ClutchFans
ClutchFans
ClutchFans Latest:
Rockets honored Dwight agreement with agent in letting Parsons out of his contract


Go Back   ClutchFans > Basketball > Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
James Harden is as good a playmaker as Jeremy Lin.
Tags:  2012, basketball, carlos delfino, chandler parsons, greg smith, houston rockets, james harden, jeremy lin, marcus morris, nba, omer asik, patrick patterson, toney douglas Tags
RoxD is offline Old 01-01-2013, 07:53 AM   #1
RoxD
Member
RoxD is Terrence Jones -- on a good road but it's early
Since: Mar 2007
Posts: 337
Member: #22848
    Reply With Quote
By better playmaker, I mean the one who makes all the players on court better, including himself, not just the one who makes other on-court players better. The difference lies in the inclusion/exclusion of the playmaker himself. We'll keep this difference in mind when assessing the playmaking abilities of James Harden and Jeremy Lin.

As individual players, James Harden has a much better stats line so far this season than Jeremy Lin. And Jeremy Lin makes it up by making other on-court players better.
Stats of James Harden and Jeremy Lin this Season, as of Dec. 31, 2012
PlayerGP1MIN1FG% 1 3P% 1FT% 1REB1AST1TO 1STL1BLK1PTSEFF48M
Jeremy Lin3032.543.2%27.1%81.8%3.86.32.91.80.412.022.13
James Harden2938.344.6%36.5%85.8%4.55.23.61.80.526.029.46

I have no direct stats data of individual players showing Jeremy Lin making them better. Yet to the same effect, I have found the stats data of the Rockets as a whole when Jeremy Lin (and James harden) is both on court and off court.
Stats of the Rockets with James Harden and Jeremy Lin on Court and on Bench
Player111111111GP1MIN1FG% 1 3P% 1FT% 1REB1AST1TO 1STL1BLK1PTSEFF48M
Jeremy Linon court3097445.9%34.9%77.5%43.622.516.78.94.3104.1116.2
Jeremy Linoff court3048143.7%36.5%75.6%42.022.015.98.23.7104.3111.4
James Hardenon court29111045.9%34.0%77.3%43.122.116.38.53.8105.3115.7
James Hardenoff court3034543.1%39.6%75.2%43.023.216.69.05.1100.6111.1

If we define the On-Court Impact Factor (OCIF) of a player on the team as the difference between the team's EFF48M when the player is on court and the team's EFF48M when the player is off court, we can find that the OCIFs for James Harden and Jeremy Lin are +4.6 and +4.8 respectively. By considering the fact that both players have played relatively long time each game, we can conclude that these two players' playmaking abilities are roughly the same.

We should understand that the limited sample size, i.e., only 30 games into this season, may subject this conclusion to further scrutiny.

The On-Court Impact Factor (OCIF) needs further look at. The OCIFs for the Rockets players are:
On-Court Impact
PlayerGP1MIN 1OCIF
Jeremy Lin3032.5+4.8
James Harden2938.3+4.6
Omer Asik3030.5+3.0
Chandler Parsons2936.7-5.6
Patrick Patterson2228.4-8.1
Carlos Delfino2124.8+8.5
Greg Smith2514.3+6.5
Marcus Morris2923.0+2.3
Toney Douglas2920.5-0.2

It is worth noting that the backup players have very good OCIFs. And Carlos Delfino has a particularly high OCIF at +8.5. Could he become the NBA Sixth Man of the Year this season?

At the end, I would like to sum it up as follows:
James Harden has a better individual stats line this season so far, while Jeremy Lin makes it up by having made other on court players better. The result is that James Harden is as good a playmaker as Jeremy Lin.
 
Sponsored Link
Orange is offline Old 01-01-2013, 07:54 AM   #2
Orange
Member
Orange is Chandler Parsons -- lookin' mighty fineOrange is Chandler Parsons -- lookin' mighty fine
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 950
Member: #51609
    Reply With Quote
All I need is the eye test to know that.
 
ch0c0b0fr34k is offline Old 01-01-2013, 07:59 AM   #3
ch0c0b0fr34k
Member
ch0c0b0fr34k is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously goodch0c0b0fr34k is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously good
Since: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,993
Member: #30747
    Reply With Quote
Does OCIF account for Assist-to-Turnover Ratio?

