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Don't Expect Starters: A Historical Look at the 12th,16th and 18th Picks

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Drewdog, Jul 5, 2012.

  1. Drewdog

    Drewdog Contributing Member

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    I've been doing a little research on our picks from this years draft, and I hate to be the bearer of bad news for everyone, but it don't look pretty.

    I looked back 20 years at all the players drafted in the 12, 16 and 18 slots and if the percentage of games started was over 50%, I included them as a "starter". Out of the 60 total picks from 1992-2011 I found out the following:

    #12 Pick: 3 starters (15%) - George Lynch, Jason Thompson and Gerald Henderson

    #16 Pick: 3 starters (15%) - Brevin Knight, Ron Artest and Hedo Turkoglu

    #18 Pick: 8 Starters (40%) - Theo Ratliff, James Posey, Quentin Richardson, Jason Collins, David West, Marco Belinelli, Ty Lawson and Chris Singleton

    OVERALL: The percentage that one of our picks turns into a legit starter in the NBA.... 23.3%

    Some of those "Starters" are being generous - particularly over the past 5 drafts. Some are starting on bad teams. Others haven't logged enough years in the NBA to solidify themselves as starters, but were included for the sake of consistency.

    This isn't an exact science as there are always players who slip for whatever reason, but for me, it put things in perspective. In a nutshell, I don't think it makes sense to get all excited about these guys being big time starters for the Rockets (include Marcus Morris and Pat Patterson for that matter).
     
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  2. smr6

    smr6 Member

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    Defying the odds on all of them! All will be hall of famers!

    *Takes off rose colored glasses*
     
  3. RV6

    RV6 Contributing Member

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    very deep draft, at least one player went too high, more like 2....so, really you should be looking at the 10th, 14th, and 16th picks.....Might even be closer to 9/13/15
     
  4. morpheus133

    morpheus133 Member

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    You should really look at all players picked 12-18. Exactly what quality of player is available at each pick varies alot from year to year, and some GM's 18th pick would be another's top 10 and vice versa. Even a year can change things drastically as with Perry Jones III who was considered by some here a player worth tanking for and then fell to 28 this year.
     
  5. That Boi Oz

    That Boi Oz Member

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    Kobe Bryant went 13th when he was drafted.....there still HOPE bebe!
     
  6. Naija Texan

    Naija Texan Member

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    Only one that could come close to starting soon would be Lamb, thanks to the uncertain body and ego of Kevin Martin.

    White and Jones will have to claw their way over a number of other bodies in order to get the chance at playing time let alone starting.
     
  7. rn_xw

    rn_xw Member

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    Should've trade all these 3 picks for 25 second round picks.

    Morey's drafting skill will make sure we'd land at least 12 starters and 3 legit backups. Sign them for 4 year rookie deal that pays 900k a year, trade/cut all current starters, we have a deep team of 15 rookies!
     
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  8. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    This research has been done a lot more in-depth:

    http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

    First, using pick #'s is kind of a silly idea because #12 seems to be snakebitten compared to 13 and 11...odds are that at least 1 of those guys becomes a solid starter.

    Basically you have to look at bands - the top 5 is generally a good place to be, @6-20 you have favorable odds of grabbing some sort of contributor more often than not....outside of that it's completely random but your chances are low and the bust rate is high.

    EDIT - you also have a bit of probability math fail.

    DId you just add 15 to 15 to 40 & divide by three? What you want to do is take the chances of somebody NOT becoming a starter and multiply it by each other. So 85% * 85% * 60* = 43.3.

    The chances that NONE of the three will become a starter using your numbers is 43%.

    The chances that ONE or MORE will become a starter is then about 57%
     
    #8 SamFisher, Jul 5, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2012
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  9. MghtyPtrck

    MghtyPtrck Member

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  10. Ericonomist

    Ericonomist Member

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    have you ever taken a probability course in college?

    the correct probability that one of our picks turns into a legit starter is 1-(0.85*0.85*0.6)=0.5665=56.65%
     
  11. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    so you're sayin' there's a channceee
     
  12. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    On this crappy team? Throw the numbers out the window, one of them is starting.
     
  13. acsorelle4

    acsorelle4 Member

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    So you're saying that out of 14 players we get 3 NBA champions, multiple all-star appearances, several NCAA champions, and other standouts with multiple professional and collegiate accolades? Not bad.
     
  14. rocketman84

    rocketman84 Member

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    College is for chumps

    signed: Kobe Bryant
     
  15. Drewdog

    Drewdog Contributing Member

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    Ok, ok I see the probability issue with my equation. I guess I should have said. For each individual player (pick), they have a 23.3% chance of being a starter.
     
  16. thetatomatis

    thetatomatis Member

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    Yeah I expect one starter out of 3 draft picks if Morey is supposed to be good at his job.
     
  17. fleecysphere

    fleecysphere Member

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    Unfortunately a lot of people high on these guys don't know they're looking at them through rose-colored glasses.
     
  18. DieHard Rocket

    DieHard Rocket Contributing Member

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    Using the specific pick number is flawed analysis. It should be pick 12 or later, pick 16 or later, and pick 18 or later...
     
  19. thetatomatis

    thetatomatis Member

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    Nope. Lamb is the one guy I had as unreachable because he should have been drafted higher. I did not figure on reaches for Dion Waiters and Ross to push him back. Even Austin Rivers is not a true SG size with a good reach and athleticism as a natural SG like Lamb is. So Jeremy Lamb was viewed as one of my dream scenarios that played out for us. Although he is not a given to be a starter if he cant play defense. He has huge potential in my eyes. Before we drafted him.
     

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