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Rockets offense with Lin 'playmaking' out of PG position
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mike_lu is offline Old 11-19-2012, 09:44 AM   #1
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Some of the things I've spotted regarding the Rockets offense and Lin's play over the last two games, with Lin running play-making PG instead of spot-up 3pt shooter (or sitting on the bench in OT).

No, Lin may not have impacted the win-loss column (debatable if Lin was in for OT vs Portland, but certainly not debatable for the Lakers game). But it has made a big difference to the Rocket's offensive efficiency.

Lin's assists are up, 11 vs LAL and 10 vs POR (avg 34 min played), and he's still shooting like crap. But's it's not about Lin. Team assists are up - 30 & 24 (all in regulation, none in OT against POR... ), and team turnover down - 15 & 18 (including 1 in OT via Morris bad pass, plus 3 shots blocked in OT, meaning we didn't even get good shots off ).

So let me add in a little via eye-test ... and I think most of us can agree to what I see here, and the numbers back them up.

- Patterson is back to shooting 12-18ft jumpers, and despite our preference for tough vs soft players, it is HIS best weapon (how he shot 60% as a rookie). Not as a low-post option. 7-13 and 7-14 for 14/15pts is not bad. Can't expect a better run offense to make Patterson a FT shooter or rebounder though.

- Parsons is back shooting set 3s or getting a pass with his defender closing out on him, for either a step-in 2 or a lay-up/dunk from driving to the basket. 8-10 FG incld 4-5 3pts and 4-5FTs for 24pts and 8-15FGs incl. 2-6 3pts and 1-2FTs for 19 points (stats include 1 missed 3 pointer in OT)

- Asik is getting a couple of dunks or easy shots per game to offset his otherwise still developing offensive game, making his overall output on offense passable (ie better than expected).

- Harden is playing his more natural 2guard position, with less iso plays. Against LAL 7-18FG including 3-7on 3pts, and 3-5 on FTs. Against Portland in regulation 7-14 FG including 2-4 on 3pts and 9-9 on FTs, instead of 8-18FG and 11-12FTs including OT. This is a marked improvement vs the 6 games after the first two games when the Rockets played Lin off the ball.

And let's look at that 5 minutes of OT offense. It included
- Harden getting blocked 3 times on iso plays
- Harden getting an AND One + 1/2 FTs when a 3pt shot was needed
- TD getting up a 3pt shot and a 6 ft floater that missed
- Asik getting two points off free-throws on an offensive rebound and putback attempt, plus missing a 2pt shot attempt
- Parsons getting one 3pt shot attempt and missed

So basically, our offense, run by TD in OT, consisted of Harden getting blocked 3 times on iso, getting an AND 1 on iso, getting up a 2pt shot when a 3pt shot was needed, TD putting up two shots on a night where he was 2-9 heading into OT (having missed another two shots in the last 3 minutes and 16 seconds of the game when he entered with the Rockets leading 105-100), and Parsons getting one 3pt attempt.

The best shooters for the Rockets (excluding Harden) that night were Parsons 8-14 heading into OT, Morris 6-9 including 4-6 from 3s, and 2Pat 7-14. They got a total of 1 shot up between them, and TD himself taking 4 missed shots in the last 8min 16sec of the game on a 2-11 night.

Heck, for that last 8min 16 sec, he (& the offense) didn't get anybody any shots. Harden went iso. And nobody outside of Asik even got two shots up, and you can't really count Asik because one of the shots was a put-back off an offensive rebound. BTW, that was what was so baffling about Sampson not playing Lin in OT. Rockets had 4 players shooting well, and one PG distributing well, and playing good defense, while shooting poorly. He put in someone with no better defense, shooting even worse, and even worse, couldn't distribute it to the players shooting well.

TD running point and/or Harden going iso when the defenses tighten during the final stretches of the game just isn't high probability offense. It's also UGLY offense.

The last two game shows that Lin is having a much bigger impact than his scoring or shooting percentages shows. He is making his teammates better. Getting them the ball at the rights places to reinforce their strengths, not put them in a position to create shots that are lower probability. I think this we can agree with, just looking at the types of shots Parsons and Patterson are getting vs when Harden/TD are running PG.

Remember, it's not whether the shots go in or not on a particular night that defines your offense for the season ... it's what type of shots you're getting night in night out.

See a great post here by Torocan http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread...52#post7353752

Though this isn't about the Rockets or Lin's defense related to the 4-plus minutes before OT. If one wants to argue, they should read Torocan's post also http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread...73#post7355073

Any more? When you take a devout Christian with God on his side out of the game with 3:16 left ... you're bound to lose

Last edited by mike_lu; 11-19-2012 at 11:20 AM.
 
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durvasa is offline Old 11-19-2012, 09:52 AM   #2
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Nice post.