__________________
"I shot (free throws) like I was Mark Price. I had a slower song tonight in my head. Last night I had a fast song and I was going too fast. Tonight I had a couple slow jams playing in my head and I did pretty good so I'm going to keep it up. ... The playlist was some Tank, some Tyrese and some Usher and some Beyonce. And on the Beyonce's I hit all net so I might have to keep singing Beyonce."
- Dwight Howard on his excellent free throw shooting technique
 
CheukLau is offline Old 01-01-2013, 08:07 AM   #4
CheukLau
Member
CheukLau is Terrence Jones -- on a good road but it's early
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,021
Member: #49293
    Reply With Quote
I will consider using the over all team +/- per min rather than EFF48M. The actual difference in points is much more meaningful than the statistical makeup rating such as EFF48M.
 
haoafu is offline Old 01-01-2013, 08:08 AM   #5
haoafu
Contributing Member
haoafu is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously goodhaoafu is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously good
Since: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,902
Member: #18655
    Reply With Quote
The first thing comes to mind about playmaking is the ability to assist. Otherwise good thread.
 
CheukLau is offline Old 01-01-2013, 08:18 AM   #6
CheukLau
Member
CheukLau is Terrence Jones -- on a good road but it's early
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,021
Member: #49293
    Reply With Quote
Here is how EFF is a baised measurement
EFF is defined by ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).

Where Harden made an iso the overall all team EFF will be increased by 2

Where Lin made an PnR the overall all team EFF will be increased by 3 (cuz of the asset)

Also, EFF doesn't reflect the impact on defense. I do expect Harden will play much more lazier D than Lin.
 
RoxD is offline Old 01-01-2013, 08:23 AM   #7
RoxD
Member
RoxD is Terrence Jones -- on a good road but it's early
Since: Mar 2007
Posts: 337
Member: #22848
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by ch0c0b0fr34k View Post
Does OCIF account for Assist-to-Turnover Ratio?
It takes into account both assist and turnover in the form of a difference, instead of a ratio. Similar effect, I think.
 
JayZ750 is offline Old 01-01-2013, 08:35 AM   #8
JayZ750
Contributing Member
JayZ750 is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved hereJayZ750 is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved hereJayZ750 is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved hereJayZ750 is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved hereJayZ750 is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved hereJayZ750 is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved hereJayZ750 is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved hereJayZ750 is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved here
Since: May 2000
Posts: 14,064
Member: #1462
    Reply With Quote
Good intro to stat post. Keep reading the board. Pay attention specifically to durvasa's posts, and you'll keep improving in your sports statistical analysis.
 
RoxD is offline Old 01-01-2013, 08:41 AM   #9
RoxD
Member
RoxD is Terrence Jones -- on a good road but it's early
Since: Mar 2007
Posts: 337
Member: #22848
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by CheukLau View Post
Here is how EFF is a baised measurement
EFF is defined by ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).
Where Harden made an iso the overall all team EFF will be increased by 2
Where Lin made an PnR the overall all team EFF will be increased by 3 (cuz of the asset)
Also, EFF doesn't reflect the impact on defense. I do expect Harden will play much more lazier D than Lin.
You are correct in pointing out the overall team EFF is increased more with assists than with iso play. Well, assist number is considered more important in playmaking ability assessment. Therefore an increase in team EFF with assists is valid and necessary, as far as playmaking assessment is concerned.

Again, I agree that EFF may not fully reflect the impact on defense, but it actually takes into account some defensive parameters, such as Rebounds, Steals, and Blocks. And some other defensive efforts may be translated into Points.
 
Joe Fan is offline Old 01-01-2013, 08:41 AM   #10
Joe Fan
Member
Joe Fan is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously goodJoe Fan is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously good
Since: Jun 1999
Posts: 998
Member: #546
    Reply With Quote
Good effort at a providing a new look at a somewhat worn out topic.

However, I have always been a fan of guard oriented offenses and so am thrilled with what we suddenly have now. Further, I don't see the Lin/Harden head-to-head comparisons as the correct metric for analysis. From my bias, the better way to look at it is as complementary parts.

__________________
"I'm so much taller than Andre that I can see his top of the head when I was catching him. He shot it, I just raise my hand, and took it," Yao Ming on chasing down Andre Miller.
 
roxxy is offline Old 01-01-2013, 08:44 AM   #11
roxxy
Member
roxxy is Omer Asik -- working the boardsroxxy is Omer Asik -- working the boardsroxxy is Omer Asik -- working the boardsroxxy is Omer Asik -- working the boards
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 5,120
Member: #51508
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by haoafu View Post
The first thing comes to mind about playmaking is the ability to assist. Otherwise good thread.
Agreed & looking at the synergy stats Lin accounts for 27.86% of the Rockets overall team assists James Harden 22.21%. I don't think Harden is as good as a playmaker as Lin (although Harden is damn good) when taking in the broad sample of games & percentage of possessions in which each individual garnered an assist but Harden doesn't need to be. Let Lin make plays, let Harden score. Let them focus on what each is best at.

