the Clippers are in good shape at the 3, with two high-efficiency players who represent two of the better bargains in the league.

The comer in this group is Hayward, who should get more of a featured role in what promises to be a very young Jazz lineup. He was one of the standouts in the Team USA summer workouts in Las Vegas and may be ready for his close-up, so to speak. If he can sharpen his 3-point stroke to the 40-percent range, then his ability to make plays inside the arc will be enhanced. With rookie Trey Burke taking over at point guard, Hayward may also take on more of a playmaking role.

ATH sees Deng falling hard in a contract year, and he does have a lot of mileage on his body for a player who doesn't turn 29 until near the end of the season. That said, Derrick Rose's absence affected Deng's offensive efficiency in a big way, and the return of the star point guard may help Deng sidestep any loss in production. As for Gay, ATH and WARP aren't fond of high-volume, low-efficiency types, and a little shot selection would go a long way toward getting Gay into the top 10.

Also notable: Gerald Wallace, Danilo Gallinari, Jeff Green, Harrison Barnes.

Going from Wallace to a Pierce-Kirilenko combo at the 3 is about as strong of a positional upgrade a team can make during an offseason. Gallinari's return from a knee injury is uncertain and undermines his projection. With a healthy forecast, he'd rank somewhere around fifth. Green looked great toward the end of last season, but he'll have to prove himself over a full campaign to improve his baseline.

Barnes' replacement-level forecast is an improvement on a rookie year that showed promise, but still doesn't reflect how well he played in the postseason. Those postseason breakouts can be misleading, though, and Barnes now has to adjust to coming off the bench.
Click to expand...

Fullcourt · Aug 6, 2013

Paul George should be 3 IMO, Korver can GTFO.

BleedsRocketRed · Aug 6, 2013

Korver? WTF

REEKO_HTOWN · Aug 6, 2013

I only have beef with the Korver and Pierce.

Tony Stark · Aug 6, 2013

i think deng got snubbed too

Pull_Up_3 · Aug 6, 2013

lol at korver and kirilenko

CrazyDave · Aug 6, 2013

Pull_Up_3 said: ↑

lol at korver and kirilenko
Click to expand...

Yeah, author is from Utah?

no way AK is top ten any more. Even when he was at his best, his foul hard flop harder style of play would keep him off my list. That and being a member of the Jazz.

LandryFields · Aug 6, 2013

OP should clarify that these rankings are based on WARP, it's a statistic like PER or PPG, TS%, etc. with some adjustments.

Ariza4MVP · Aug 6, 2013

Should not take any of these lists seriously at all.

The PG list didn't have Tony Parker top 10 lmao.

zaam · Aug 6, 2013

Kind of a lazy analysis by ESPN.

I like Leonard a lot, but would you seriously put him above George?
Batum above George? Really?

And saving homerism for last — Korver above Parsons???? If you read on, the author actually has Parsons at 10, TIED with Matt Barnes and Jared Dudley.

How would this list look if the criteria shifted toward a more realistic question — with the more pertinent question being "who would you take right now to build your team with?" In other words, which SFs really have the most overall value? It's sort of like the SG rankings. Yes, you might argue DWade and Kobe are superior to Harden, but if you could pick any one 2 guard to have on your team, does anyone not take Harden?

PainNoLove · Aug 6, 2013

10th sounds good.

SF3isBack!! · Aug 6, 2013

Ariza4MVP said: ↑

Should not take any of these lists seriously at all.

The PG list didn't have Tony Parker top 10 lmao.
Click to expand...

lol sad. Writers are bored, all these lists and none of them are right.

Scolalist · Aug 6, 2013

1. Durant
2. George
3. Deng
4 Pierce
5. Leonard
6. Iguodala
7. Batum
8. Parsons
9. Gay
10. Barnes

finsraider · Aug 6, 2013

10th is about right for Parsons. I'd probably take him over Korver, but it would be hard to put him over anyone else on that list.

sleepyazn · Aug 6, 2013

Parsons can be alot higher if he just works on his wing threes. The guy shoots 30% from there, worst in the NBA. Top of the key and corner three's Parsons is absolutely money but wing threes, the dude is terrible at.

DaGreatest · Aug 6, 2013

BSPN. Nuff said.

Sweet Lou 4 2 · Aug 6, 2013

Parsons should be 9. He benefits a lot from playing next to Harden but definitely better than Korver.

hikanoo49 · Aug 6, 2013

Chandler should def be in the top 15

I think Gay and Deng are better but Chandler has the potential to crack the top 8

monster · Aug 6, 2013

Scolalist said: ↑

1. Durant
2. George
3. Deng
4 Pierce
5. Leonard
6. Iguodala
7. Batum
8. Parsons
9. Gay
10. Barnes
Click to expand...

Looks pretty reasonable. Hopefully Chandler will keep moving up the list, but he needs to put together another solid 1-2 seasons.

asmith8266 · Aug 6, 2013

People pay ESPN to read this garbage?

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Chandler Parsons only ranks as the 10th best SF

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