ClutchFans
ClutchFans
ClutchFans Latest:
Podcast: Game 1 loss a wake-up call or death knell for Rockets?
anchel is offline Old 07-24-2012, 02:51 PM   #1
anchel
Member
anchel is Omer Asik -- working the boardsanchel is Omer Asik -- working the boardsanchel is Omer Asik -- working the boardsanchel is Omer Asik -- working the boards
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,310
Member: #44813
    Reply With Quote
Don't you see this pick as good and valuable as it's said, or it is potentially very dissapointing?
Remember the pick is protected if the Raptors make playoffs for the next years.

PLAYOFF TEAMS IN THE EAST LAST SEASON:

1.-Chicago -----> Without Rose until season advanced and without Asik. Still, good signings, and considering their coach and defensive structure (and the comeback of Rose by February/March), still a playoff team?

2.-Miami ---> playoff team

3.-Indiana ---> playoff team

4.-Boston ---> playoff team

5.-Atlanta ----> Lost JJ. Get back Horford. Likely a playoff team?

6.-Orlando ----> Losing DH, not a playoff team. Even with him at a very unconfortable situation, doubtful.

7.-New York ---> playoff team

8.-Philadelphia ---> have lost Brand, Lou Will, Weems; get Nick Young, Dorell Wright and Kwame. I'd say they get worse.


Of these 8 teams, we have 4 safe playoff picks, plus 2 probable/likely spots in Chicago and Atlanta.

Now, let's consider:


- Brooklyn Nets: With Deron-JJ-Wallace-Lopez, for sure should be a playoff team.

- Milwaukee: Dalembert can help at filling the hole at center after Bogut trade. Good backourt (Lamb a possible steal?), good defensive structure, maintain nucleus and coach. Definitely a contender for a playoff spot.

- Toronto: the Raptors lost Bargnani last season just when he was playing -by far- the best basketball of his career. Also they welcome Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, and a top-10 PG in Kyle Lowry. Add an overpayed Landry Fields who is anyway a player who help you win games. They are well coached, and you can expect improvements from young players like Ed Davis or DeRozan. In my opinion, they are candidates for the most improved team for next season, as well as playoff contenders.

- Washington Wizards: Another clear candidate for the most improved team. Not anymore a weak team inside with Nene+Okafor. Add one of the top rookies of last class, ready to contribute right now (Beal). Also to consider: Wall could explode at any moment. Don't have headcases like Blatche and McGee anymore.

I don't give playoff chances to the rest of teams. So we have:

- Miami, Indiana, Boston, New York, Brooklyn, as safe playoff spots. That's 5.

Then we have:

- Chicago, Atlanta, Philadeplhia, who as former playoff teams deserve at the least the benefit of the doubt. With Howard being traded now or at some time along the season, personally I don't give Orlando playoff hopes.

- And finally we have Milwaukee, Toronto and Washington as non-current playoff teams contenders.

So in TOTAL: 5 sure spots, plus 3 reachable spots for 6 more teams.


Lowry - Calderon
Fields - Ross
DeRozan - Kleiza
Bargnani - Ed Davis
Valanciunas - Amir Johnson

Could this roster make the playoffs and destroy the value of that pick for whatever team owns it by then?
 
Sponsored Link
thisiscaketown is offline Old 07-24-2012, 02:54 PM   #2
thisiscaketown
Member
thisiscaketown is Patrick Beverley -- showing a lot of promise
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 539
Member: #51736
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by anchel View Post
Could this roster make the playoffs and destroy the value of that pick for whatever team owns it by then?
Yes, it could.