__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by vlaurelio View Post
either that or Harden is being vastly underrated by a so called Rockets fan who supposedly watched majority of the Rockets games last season where Harden night in and night out carry the Rockets offense and torch whatever defense the opposing team throws at him
Quote:
Originally Posted by vlaurelio View Post
stats are only credible if they point to jlin as the better player
Stats: Advanced Stats Primer | Basketball-Reference | Hoop Data | Team Rankings | NBA WOWY! | NBA.com (Advanced) | Vorped | Popcorn Machine | NBA Graphs
 
meh is offline Old 01-01-2013, 08:44 AM   #12
meh
Contributing Member
meh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boardsmeh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boardsmeh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boardsmeh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boardsmeh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boardsmeh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boardsmeh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boardsmeh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boardsmeh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boardsmeh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boardsmeh is Moses Malone -- a well-known beast on the boards
Since: Jun 2002
Posts: 14,519
Member: #4868
    Reply With Quote
Every Rockets coach/front office guy, when talking about Harden, emphasized his playmaking skills before his scoring ability. There's a reason why the Rockets went with Douglas and Delfino together with Harden during crunch time. Give the guy shooters on offense, and he can go to work.
 
durvasa is offline Old 01-01-2013, 10:18 AM   #13
durvasa
Contributing Member
durvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure gold
Since: Feb 2006
Posts: 27,007
Member: #16420
    Reply With Quote
I tried to do a similar analysis as what the OP is doing here last season. I used a slightly different approach, but maybe it would give some ideas.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=217419

In Hollinger's report on Harden, he says: "The second coming of Manu Ginobili, Harden technically plays shooting guard but is really a huge pick-and-roll point guard." Of course, Harden's main function on our team is to be a scorer because he's so good at it, but I'd say he's also the best on the team at making the accurate skip pass to the perimeter or the wrap-around pass in the paint.

I still think a "playmaker" is someone who, literally, "makes plays". While we may usually associate it with a player who orchestrates an offense and distributes the ball, like a quarterback, I look at it more as someone who creates good shots for his team. If Chris Paul does his dribbling magic and sticks a 12 footer jumper over a helpless defender, to me that's one facet of his playmaking brilliance. Its just a disagreement over terminology, though.
 
roxxy is offline Old 01-01-2013, 10:23 AM   #14
roxxy
Member
roxxy is Omer Asik -- working the boardsroxxy is Omer Asik -- working the boardsroxxy is Omer Asik -- working the boardsroxxy is Omer Asik -- working the boards
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 5,120
Member: #51508
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by durvasa View Post

In Hollinger's report on Harden, he says: "The second coming of Manu Ginobili, Harden technically plays shooting guard but is really a huge pick-and-roll point guard." Of course, Harden's main function on our team is to be a scorer because he's so good at it, but I'd say he's also the best on the team at making the accurate skip pass to the perimeter or the wrap-around pass in the paint.

How many times has Harden made that wrap around pass in the paint? I have only seen him do it like once which was last night. Have there been other times that I missed.

__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by vlaurelio View Post
either that or Harden is being vastly underrated by a so called Rockets fan who supposedly watched majority of the Rockets games last season where Harden night in and night out carry the Rockets offense and torch whatever defense the opposing team throws at him
Quote:
Originally Posted by vlaurelio View Post
stats are only credible if they point to jlin as the better player
Stats: Advanced Stats Primer | Basketball-Reference | Hoop Data | Team Rankings | NBA WOWY! | NBA.com (Advanced) | Vorped | Popcorn Machine | NBA Graphs
 
haoafu is offline Old 01-01-2013, 10:27 AM   #15
haoafu
Contributing Member
haoafu is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously goodhaoafu is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously good
Since: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,902
Member: #18655
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by roxxy View Post
Agreed & looking at the synergy stats Lin accounts for 27.86% of the Rockets overall team assists James Harden 22.21%. I don't think Harden is as good as a playmaker as Lin (although Harden is damn good) when taking in the broad sample of games & percentage of possessions in which each individual garnered an assist but Harden doesn't need to be. Let Lin make plays, let Harden score. Let them focus on what each is best at.
Yes, In terms of passing I'd say Harden is a good playmaker for a SG, but an average one for PG. Overall harden is a better player with his shooting and driving at this stage, and that's why he handles the ball a lot(not because of his passing is the best).