I like that Harden has played with a little more efficiency and the offensive attack has been spread out a bit more. If Lin can just relax a bit on those jumpers and shoot with confidence, he should be OK. He's thinking too much. Right now, makes/misses are less important than the offense not getting bogged down because players are hesitant.
 
hooroo is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:00 AM   #3
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Lin still looks like a guy who needs to play the same role as Harden to me.

Lin could be the missing piece for teams like the Bobcats, Detroit, or the Pacers.

No one on the Pacers can run PnR because they traded away Collison and Granger hasn't played this season.
 
meh is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:02 AM   #4
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There was never a question regarding Lin's playmaking skills even before this season. The Rockets gave him that money because he makes such good decisions with the ball in his hands.

But in the end, he still has to develop that shot. I don't care if he goes 1-5 from 3pt land every single night. He has to keep shooting until he becomes comfortable with it. If it means we lose a few winnable games this season, I could care less. Because I want Jeremy Lin to be able to shoot with confidence at some point in the future.
 
mike_lu is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:09 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hooroo View Post
Lin still looks like a guy who needs to play the same role as Harden to me.

Lin could be the missing piece for teams like the Bobcats, Detroit, or the Pacers.

No one on the Pacers can run PnR because they traded away Collison and Granger hasn't played this season.
No one says Lin has to do it on every possession, or Harden on every possession. Or a specific split. Just that it would look better with Lin initiating, and Harden being a secondary playmaker on any team is a LUXURY!!! He'll be better at it (secondary playmaker) than Lin, because off a broken play or broken offense, Harden will be able to better create offense for himself.

And a Harden iso is much more acceptable when we've run plays and nothing is available and there's 10 sec left on the shot clock. He'll get a few of those per game, no doubt. Even with Nash running point.
 
booster rocket is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:19 AM   #6
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Recent discourse has been rather enlightening with sound research. Especially impressive is MikeLu's post....wow. I think most agree that we can give lin till January to really improve his game and no longer use the knee injury as an excuse by fans for his subpar performance on the scoring side.
 
phantoman is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:22 AM   #7
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great post! i totally agree. There are too many lin bashers out there based on him missing shot but not enough educated watchers to know that Lin on the floor is better than Lin on the bench. He has consistently made good players, good steals. The only knock a person can say is that he sometimes drives into the paint looking lost when he gets to the rim.

The people that bash lin have expectations that are too high and aren't realistic. I think he will still have a solid season, could possibly avg 14 pt/8 ast/5bd/2.5 st (similar to last years) his current stats aren't bad either 10/7/4/2. We all know that he is in a shooting slump so it can only get better. The real problem is how he is being used.

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roxxy is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:24 AM   #8
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His playmaking is really good right now & honestly the attention he commands when he attacks sets up open looks for his teammates. But he needs to get his FG% up.

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either that or Harden is being vastly underrated by a so called Rockets fan who supposedly watched majority of the Rockets games last season where Harden night in and night out carry the Rockets offense and torch whatever defense the opposing team throws at him
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stats are only credible if they point to jlin as the better player
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GreatOne1978 is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:33 AM   #9
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You know what the problem is? Defense

Portland shot 51% from the field 40% from 3 point land
Lakers shot 54% from the field 44% from 3 point land

Cant win many games while you allow teams to shoot this high% from the field
 
megastahr is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:41 AM   #10
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yah I dont understand why people keep saying he sucks...I cant watch the games cause I dont have comcast...but I look at the box score and seems like hes doing great job in every other category for being in a shooting slump....

the funny thing is the fans reaction to his slump makes it worse...makes him stress and makes him have anxiety and try too hard...if we would support him and cheer him then he would eventually break out...

thats why players always leave philly and new york and kill it lol...but there are too many dumb fans here for that to happen.
 
mike_lu is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:42 AM   #11
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If you guys enjoyed this post, and don't mind another long post in a different thread, take a look at this one I wrote a few days ago.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=229389

Not trying to pump viewership as it is not a personal blog. But I wrote that piece when I was puzzled why the Rockets were running an offense that clearly minimized the strength of its players, not just Jeremy Lin, but Harden, Parsons and Patterson as well (Asik is a special case as there are no real offensive strength yet).

I felt the coaches may have been deliberately working on the weaknesses of the players, for there should be no other explanation. Everybody has the synergy data, and Morey knows his players strengths and weaknesses better than anyone.

Lo-and-behold ... and two games later, a lot of the questions were answered. All that really was needed, was a change in the starting PG's role to play PG. And thing fall back in place.

