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Eye popping stat, trends and How Good can this Team be?
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crash5179 is online now Old 11-28-2012, 12:23 PM   #1
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Experience

Number NBA starts:
JHard - 21
2Pat - 20
JLin - 31
Asik - 16
Mook - 1
Total Team Starts minus Parssons = 89

Chandler Parsons Total Starts = 71

We all know this is the youngest team in the NBA but what is just as amazing is the number (or lack of) NBA starts the team has. By far the player on the team with the most NBA starts is Chandler Parsons, a 2nd round pick with less than a seasons worth of starts under his belt. The rest of the team as a whole barely has a seasons worth of starts combined. For a team that is both the youngest in the NBA and the least experienced in terms of age, NBA total experience and NBA starting experience; every win against end older more experienced NBA teams should be seen as a major accomplishment.

The team looks to be figuring it out a lot faster than most NBA so called experts thought. Wins against ATL, CHI & NYK have got to be considered unexpected for such a young and inexperienced team. Of course a major test starts tonight against OKC.

Trends

In the first 5 games the Rockets averaged 19.4 turn overs a game with a high of 21 and a low of 18.

In the last 9 games the Rockets are averaging 15.1 with a high game of 23 and a low game of 11.

That is an improvement of better than 4 turnovers a game in a very short time. The 15.1 turnovers in the last 9 games would put Houston right in the middle of the league for turn overs a game. As it stands now they are currently next to last with 16.8 turn overs a game. That's an amazing improvement for the youngest team in the NBA in terms of both age and experience.

Chandler, 2Pat and JLin are also trending upward. Both Asik and JHard are performing as expected or maybe even a little better bit the only thing we really need to so from those guys, is can they keep it up throughout the season.

Parsons has played well all year, but in the 1st few games he didn't really look like there was any major improvement from last season. In the first 4 games he averaged 8.5 PPG, .324 FG%, .250 3pt%. In the last 10 games he has shown his improvement and in those games he is averaging 18.6 PPG, .518 FG%, .474 3pt%. That's just amazing IMO for a player that does not even have a season full of starts under his belt. As is the case with all of the Rockets, the question is, can he maintain this production throughout the season? Isn't it logical to assume that he is still improving and we still have not seen his best? That is scary, especially considering the type of defense he plays and the way he fills up the rest of the stats sheet with rebounds and assists.

Paterson is playing the type of game we expected bit more recently he is playing it at a higher level than I expected. In Pats first 9 games he was averaging 10.8 PPG & .471 FG% but in his last 5 games he is averaging 17 PPG & .571 FG%. Clearly, Pat has to get better at rebounding and boxing out but if he continues to gain confedence and his offense continues to be reliable I'm willing to live with his lack of rebounding. He still prefers the mid range jumper but is showing more of a willingness to score inside with his little baby hook shot.

JLin has shown signs of being the player we thought he would be when Daryl Morey signed him away from the Knicks. His passing and defense has been as good or better than advertised but he scoring has been so bad that it has created a strain on the rest of the scorers on the floor with him. But in the last two games his outside shot is falling which will prevent defenses from ignoring him on the perimeter and open up more scoring opertunities for his team mates and more chances for him to drive the ball into the paint for high percentage shots. In his last 2 games he is averaging 14.5 PPG, .619 FG% and .500 3pt%. Two games does not really show a trend but it is the first signs that Jeremy may be pulling himself out of his shooting slump. He really needs to hit over .400 FG% and over .330 3pt% in order to be effective and for teams to play him honestly on the perimeter.

How Good Can They Be

Not just this season but moving forward? I personally did not think the Rockets would be .500 after 14 games. I keep thinking that they do not play like the youngest and least experienced team in the NBA, they are looking just as good and even better in some areas (defense) than last seasons team. Obviously this next stretch of games is likely to expose their your and inexperience but if the Rockets can go 3 and 3 in the next six games then a lot of teams had better take notice because they will be better in the 2nd half of the season and they will be play-off contenders.

What DM has done is put together a team with a bunch of players that can play on both ends of the court. Pat is only average at defense but that is still significantly better than Scola plus he is starting to look reliable in offense. Asik is showing that he is not a liability on offense and that he can hit a free throw. Parsons was essentially a defensive specialist last season but has turned himself into a legit offensive threat with a complete game. Harden is clearly an all-star talent that plays both ends of the court. If the last couple of games turn out to not be a fluke then JLin is a two way player as well. Marcus Morris is playing defense (I didn't think that was possible) and looks like a legit offensive threat off of the bench.

There is no question that this team needs another legit all-star to be a contender to come out of the West but with the way they are playing I think they are already play-off contenders... Of course the next six games can go along way towards validating that opinion.
 
