[QUESTION] Why do the Rockets believe they can 'convince' Dwight Howard?

[BEAT LA]

I don't believe they can unless the Rockets convince Williams to sign here during free agency. There is a:

10% chance the Rockets get Dwight (1% after Thursday night)
20% chance the Rockets can convince Williams to sign here (0% if no Dwight)
60% chance of Dwight re-signing if Williams signs here.
5% chance they convince Howard to re-sign if they somehow manage to land a healthy Gordon or Josh Smith without giving up much.
5% chance they can trade him for more at the trade deadline than they gave up on draft night (why would someone pay more after 3/5 of the season is over?).

The chances are stacked against the Rockets being successful. I expect to hear both players won't re-sign/sign here because both Williams and Howard want max dollars in NJ. That possibility won't be off the table until the trade deadline as long as the Nets re-sign Brook Lopez. I think there is a good chance that if we trade for Dwight then we will end up with Brook Lopez for everything we gave up for Dwight. He will get just enough in free agency to where they HAVE to trade him to land Howard.

[trueroxfan]

Get it done.

What's the worst that happens?
Dwight leaves. We suck balls one year. High draft pick. We begin drafting all our roll players which we know how to do very very well.

On the other hand, he stays. We get to utilize the remaining productive years of Luis Scola and finally get Kmart a consistent inside presence to work off of.
With the addition of an exciting point guard and some promising youth, we could have a very very strong season next year. Hopefully this, coupled with the pressure from Yao and Hakeem, will keep him in Houston.

I don't see us getting DWill. Seems like he is determined to return home, and as much as I hate Dallas, I am kinda glad he gets the opportunity to do that. Not many people actually fulfill that dream. Doesn't it help our draft pick too? It's top 20 protected till 2017 I think. So they get Dwill and are really good for 3 or 4 years, then Dirk retires and maybe JUST maybe, that lines up perfectly with our draft pick.


I tell you people, the future looks bright, with or without Dwight Howard. I am excited about the possibility of a big roster shake up.

[Rocketman95]

Originally Posted by MadMax Point him to the economics of the labor agreement that means he'll be walking away from an assload of money if he signs somewhere else.

This. Unless the team is just absolutely terrible, this is going to be the deciding factor.

[JayZ750]

Originally Posted by DonnyMost I'm more a believer in that happening than I am a believer that we can win in the next 3+ years any other way.

Yes and no.

The comparison to make isn't with Dwight versus what we have now.

Instead, it's something like:

Option A:
-At least 4 first round picks (presumably a top 6 pick, 14, 16, 18)
-Current roster, except maybe Lowry (maybe PPat too, who knows... whatever we need to trade to get that top 6 pick).

Option B:
-Current roster less Lowry, Martin, maybe Scola and fill-in. Maybe PPat as above, maybe DMo, etc.
-No first round picks.
-Plus Dwight
- Cap room for other free agents? Will they come?

BOTH options are a massive improvement over what we have currently, even if the on court record doesn't prove that out, because as you note it's a huge step in a different direction.

But Option A in and of itself is a GREAT option.

[IzakDavid13]

Originally Posted by DonnyMost 57+ million dollars; and a year is a long time for somebody to sit around and be miserable. Chances of him softening up and liking it here are far greater than the chances of us being able to draft a guy like him.

This is why...

[brantonli24]

Originally Posted by DonnyMost 57+ million dollars; and a year is a long time for somebody to sit around and be miserable. Chances of him softening up and liking it here are far greater than the chances of us being able to draft a guy like him.

Ok right I didn't know about that bit. that's a crap ton of money, hopefully enough to change Howard's mind...

[kjayp]

Even if he realizes the financial ramifications... so what.
A) The guys gonna make more money than he canspend in a lifetime...
B) He'll sign the fat extension - and then bitch n bellyache that he wants to be traded - and pick the destination!

I know what a unique talent Dwight Howard is... I also see what a spoiled diva headcase he is.... I don't want the futre of this team dictated by the mental status of this nutjob - pass!
Also not interested in Pau....
Josh Smith or Derrick Willliams, Drummond or Melo, a first rd sg or pg (Lamb, Rivers, Teague...), resign Dragic, CLee and Camby, bring over DMo and build this team with a cast of young talent - not one spoiled malcontent.

[leroy]

Originally Posted by bloodwings19 1) NYC is not big enough for J.Lin, JLo, Yankees, Melo, Amare and Deron

Yes, it is.

2) Rockets in Morey's tenure has consistently try to improve the team with free-agents

Yet, constant failure.

3) Direct link to Asia, enormous fanbase and sponsors

I'm fairly certain Yao no longer plays for the Rockets. There might be a contingent of fans left, but not the "direct link" to Asia there used to be...certainly no more than he could get playing in New York.

4) Play for HOF Kevin McHale

That, I could agree on...but not enough. It might take some prodding from Hakeem to throw in some free sessions.

5) Play for Les who will love Dwight more than any owners

Why would that be?

6) Rusty Hardin will defend you like no other

Very true.

[Carl Herrera]

What free agency options does Dwight Howard have in 2013? Which team will be (a) $20 million under the cap AND (b) be in a better position to compete than the Rockets will be at that time?

