Rob Hennigan and What His Hiring Means to Dwight Howard Trade

[Carl Herrera]

Been thinking quite a bit about what's going on in Orlando and what it means to the Rockets' effort to acquire (rent) Dwight Howard.

First, the news, in case you missed it, is that Orlando Magic has hired 30-year-old Rob Hennigan, formerly assistant GM of the Oklahoma City Thunder, as their new GM, replacing Otis Smith. It was also reported today that the Magic have fired long-time assistant GM Dave Twardzik and six scouts just a few days before than NBA draft. (http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/...t-rob-hennigan)


Not exactly sure what it means, but my theory is that Orlando will be going "new school" and doing things very differently than they way they've done things. It was reported back at the trade deadline that 85-year-old owner Rich DeVos didn't want to let Dwight leave and didn't want to tank even if he leaves (i.e. he'd rather have NBA-ready vets in retured), but it seems that DeVos (or maybe his family) may have changed their mind on both fronts. Hiring an OKC assistant GM and totally cleaning house with your front office staff perhaps means they are trying to build things "the OKC way"? No more trying to patch thing up like they did with Rony Seikaly when Shaq departed?

If they are trying to rebuild the OKC way, the best thing for them to do is trade Howard for the best draft pick(s) they can get before the upcoming draft, so you can start putting his own stamp on the roster right away (kind of like how OKC (then Seattle) traded Ray Allen for a 5th overall pick). Also, they will want to obtain salary flexibility as soon as they can-- not for the purpose of chasing expensive FAs, but rather to eat salary from other teams to get additional draft picks and young talent (how OKC acquired Eric Maynor and Serge Ibaka).


Assuming the above is correct, what this means about Dwight's future location?

First, it means that the Nets looks to be in an even worse position than before. Their two big trade chips are Marshon Brooks and Brook Lopez. Leaving aside questions about Lopez's game (lack of rebounding), the one big issue is that he's a free agent and is most likely going to be quite expensive. Also, the Nets won't be able to give Orlando a first round pick (thanks to the Gerald Wallace trade) until 2013, and all that they are able to give are the Rockets' lotto protected pick and the Net's own pick (which will be crap if they have both Howard and Deron Williams).


Second, failing Brooklyn, I wonder if Dwight Howard will relent on his stance about not signing an extension with the Lakers. They don't have any draft pick to trade, but Andrew Bynum is pretty valuable. I also wonder whether Hennigan loves Bynum's game (and health history) and whether he'd prefer some package of draft picks to even Bynum (who will likely keep Orlando from tanking next season).


Third (and probably most important for us here), a trade that has Houston using Lowry to obtain the highest lotto pick that it can obtain and, before draft night, flip that pick (along with other draft pick(s) and maybe low-cost players) to Orlando would seem to fit perfectly into an "OKC style" rebuilding job.

I did a little math on the following hypothetical trade:

Orlando sends Dwight Howard to Houston
Houston sends Lowry + 14th pick to SAC.
SAC sends the 5th overall pick to Orlando
Houston sends the 16th pick to, Sam Dalembert and Diamon Simpson (contract fillers) to Orlando.
Orlando sends Chris Duhon to SAC.


This will have Orlando trading Howard and Duhon for the 5th pick, the 16th pick and 3 contract fillers that, together, are guaranteed $1.5 million. This will save Orlando roughly $16 million in salary for the upcoming year and, more to the point leaving them $5.7 million under the salary cap right away-- and as much as $11.8 million under if they waive JJ Redick, whose contract is not guaranteed. The season after next, they'll only have $29 million or so in guaranteed salary.

Calculation below:

Name	Notes	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16
Dwight Howard	Traded to HOU
Hidayet Turkoglu	Waived in 2013	$11,015,850	$11,815,850	$6,000,000
Jameer Nelson	Player Option	$8,600,000	$8,600,000
J.J. Redick	Non-Guaranteed	$6,750,000	$6,190,000
Glen Davis		$6,300,000	$6,400,000	$6,400,000	$6,600,000
Jason Richardson		$5,395,000	$5,799,625	$6,204,250	$6,601,125
Chris Duhon	Traded to SAC
Quentin Richardson		$2,446,200	$2,627,400	$2,808,600
Ryan Anderson		$2,244,601
Earl Clark	Player Option	$1,160,000	$1,240,000
Daniel Orton		$1,105,560
Von Wafer	Waived:Non-Guaranteed	$1,069,509
Ish Smith		$522,472
Larry Hughes**		$479,806
Justin Harper		$473,604	$762,195	$1,059,293
DeAndre Liggins		$473,604	$962,195
5th	120% scale		$3,374,640	$3,526,440	$3,678,360	$4,660,482
16th pick	120% scale		$1,645,440	$1,719,480	$1,793,520	$2,751,260
19th pick	120% scale		$1,418,160	$1,482,000	$1,545,840	$2,380,594
Diamon Simpson	Waived	$473,604
Samuel Dalembert	Waived	$7,000,000	$1,500,000
SUM		$55,509,810	$52,335,505	$29,200,063	$20,218,845	$9,792,336
# of Players		16	12	7	5	3
$ below $58.04 mil Cap		$2,530,190	$5,704,495	$28,839,937	$37,821,155	$48,247,664