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durvasa is offline Old 11-28-2012, 12:32 PM   #2
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Interesting.

Morey also mentioned in yesterday's radio interview that McHale had more career minutes than all the Rockets on the current roster combined.
 
Beard is offline Old 11-28-2012, 12:34 PM   #3
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incredible thinking about the youth and inexperience of this team watching the 3rd Q last night
 
AroundTheWorld is offline Old 11-28-2012, 12:37 PM   #4
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Great thread. Lots of promise.

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ch0c0b0fr34k is offline Old 11-28-2012, 12:37 PM   #5
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It'd be interesting comparing the Rockets now to the OKC Thunder in a similar year in terms of # starts, # years in NBA, and team record.

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HMMMHMM is offline Old 11-28-2012, 12:45 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash5179 View Post
How Good Can They Be

[...]

With the way they are playing I think they are already play-off contenders...
Hollinger's metrics agree. Rockets are #11 in his power rankings. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

If the Rockets indeed make the playoffs or come close to doing so I'd give this coaching staff a lot of credit, because I thought there was no way they'd have any chance at all of doing so.
This also goes back to HajkoV-BR's thread that got merged about the Raptors announcers being very compartmental about the Rockets offense, which I very much agree(d) with.

Hopefully the team can keep it up.
 
Sen89 is offline Old 11-28-2012, 12:48 PM   #7
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We go through this every year.

The difference is there's a lot more false hope this year thanks to all the change.
 
Sydeffect is offline Old 11-28-2012, 12:55 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sen89 View Post
We go through this every year.

The difference is there's a lot more false hope this year thanks to all the change.
Why exactly is it false hope?

Last 3 misses were with a mediocre roster.
 
BamBam is online now Old 11-28-2012, 01:10 PM   #9
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Great read!!

This team had Miami down for the count and embarrassed
New York, with one more star-player and a little more
experience the Rockets will be once again be among the
elite teams in the NBA........Hopefully..
...................
...................
...................

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Billionzz is offline Old 11-28-2012, 01:12 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sen89 View Post
We go through this every year.

The difference is there's a lot more false hope this year thanks to all the change.
or

There could be real hope since a lot of players have yet to play to their full potential.
 
crash5179 is online now Old 11-28-2012, 01:22 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HMMMHMM View Post
Hollinger's metrics agree. Rockets are #11 in his power rankings. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

If the Rockets indeed make the playoffs or come close to doing so I'd give this coaching staff a lot of credit, because I thought there was no way they'd have any chance at all of doing so.
This also goes back to HajkoV-BR's thread that got merged about the Raptors announcers being very compartmental about the Rockets offense, which I very much agree(d) with.

Hopefully the team can keep it up.
I agree about the the coaching. I think they have done a terrific job and just as important is that the players on the floor seem to fit together. I know some posters believe JLin would be a better fit with JHard if he were a better spot up shooter but I think Asik is the perfect fit alongside Patterson because he covers Pats deficiencies so well. Pat has a really nice outside game which keeps the post uncluttered on the offensive end with Asik spending so much time there. Of course I think Chandler has such a well rounded game that he fits would fit well with any group of players.
 
BraveFox is offline Old 11-28-2012, 01:23 PM   #12
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GREAT POST MATE!

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash5179 View Post
Experience

Number NBA starts:
JHard - 21
2Pat - 20
JLin - 31
Asik - 16
Mook - 1
Total Team Starts minus Parssons = 89

Chandler Parsons Total Starts = 71

We all know this is the youngest team in the NBA but what is just as amazing is the number (or lack of) NBA starts the team has. By far the player on the team with the most NBA starts is Chandler Parsons, a 2nd round pick with less than a seasons worth of starts under his belt. The rest of the team as a whole barely has a seasons worth of starts combined. For a team that is both the youngest in the NBA and the least experienced in terms of age, NBA total experience and NBA starting experience; every win against end older more experienced NBA teams should be seen as a major accomplishment.

The team looks to be figuring it out a lot faster than most NBA so called experts thought. Wins against ATL, CHI & NYK have got to be considered unexpected for such a young and inexperienced team. Of course a major test starts tonight against OKC.

Trends

In the first 5 games the Rockets averaged 19.4 turn overs a game with a high of 21 and a low of 18.

In the last 9 games the Rockets are averaging 15.1 with a high game of 23 and a low game of 11.

That is an improvement of better than 4 turnovers a game in a very short time. The 15.1 turnovers in the last 9 games would put Houston right in the middle of the league for turn overs a game. As it stands now they are currently next to last with 16.8 turn overs a game. That's an amazing improvement for the youngest team in the NBA in terms of both age and experience.

Chandler, 2Pat and JLin are also trending upward. Both Asik and JHard are performing as expected or maybe even a little better bit the only thing we really need to so from those guys, is can they keep it up throughout the season.