Not saying we'll be in the playoffs or start winning immediately, but it certainly resembles the type offense we were expecting with the players we got, regardless of whether the shots drop or not on a given night.
 
pnr is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:48 AM   #12
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Our offense is not the problem. We scored 109 points last night. Our defense is disastrous right now.
 
jamphus is offline Old 11-19-2012, 10:52 AM   #13
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can't agree more.

lin just have to find his shot and layup back.
 
mike_lu is offline Old 11-19-2012, 11:04 AM   #14
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Defense, I don't have numbers right now, but Lin, Parsons, Asik are going to be alright. And until we get Harden's usage down, he'll get a bit of a free ride on D also (deservedly). 2Pat is ok, actually, positionally, but he lacks the length to contest shots, and a few more rebounds especially at critical times wouldn't hurt.

I'm not ready to say T Jones is better than 2Pat now ... because we need to see more. But when you're going against LMA, Gasol, Bosh (when Asik sits) and Randolpf, and the PF spot is very strong in the NBA right now, you need to be at least trying some alternatives with athleticism and/or wingspan, or someone with a non-stop motor. Hope TJones or DMo can be, but 2Pat most likely will not develop into one.

Most specifically, Rockets second unit defense is horrendous. Smith and Aldrich especially. And Ppat when he goes to back-up 5. Morris has been good ... but he needs to stop trying to get fouled out every night. We're continously putting teams in the penalty late in quarters. Otherwise Morris has been playing pretty good D this year.

And lastly ... it's easier to look good on O riding a star player or hot hands when you're young. It's hard to look good on D when you're young. Especially when you have young interior defenders (Asik excluded, he's great on D). In many ways, McHale is right to work on team D before O, because for young teams, improving D has a better chance of helping you win than improving O.
 
onreego is offline Old 11-19-2012, 11:15 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by durvasa View Post
Nice post.

I like that Harden has played with a little more efficiency and the offensive attack has been spread out a bit more. If Lin can just relax a bit on those jumpers and shoot with confidence, he should be OK. He's thinking too much. Right now, makes/misses are less important than the offense not getting bogged down because players are hesitant.
Agreed. One of things I loved about Harden in OKC was that he was an efficient scoring threat. While I expected his efficiency to go down as an alpha, placing him in iso positions hurt that even more. When he is playing in the flow of the offense is where he works best. Due to lack of CSN I haven't seen much but does the coaching staff still use some of the OKC sets to get him shots?

As for Lin, I like him running the point and controlling the ball and I'm sure he'll get his shooting confidence back eventually. He just needs to keep attacking the basket.
 
Hank_1 is offline Old 11-19-2012, 11:15 AM   #16
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If we're going to make Harden our pg...maybe we should start Morris at sg and have Lin come off the bench. Having Morris sit in the corner makes a lot more sense to me than Lin being there. I also like Jones and Smith in the rotation.
 
daspydamayn is offline Old 11-19-2012, 11:28 AM   #17
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another jeremy lin thread........
 
Jenopogi is offline Old 11-19-2012, 11:29 AM   #18
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Lin needs to put that *****in* ball inside the rim. Stop sagging too far away from his man. Many times I saw him get burned by an open three from the opposing PG. Team Defense? Help defense? WTF, Lin, your man just drilled a 3-ball. Yeah, you can help - but dont forget your man. TD sticks to his man, he does help, but he sticks to his man. I for one is bewildered why is not in the OT, but after simmering down, Lin can not make a jumpshot, stay away from his guy who can make a 3, I get to see Sampson's logic. TD is bad, but sampson used what is left. If we had a better back-up (ie Livingston), we could have been in a better position benching Lin until he man up or shoot those effing balls.

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Jenopogi is offline Old 11-19-2012, 11:33 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank_1 View Post
If we're going to make Harden our pg...maybe we should start Morris at sg and have Lin come off the bench. Having Morris sit in the corner makes a lot more sense to me than Lin being there. I also like Jones and Smith in the rotation.
Amen, if we only have a better back-up PG. I think Lin can run the 2nd unit offense better, we can have a continuous attack. Lin can help "up" the game of the 2nd unit guys. He is a Leader.. him at starting PG with Harden also doing some PG stuffs looks redundant. Forget the 25mil, etc. What matters is winning games.

So yeah, let Harden, Parsons, Morris, PPat, Asik start. Lin is 6th man, he can run the offense with Delfino, TJones, Smith and whoever.

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mike_lu is offline Old 11-19-2012, 11:36 AM   #20
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I'll add in another stat on offense.

When the Rockets were playing with Lin resembling a PG, the four games Rockets score 105, 109, 111 (in regulation) and 108 ... avg 108

... and the 6 games with Lin as spot-up SG, 81 (in regulation), 87, 85, 96, 110, 96 ... avg 92.5.

I would like Lin to shoot 45% FG also (to be passable). Which means as opposed to hitting 3.5 shots per 10.2 as he is currently shooting, he hits 4.59/10.2 or an extra 1.09 shots per 10.2, or one more made FG per game.

Big effing deal. When Lin is playing his PG role, the team is so far averaging 15.5 points higher than when not. Small sample size goes both way here, on Lin's FG% and Rocket's offensive output with Lin playing proper PG or not.
 

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