Houston, on the other hand, will be in pretty decent shape and can even have up to $10 million or so in cap room at the start of the free agency period if they are to trade Kevin Martin for only a draft pick in return (say, to Minny for the 18th pick, and then pay a team like Toronto to eat the small guaranteed salary of Webster and Brad Miller).

Here's how the salary situation might look with the above trades:

Name	Notes	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16
Kevin Martin	Traded to MIN
Courtney Fortson	Waived	$473,604
Diamon Simpson	Traded to ORL
Dwight Howard	Acquired by Trade	$18,091,770	$19,536,360
Courtney Lee	Cap Hold	$2,225,093	$5,560,000
Goran Dragic	Cap Hold	$2,108,000	$4,010,000
Patrick Patterson		$1,959,960	$2,096,760	$3,105,302
Samuel Dalembert	Traded to ORL
Donatas Motiejunas	Cap Hold		$1,134,500	$1,422,720	$1,483,920	$2,288,205
Chandler Parsons		$850,000	$888,250	$926,500	$964,750
Chase Budinger		$854,389	$885,120
Diamon Simpson	Traded
Greg Smith		$473,604	$762,195	$854,389
Derek Fisher	Waived	$3,400,000	$644,005
Luis Scola		$8,591,793	$9,408,207	$10,224,622	$11,041,037
Kyle Lowry	Traded to SAC
Marcus Morris		$1,823,280	$1,905,360	$1,987,320
Marcus Camby	Renounced	$11,071,500
Earl Boykins	Renounced	$762,195
14th Pick	Traded to SAC
16th Pick	Traded to ORL
18th Pick	Cap Hold/Acquired form MIN		$1,237,500	$1,551,840	$1,618,680	$2,489,530
SUM	Add Lee/Dragic	$52,685,188	$48,068,257	$20,072,693	$15,108,387	$4,777,734
# of Players		13	11	7	4	2
$ below $58.04 mil Cap		$5,354,812	$9,971,743	$37,967,307	$42,931,613	$53,262,266

[DaDakota]

Great thread, why do we owe Fisher anything, I thought he accepted a zero buyout.

DD

[chow_yun_fat]

Giving up way too much for a 1 year rental, not worth it.

[acshen]

Originally Posted by DaDakota Great thread, why do we owe Fisher anything, I thought he accepted a zero buyout. DD

There is still a minor cap impact IIRC

[Moonscope]

Your thoughts are very good and just may happen. You may find Patterson and Morris included to Orlando as well.

Tell me more about the Martin to MIN trade. How can we just dump his contract like that? Isn't he worth getting something more in return?

[Carl Herrera]

Originally Posted by DaDakota Great thread, why do we owe Fisher anything, I thought he accepted a zero buyout. DD

Obscure cap rules that Bima pointed out back at the time of Fisher's buyout-- a portion of the buyout we paid him this season gets attributed to next season. Not that it matters that much anyway. If the Rockets need $640K more in cap room, they can easily find a way to create it.

[ROXTXIA]

NOOOOOOOOOOOO to Dwight Howard.

No no no no.

[Carl Herrera]

Originally Posted by chow_yun_fat Giving up way too much for a 1 year rental, not worth it.

One thing to note from the Rockets salary table posted above: If Dwight Howard leaves, the Rockets can have a ton of cap room as long as they don't spend stupid money this year. Lets say the pay Lee and Dragic a combine $14 million (however you split it) and other FAs $10 milion, it'll still leave them with only about $44 million in salary for 2013-- or probably more than $14 million in cap room (which is enough to go after a big time FA in the 2013 class or to be used to make favorable trades).

Basically, the salary situation is that, even if Dwight Howard leaves after 1 year, the Rockets will be in a pretty decent position to move forward.