Parsons has played well all year, but in the 1st few games he didn't really look like there was any major improvement from last season. In the first 4 games he averaged 8.5 PPG, .324 FG%, .250 3pt%. In the last 10 games he has shown his improvement and in those games he is averaging 18.6 PPG, .518 FG%, .474 3pt%. That's just amazing IMO for a player that does not even have a season full of starts under his belt. As is the case with all of the Rockets, the question is, can he maintain this production throughout the season? Isn't it logical to assume that he is still improving and we still have not seen his best? That is scary, especially considering the type of defense he plays and the way he fills up the rest of the stats sheet with rebounds and assists.

Paterson is playing the type of game we expected bit more recently he is playing it at a higher level than I expected. In Pats first 9 games he was averaging 10.8 PPG & .471 FG% but in his last 5 games he is averaging 17 PPG & .571 FG%. Clearly, Pat has to get better at rebounding and boxing out but if he continues to gain confedence and his offense continues to be reliable I'm willing to live with his lack of rebounding. He still prefers the mid range jumper but is showing more of a willingness to score inside with his little baby hook shot.

JLin has shown signs of being the player we thought he would be when Daryl Morey signed him away from the Knicks. His passing and defense has been as good or better than advertised but he scoring has been so bad that it has created a strain on the rest of the scorers on the floor with him. But in the last two games his outside shot is falling which will prevent defenses from ignoring him on the perimeter and open up more scoring opertunities for his team mates and more chances for him to drive the ball into the paint for high percentage shots. In his last 2 games he is averaging 14.5 PPG, .619 FG% and .500 3pt%. Two games does not really show a trend but it is the first signs that Jeremy may be pulling himself out of his shooting slump. He really needs to hit over .400 FG% and over .330 3pt% in order to be effective and for teams to play him honestly on the perimeter.

How Good Can They Be

Not just this season but moving forward? I personally did not think the Rockets would be .500 after 14 games. I keep thinking that they do not play like the youngest and least experienced team in the NBA, they are looking just as good and even better in some areas (defense) than last seasons team. Obviously this next stretch of games is likely to expose their your and inexperience but if the Rockets can go 3 and 3 in the next six games then a lot of teams had better take notice because they will be better in the 2nd half of the season and they will be play-off contenders.

What DM has done is put together a team with a bunch of players that can play on both ends of the court. Pat is only average at defense but that is still significantly better than Scola plus he is starting to look reliable in offense. Asik is showing that he is not a liability on offense and that he can hit a free throw. Parsons was essentially a defensive specialist last season but has turned himself into a legit offensive threat with a complete game. Harden is clearly an all-star talent that plays both ends of the court. If the last couple of games turn out to not be a fluke then JLin is a two way player as well. Marcus Morris is playing defense (I didn't think that was possible) and looks like a legit offensive threat off of the bench.

There is no question that this team needs another legit all-star to be a contender to come out of the West but with the way they are playing I think they are already play-off contenders... Of course the next six games can go along way towards validating that opinion.
 
HamJam is offline Old 11-28-2012, 01:34 PM   #13
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I agree with the OP's overall opinion, but disagree with how you carve up the games in order to get the statistical results that support you point. For example, you take the first 9 games versus the last 5 to talk about Patterson but take the first 5 and the last 9 to talk about the turnovers -- this seems arbitrary and done to support the preconceived view you took into the data.

All that said, I agree with your overall stance -- this is a young team that is inexperienced in general and in playing together specifically, and they are getting better and improving quickly, both individually and as a team. I love how the roster is constructed with efficient offensive players like Harden and impact-full defensive players like Asik and Parsons.

Obviously looking at season splits will be a lot more informative when we have a larger sample size and when we can look at the first 10 games vs the games 11-20, or the first 20 vs 21-40. My main point though is that we need to let facts alter our opinions, and not the other way around.

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Asian Sensation is offline Old 11-28-2012, 01:36 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sydeffect View Post
Why exactly is it false hope?

Last 3 misses were with a mediocre roster.
It wasn't thought of as "mediocre" earlier in the season last year when K-low was playing out of his mind and when Dragic kept us in the hunt. 2 years ago it also wasn't thought of as mediocre when K-mart was tearing it up. Only in the end when we realized we missed the playoffs and ended up with the 14th pick is when most of the board realized we were mediocre when in fact we were mediocre all along.

We've had "winning" seasons the last 3 seasons and still missed the playoffs. currently we're at .500 and everyone (myself included) is excited again but we're definitely on a hot stretch right now and I'm optimistic about the future but the reality is our guys are still young and inexperienced and with that comes inconsistency.