There is also the whole "leaving extra year/% raise behind angle." Dwight will be 27 year old come December. A 4-year contract will make him a free agent again at age 31. Now, that's not too old, particularly for a center. But there are no assurances especially with his back and his reliance on athleticism that he'll still be a max player come 2017.

Deron Williams, who just turned 28 yesterday, is dealing with the same issue: If you give up an extra year to enter free agency in your early 30s, what risks are you taking $ wise? It will be interesting to see whether Deron chooses money over better supporting cast.

[zcity]

one word . . . .Treasures

[Rip Van Rocket]

Originally Posted by clos4life Exactly! The worst that could happen is he walks. Then we S&T to team he desires and move on to our tanking/rebuilding job.

I think the worst that could happen is that we trade away all our draft picks and assets to acquire him, and then his gimpy back acts up to the point that we can't get anything for him in a sign and trade. I think it is a very real possibility.

[TheRealist137]

Rockets fans sound like Cleveland fans in 2010, thinking there is no way LeBron will leave $$$ on the table, except we don't even have Dwight yet, and Houston isn't Dwight's hometown team like the Cavs were to LeBron. You guys are delusional.

Did the new CBA ban player options? Because Bron signed a contract with a player option after year 3, he can easily opt out (probably will) and re-up for a max deal. Any team will be happy to give Dwight and Deron player options.

[JayZ750]

Originally Posted by TheRealist137 Rockets fans sound like Cleveland fans in 2010, thinking there is no way LeBron will leave $$$ on the table, except we don't even have Dwight yet, and Houston isn't Dwight's hometown team like the Cavs were to LeBron. You guys are delusional. Did the new CBA ban player options? Because Bron signed a contract with a player option after year 3, he can easily opt out (probably will) and re-up for a max deal. Any team will be happy to give Dwight and Deron player options.

Even further, couldn't Dwight just sign with Brooklyn for 1 year and then reup for a max deal with bird rights after that? Maybe not... maybe you need some longevity to get bird rights... i'm not cap expert there?

But the injury risk!! Sure, it's there. But he can likely get insurance to cover catastrophic injury. And a "minor" injury is unlikely to impact a team's willingness to sign him to a max deal - he would get one today despite the back surgery.

[coachbadlee]

Sources: Dwight Howards "back" does not want to play for Houston!

Been hearing it all morning.

[rocketjunkie]

Originally Posted by TheRealist137 Rockets fans sound like Cleveland fans in 2010, thinking there is no way LeBron will leave $$$ on the table, except we don't even have Dwight yet, and Houston isn't Dwight's hometown team like the Cavs were to LeBron. You guys are delusional. Did the new CBA ban player options? Because Bron signed a contract with a player option after year 3, he can easily opt out (probably will) and re-up for a max deal. Any team will be happy to give Dwight and Deron player options.

Lebron was younger when he signed the 3-year with opt out (and the opt out was at his discretion). Also Dwight just had back surgery so he may be less inclined to take a risk. And when Lebron left Cleveland he maybe took a $1m payout once taxes were factored in, not a possible $57m paycut. That's a lot even for a multi-millionaire.

[DonnyMost]

Originally Posted by TheRealist137 Rockets fans sound like Cleveland fans in 2010, thinking there is no way LeBron will leave $$$ on the table, except we don't even have Dwight yet, and Houston isn't Dwight's hometown team like the Cavs were to LeBron. You guys are delusional.

Lebron's deal happened before the new CBA, so he wasn't leaving as much money on the table going to Miami, IIRC.

[Mariachi ROCKET]

Lets name a pizza after him or a Taco just like Buffalo New York did for Mario Williams. Make him feel loved and wanted.

[TEXNIFICENT]

Originally Posted by DonnyMost That's fine. Let him. It won't be hard to flip him for something decent. Either way, we take the franchise in a new direction... FINALLY. I'm more a believer in that happening than I am a believer that we can win in the next 3+ years any other way.

Homerun. I agree 10,000%

[juicystream]

How many players have come to Houston and hated it here? Houston doesn't suck.

And as others have mentioned, Howard would be leaving a lot of money on the table and the worst case scenario is he leaves, and we finally have that team bad enough to get the in top 5 of the draft.

[mike_lu]

Originally Posted by rocketjunkie Because under the new CBA Dwight would lose $25-30m if he walks away from the Rockets without a sign and trade, and it might cost him upwards of $50m over the life of his career depending on circumstances. Rockets don't believe he will do that when push comes to shove. Otherwise, if he was going to Nets he should have opted out last year and would be able to sign with Nets now. He is trying to get traded there so he can still get paid the last guaranteed year.

The last part is so true. Howard is the one that screwed this teaming-up-with-DWill-in-Brooklyn deal up. If he did not opt in, he could have signed as free agent for less money this off-season after playing half-year rental for the Rockets. Basically, if he wasn't willing to stay in Houston long-term and didn't care about the money, the best move would've been to come here last year as a rental and be a free agent the same time as DWill.

Instead, he opted in with the hope of getting paid in a sign and trade deal to Brooklyn. So if he wasn't willing to forfeit that money the first time around, would he be willing to forfeit it the second time around (especially after back surgery)?