__________________
Where were you when Toney Douglas did his 44 in 10?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nono View Post
Ah there is Lin, our #1 escape goat.
 
justtxyank is offline Old 07-24-2012, 02:56 PM   #3
justtxyank
Contributing Member
justtxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldjusttxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldjusttxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldjusttxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldjusttxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldjusttxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldjusttxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldjusttxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldjusttxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldjusttxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldjusttxyank is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure gold
Since: Jul 2005
Posts: 16,937
Member: #16238
    Reply With Quote
It's lottery protected in our favor. If the Raptors make the playoffs the pick rolls over.
 
macho87 is offline Old 07-24-2012, 02:56 PM   #4
macho87
Member
macho87 is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously goodmacho87 is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously good
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 901
Member: #47447
    Reply With Quote
If they make the.playoffs, they keep the pick until the following draft. So no, thet won't destroy the value by making the playoffs
 
REEKO_HTOWN is online now Old 07-24-2012, 02:56 PM   #5
REEKO_HTOWN
Contributing Member
REEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldREEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldREEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldREEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldREEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldREEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldREEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldREEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldREEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldREEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure goldREEKO_HTOWN is Hakeem Olajuwon -- reputation is pure gold
Since: Jun 2008
Posts: 29,194
Member: #32179
    Reply With Quote
Do you think the Raptors can make the playoffs for 3 straight years?

If you don't then the value of the pick is great.

__________________
"I ain't a fan of excuses, I'm a fan of go out and do it."-Patrick Beverley
 
withmustard is offline Old 07-24-2012, 02:57 PM   #6
withmustard
Member
withmustard is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously goodwithmustard is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously good
Since: Dec 2002
Posts: 1,752
Member: #9680
    Reply With Quote
They are one extened injury away from giving us a great pick.
 
RockFanFirst is offline Old 07-24-2012, 02:58 PM   #7
RockFanFirst
Member
RockFanFirst is Patrick Beverley -- showing a lot of promise
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 423
Member: #49996
    Reply With Quote
I'm not sure if the cast of characters around Lowry in TOR is better than the cast of characters around Lowry in HOU, and he couldn't get us to the playoffs. Granted, the west is tougher (generally) to make the cut, but I don't know if he makes them substaintally better.

We'll just have to see how the season plays out with injuries & such. As much as he flings himself into the paint and falls down (flops), the injuries could catch up with him at some point.
 
Mr. Clutch is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:04 PM   #8
Mr. Clutch
Contributing Member
Mr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemMr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemMr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemMr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemMr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemMr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemMr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemMr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemMr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemMr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemMr. Clutch is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite Hakeem
Since: Nov 2002
Posts: 22,923
Member: #7931
    Reply With Quote
Bargnani sucks.

Lowry and Fields will keep them afloat though.
 
anchel is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:11 PM   #9
anchel
Member
anchel is Omer Asik -- working the boardsanchel is Omer Asik -- working the boardsanchel is Omer Asik -- working the boardsanchel is Omer Asik -- working the boards
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,310
Member: #44813
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by REEKO_HTOWN View Post
Do you think the Raptors can make the playoffs for 3 straight years?

If you don't then the value of the pick is great.
I think they don't have that bad chances. Young team that could keep being a playoff team if is able to make the playoffs this year. Also I consider the immediacy or liquidity of the pick as something valuable.


Of course they are also one injury away from becoming a very good pick, but I don't see it something as assured as is being considered. They certainly have a good rotation and a very good coach. And I'm scared of Lowry.

- Bargnani believe it or not really was playing GREAT last season.
 
rocketseagles07 is online now Old 07-24-2012, 03:25 PM   #10
rocketseagles07
Member
rocketseagles07 is Terrence Jones -- on a good road but it's early
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 280
Member: #51501
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Clutch View Post
Bargnani sucks.