For the greater good of our team, Lin should initiate offense and then either assist other players immediately or give the ball to harden at his comfort zone and let him operate. Harden can shoot, drive or pass as needed.
 
Knickskiller is offline Old 01-01-2013, 10:33 AM   #16
Knickskiller
Member
Knickskiller is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously goodKnickskiller is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously good
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,953
Member: #52456
    Reply With Quote
you guys want to go back to Sampson offense ?
 
fogo18182028 is offline Old 01-01-2013, 10:33 AM   #17
fogo18182028
Member
fogo18182028 is Royce White -- lots of promise, bad first impression
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 212
Member: #45107
    Reply With Quote
Am more surprised that Lin has the highest on court impact.
 
Akim523 is offline Old 01-01-2013, 10:35 AM   #18
Akim523
Member
Akim523 is Chandler Parsons -- lookin' mighty fineAkim523 is Chandler Parsons -- lookin' mighty fine
Since: May 2008
Posts: 3,656
Member: #31714
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by roxxy View Post
How many times has Harden made that wrap around pass in the paint? I have only seen him do it like once which was last night. Have there been other times that I missed.
Those are Hollinger's analysis, nevertheless I've seen it plenty of times when he was in OKC. When it comes to Rockets, I remember there's some sort of stats that indicates Both Lin and Harden have a high ast% close to the basket and out on the 3pt line --- Kudos to Durvasa.

I have to agree with Durvasa here, playmaking is a broad term and making plays includes scoring as well, in this sense and in this sense alone Harden is far and away the best player on the team.
 
durvasa is offline Old 01-01-2013, 10:38 AM   #19
durvasa
Contributing Member
durvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure golddurvasa is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure gold
Since: Feb 2006
Posts: 27,007
Member: #16420
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by roxxy View Post
How many times has Harden made that wrap around pass in the paint? I have only seen him do it like once which was last night. Have there been other times that I missed.
During the season, I think he's made a number of good passes to Asik or Smith in traffic while driving into the painted area. Maybe not all wrap-around, but that's what I remember. Subjectively, it seems to me that he does a better job at this than anyone else on the team, but I could be wrong.
 
torocan is offline Old 01-01-2013, 10:45 AM   #20
torocan
Member
torocan is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved heretorocan is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved heretorocan is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved heretorocan is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved heretorocan is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved heretorocan is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved heretorocan is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved heretorocan is Calvin Murphy -- loud and loved here
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 4,041
Member: #52386
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by fogo18182028 View Post
Am more surprised that Lin has the highest on court impact.
Personally, I don't find it that shocking.

Lin generates assists at a rate of approximately 29% of his possessions. This is the highest rate of passing by far on the Rockets. Compare this with Parsons, Douglas and Harden who are around the 17-18% rate in terms of assists per 100 possessions.

In other words, Jeremy looks to create for his team mates vs plays for himself at almost double the rate of any other player. This means that every person who's on the court KNOWS that Jeremy will try to get them the ball, as long as they work to put themselves into a position to score.

This is part of what Jeremy brings to the team. It was something Knicks fans noticed all throughout last year's season. The Knicks just played Harder and shared the ball more when Jeremy was on the floor. They ran more on breaks, they worked harder to get themselves open on cuts, they worked to generate and get screens because they KNEW that the ball would find them.

We see the same this year. Players are always running on the break when Jeremy has the ball because they KNOW Jeremy will try to find them with those cross court passes. They move and try to cut to the basket, to lose their defender, and to put themselves in position to score.

It's the polar opposite of ISO ball. Yes, Jeremy Lin can be an effective scorer, but what he really brings to the table is a share the ball mentality that elevates the players around him.

__________________
The problem with the "eye test" is most of us are half blind.

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/03/22/yo...games-so-what/
 

Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
[Video] ESPN The Mag: Jeremy Lin & James Harden rawool Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves 66 11-28-2012 06:47 PM
Omer Asik Is Making James Harden and Jeremy Lin Look Good youngshev03 Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves 20 11-14-2012 12:45 AM
Jeremy Lin and James Harden are the NBA’s best backcourt??? primtim24 Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves 0 11-04-2012 04:43 PM
In Houston, Jeremy Lin and James Harden Plot Revenge on the NBA dtrain0928 Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves 2 11-02-2012 06:02 PM
Funny Taiwanese Animation on James Harden and Jeremy Lin munco Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves 24 11-01-2012 11:13 AM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.