I think we'll continue to play around .500 ball and maybe even finish a few games above that by seasons end if things go well but I also wouldn't be surprised if we finished a few games below .500. Either way... that defines the term mediocre.

Fact of the matter is we're missing some key ingredients. A 2nd star, consistent PG guard play, a solid backup pg and center, rebounding from the 4spot, overall depth, experience and a good coach. Just to name a few. Of course some are more important than the others but those should be "known" problems that are/will hold us back.

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rockbox is offline Old 11-28-2012, 01:38 PM   #15
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You must pass some Reputation around before giving it to Crash5179 again!

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crash5179 is online now Old 11-28-2012, 01:56 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HamJam View Post
I agree with the OP's overall opinion, but disagree with how you carve up the games in order to get the statistical results that support you point. For example, you take the first 9 games versus the last 5 to talk about Patterson but take the first 5 and the last 9 to talk about the turnovers -- this seems arbitrary and done to support the preconceived view you took into the data.

All that said, I agree with your overall stance -- this is a young team that is inexperienced in general and in playing together specifically, and they are getting better and improving quickly, both individually and as a team. I love how the roster is constructed with efficient offensive players like Harden and impact-full defensive players like Asik and Parsons.

Obviously looking at season splits will be a lot more informative when we have a larger sample size and when we can look at the first 10 games vs the games 11-20, or the first 20 vs 21-40. My main point though is that we need to let facts alter our opinions, and not the other way around.
The statement in bold has a lot of merrit. However, they are the latest stretches for each during the season which shows progress. Unfortunately with so little data on any of these players as starters and in there current roles we are forced to evaluate small sample sizes in order to try and predict future success. It is important that I used the latest data to show progress and not just piecemealing data from any portion of the season. Having said that we should expect the players to have slumps and stretches of inconsistent play. The real gage on their progress will be if they can maintain their current level of play or even improve on it with a reasonable amount of consistency throughout the season.
 
Sydeffect is offline Old 11-28-2012, 02:05 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asian Sensation View Post
It wasn't thought of as "mediocre" earlier in the season last year when K-low was playing out of his mind and when Dragic kept us in the hunt. 2 years ago it also wasn't thought of as mediocre when K-mart was tearing it up. Only in the end when we realized we missed the playoffs and ended up with the 14th pick is when most of the board realized we were mediocre when in fact we were mediocre all along.

We've had "winning" seasons the last 3 seasons and still missed the playoffs. currently we're at .500 and everyone (myself included) is excited again but we're definitely on a hot stretch right now and I'm optimistic about the future but the reality is our guys are still young and inexperienced and with that comes inconsistency.

I think we'll continue to play around .500 ball and maybe even finish a few games above that by seasons end if things go well but I also wouldn't be surprised if we finished a few games below .500. Either way... that defines the term mediocre.

Fact of the matter is we're missing some key ingredients. A 2nd star, consistent PG guard play, a solid backup pg and center, rebounding from the 4spot, overall depth, experience and a good coach. Just to name a few. Of course some are more important than the others but those should be "known" problems that are/will hold us back.
We are both defining mediocrity in two different ways. I view mediocrity in an NBA sense, as a team that has no true star with aging vets. That has been the case the past 3 seasons.

The last 3 seasons had a roster with no true star. A star that could play well in most aspects of the game. Only one that came close to that was Dragic.

-Lowry was a great player, but he had nothing elite about him. He was short, but somewhat big. He had no elite skill-set or physical tools

-AB and Kmart were WAY to one-dimensional to expect

If we somehow kept Gogi, the roster around him would've been very limited in its potential due to the number of one-way players on that roster.

The last 3 seasons the Rockets had no future. This year Rockets finally have a star that has an elite skill set,size, and great athleticism..
 
MadMax is offline Old 11-28-2012, 02:07 PM   #18
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Until I got to see them in person last night, I was relegated to just looking at numbers.

I know they were just playing the Raptors...but I love the way they move the ball. I'm surprised at the chemistry that seems to exist so early in the season for these guys.

Beyond that...they're just a helluva lot of fun to watch. Hoping CSN Houston finds its way to UVerse quickly.
 
Convictedstupid is offline Old 11-28-2012, 02:15 PM   #19
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Great thread!

The past 6 or 7 games have been so much fun to watch (when I can watch them at least). The ball movement has improved drastically and it is nuts to think that this team is so young.
 
jscmedia is offline Old 11-28-2012, 02:16 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sen89 View Post
We go through this every year.

The difference is there's a lot more false hope this year thanks to all the change.
Why so pissy? Don't watch if all you see is re-runs. That is not what I see after following the Rockets for 30plus years.

This team is jelling, every fan can see this. If they make the playoffs I want all the doubters to fess up and jump on the bandwagon.

Oh look, they are getting on already! lol. hellagood!
 

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