Lowry and Fields will keep them afloat though.
bargnani was averaging almost 20 ppg last year and he played very well. I think he will be the best player on the team this year...
 
gah is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:35 PM   #11
gah
Member
gah is Omer Asik -- working the boardsgah is Omer Asik -- working the boardsgah is Omer Asik -- working the boards
Since: Nov 2008
Posts: 2,266
Member: #35354
    Reply With Quote
With NY ousting Mr. Pringles and Nets becoming legit, the east doesn't look as weak on paper anymore. Toronto will have to be very well coached to make it comfortably into the playoffs, Casey's got the attitude so it's time to see what he's all about.
 
rocketblaze is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:36 PM   #12
rocketblaze
Member
rocketblaze is Chandler Parsons -- lookin' mighty finerocketblaze is Chandler Parsons -- lookin' mighty finerocketblaze is Chandler Parsons -- lookin' mighty fine
Since: May 2009
Posts: 4,181
Member: #41757
    Reply With Quote
I don't think they're a playoff team. I have them as the 9th-11th seed range in the east.

Also something else to consider is the difference in winning records between the borderline playoff teams in the East vs West. Border line playoff teams in the West generally have better winning record's then those in the east. Pushing the pick up in the lottery.

Personally, I think when its all said and done, that pick will be around the 10th -12th range.

__________________
Houston Rockets - Houston, TX
 
sew is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:37 PM   #13
sew
Member
sew is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously goodsew is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously good
Since: Apr 2009
Posts: 2,300
Member: #40017
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Clutch View Post
Bargnani sucks.

Lowry and Fields will keep them afloat though.
Fields is arguably their worst starter.

__________________
Before I walked through life, now I frolic.
 
DonatasFanboy is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:43 PM   #14
DonatasFanboy
Member
DonatasFanboy is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDonatasFanboy is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDonatasFanboy is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDonatasFanboy is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDonatasFanboy is James Harden -- racking up the points
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 8,778
Member: #50323
    Reply With Quote
No. I think the Raptors will be in the 5-8 range.
Keep in mind that their no.8 spot this year was very deceptive.
All those teams were bunched up. A couple more losses, and they get #2 instead of #8.

I don't think they'll improve. They basically depend on:

-Lowry fitting in very well and quickly. That's a decent bet. But Calderon is a nice offensive player. Lowry is an upgrade overall, Lowry fits their current coach better, and he adds youth.... but Lowry won't add 10 wins. A couple maybe.

-A rookie center covering up for Bargnani defensively.
This one won't be pretty.
Valanciunas is not ready. He'll score some on P&R. He'll block a couple shots. But there'll be a lot of defensive mistakes, fouls, bad positioning.
He'll have great future as a defender. But he will not be ready defensively next year.

-T-Ross being a great defender+shot creator.
People sometimes don't realize how atrocious is DeRozan. He has no defensive IQ. And he can't create his shot. The coach ended up using washed up vets at 3 just because they could cover some of DeRozan's mistakes.
Does T-Ross fix that? Unlikely.

So as I said, I think they are in the 5-8 range in the draft.

In the East, I think the Heat, Chicago, Pacers, 76ers, Nets,Knicks, Celts, Cavs, Hawks, Wizards, Bucks and Pistons will all be better.
All those teams either improved, or didn't downgrade enough to be worse than the Raptors.
That's 12 teams already. Which leaves the Bobcats and Orlando. And Orlando depends on who they get/keep.

Even if we consider injuries/chemistry issues/intentional tanking or whatever, which happens every year and kills some teams, and still I don't see the Raptors finishing higher than 10th in that conference.

You should feel very well about that pick.
 
Nimo is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:47 PM   #15
Nimo
Member
Nimo is Patrick Beverley -- showing a lot of promise
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 831
Member: #51693
    Reply With Quote
Wouldn't it be funny if the Raptors pick ends up being a #14 pick next year?

Ok, not funny as in "haha funny" but funny as in "clutchfans.net crashes with too many angry posts funny."

__________________
"The thing about smart people is that they seem crazy to dumb people"
 
DonatasFanboy is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:49 PM   #16
DonatasFanboy
Member
DonatasFanboy is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDonatasFanboy is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDonatasFanboy is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDonatasFanboy is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDonatasFanboy is James Harden -- racking up the points
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 8,778
Member: #50323
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by sew View Post
Fields is arguably their worst starter.
Fields won't be their starter (I'd expect?). DeRozan/T-Ross will.

If Fields is the starter, it means their coach (Casey) got green light to sit down DeRozan.

It makes sense from basketball perspective, tbh (smart>high jumping for Casey's defense), but I doubt they'd go ahead and give up on DeRozan like that.
 
Nook is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:52 PM   #17
Nook
Member
Nook is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemNook is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemNook is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemNook is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemNook is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemNook is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemNook is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemNook is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemNook is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite HakeemNook is Yao Ming -- damn good but not quite Hakeem
Since: Jun 2008
Posts: 9,218
Member: #32535
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by anchel View Post
- Bargnani believe it or not really was playing GREAT last season.
You are a good poster, but Bargnani really wasn't any better last year. He scored 20 points a game but he took a lot of shots, did not go to the line often, rebounded poorly and defended poorly.
 
TexAg713 is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:52 PM   #18
TexAg713
Member
TexAg713 is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously goodTexAg713 is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously good
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 772
Member: #45809
    Reply With Quote
The best outcome of this pick is for the Raptors to make the playoffs for a few years then fail miserably when the top-3/2/1 protections wear off and win the lottery. Until that time, you should root for the Raptors to make the playoffs, because I have a feeling they won't be that terrible. The last thing we want is for Toronto to barely miss the playoffs and end up with a 13th or 14th pick in the draft. That is, unless we ship the pick off Orlando because then we could care less.

I wonder how Houston projects what Dallas' standing will be come 2018 when their pick becomes fully unprotected. I don't see them returning to top-10 in the standings for some time, so in all likelihood it will be deferred for some time. Dirk will be long gone by then and they'll be a few years into their rebuild. Would be awesome if they were to hit rock bottom that year.
 
sew is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:54 PM   #19
sew
Member
sew is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously goodsew is Jeremy Lin -- starting to get dangerously good
Since: Apr 2009
Posts: 2,300
Member: #40017
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonatasFanboy View Post
Fields won't be their starter (I'd expect?). DeRozan/T-Ross will.

If Fields is the starter, it means their coach (Casey) got green light to sit down DeRozan.

It makes sense from basketball perspective, tbh (smart>high jumping for Casey's defense), but I doubt they'd go ahead and give up on DeRozan like that.
True, I was basing that off of the OP's projected starting line-up.

__________________
Before I walked through life, now I frolic.
 
DAROckets is offline Old 07-24-2012, 03:54 PM   #20
DAROckets
Contributing Member
DAROckets is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDAROckets is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDAROckets is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDAROckets is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDAROckets is James Harden -- racking up the pointsDAROckets is James Harden -- racking up the points
Since: May 1999
Posts: 3,996
Member: #479
    Reply With Quote
Quote:
Originally Posted by sew View Post
Fields is arguably their worst starter.
Young team with new and unproven pieces and will have growing pains.It will take time to develop chemistry,if they even do.Sure an injury could drop them,but you can't use that in evaluating a pick.

I'm gonna say anywhere from 8-14 with most likely 10-12.

So early thoughts are that this is a weak draft .. I guess it all depends on how well your team is at evaluating talent,value may not really be known for a few years.

I do think many here have over value this pick.Niece piece in an overall package but when looked at alone,not so much

__________________
The Beard has Appeared
 

Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
[ESPN] Raptors shopping pick for forward HMMMHMM NBA Dish 24 06-06-2012 10:41 PM
With the 1st Pick the Toronto Raptors Select..... Lil Pun 2014 NBA Draft 49 05-25-2006 11:10 PM
Raptors To Trade Lottery Pick? RioGrando 2014 NBA Draft 16 04-05-2006 01:22 PM
Surefire Draft Plan (if we get Raptors' Pick) Drexlerfan22 2014 NBA Draft 12 04-09-2002 01:35 AM
Could our #1 pick & Raptors #1 get us Jamal Mashburn? emoreland Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves 3 03-29-2002 05:40 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:52 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.