Think about it, all you really give up are a redundant PG (who is really good, but fairly expendable if Dragic returns) and a couple of mid first rounders.

[Carl Herrera]

Originally Posted by Moonscope Your thoughts are very good and just may happen. You may find Patterson and Morris included to Orlando as well. Tell me more about the Martin to MIN trade. How can we just dump his contract like that? Isn't he worth getting something more in return?

Minnesota has 2 guys who each makes around $5 million this year but with very little $ guaranteed (together around $1.4 million) next season: Martell Webster and Brad Miller. You can trade Martin for the two of them plus a draft pick in return. You can then send the two of them to a team with enough cap room (like Toronto or SAC) plus $3 million cash. Toronto or SAC can then waive these guys, pay them $1.4 milion and make a $1.6 million profit in the deal.

[acshen]

Here's my absolute dream scenario (reposted from the random trade thread)

Houston in: Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Chris Duhon, Ish Smith
Houston out: Lowry, Martin, Scola, Dragic, Dalembert, 14, 16, Dallas pick

Sacramento in: Lowry, 14, Dallas pick
Sacramento out: 5

Orlando in: 5, 16, Martin, Dalembert
Orlando out: Dwight Howard, Chris Duhon, Ish Smith

Lakers out: Pau Gasol
Lakers in: Deron Williams

Nets out: Deron Williams
Nets in: Luis Scola, Goran Dragic

Duhon/Smith
Lee
Parsons/Budinger
Gasol/Patterson
Howard/Motiejunas

Gasol would give Howard a reason to stay. This team would be so nasty defensively.

[cod]

Originally Posted by acshen Here's my absolute dream scenario (reposted from the random trade thread) Houston in: Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Chris Duhon, Ish Smith Houston out: Lowry, Martin, Scola, Dragic, Dalembert, 14, 16, Dallas pick Sacramento in: Lowry, 14, Dallas pick Sacramento out: 5 Orlando in: 5, 16, Martin, Dalembert Orlando out: Dwight Howard, Chris Duhon, Ish Smith Lakers out: Pau Gasol Lakers in: Deron Williams Nets out: Deron Williams Nets in: Luis Scola, Goran Dragic Duhon/Smith Lee Parsons/Budinger Gasol/Patterson Howard/Motiejunas Gasol would give Howard a reason to stay. This team would be so nasty defensively.

No need to keep on reposting this in various threads cause it's terrible.

[acshen]

Originally Posted by cod No need to keep on reposting this in various threads cause it's terrible.

aite thanks bro

[jopatmc]

Originally Posted by Carl Herrera One thing to note from the Rockets salary table posted above: If Dwight Howard leaves, the Rockets can have a ton of cap room as long as they don't spend stupid money this year. Lets say the pay Lee and Dragic a combine $14 million (however you split it) and other FAs $10 milion, it'll still leave them with only about $44 million in salary for 2013-- or probably more than $14 million in cap room (which is enough to go after a big time FA in the 2013 class or to be used to make favorable trades). Basically, the salary situation is that, even if Dwight Howard leaves after 1 year, the Rockets will be in a pretty decent position to move forward. Think about it, all you really give up are a redundant PG (who is really good, but fairly expendable if Dragic returns) and a couple of mid first rounders.

Carl,

if we actually get Dwight here, I suspect we won't wait until he walks. We'll get a decision on an extension from him by the deadline. And if we don't get him to agree, then we will send him to the Nets for whatever talent we can muster from them (Brooks/Lopez/our pick back/etc.).

If we trade for Dwight and DWill re-signs there, then you have the proverbial mexican standoff. I think it would resolve itself by the Nets signing some talent that the Rox would be interested in trading Dwight for if it came down to it.

And that is why I think Morey goes all in on a Dwight trade. Because he can extract himself from Dwight if he wants to at the trade deadline. Or he can continue to push until the end of the season with Dwight, making a playoff run.

There's nothing to risk really.

[Deckard]

You and Bima are really coming up with some strong scenarios. It's kinda scary.

[Moonscope]

Originally Posted by Carl Herrera One thing to note from the Rockets salary table posted above: If Dwight Howard leaves, the Rockets can have a ton of cap room as long as they don't spend stupid money this year. Lets say the pay Lee and Dragic a combine $14 million (however you split it) and other FAs $10 milion, it'll still leave them with only about $44 million in salary for 2013-- or probably more than $14 million in cap room (which is enough to go after a big time FA in the 2013 class or to be used to make favorable trades). Basically, the salary situation is that, even if Dwight Howard leaves after 1 year, the Rockets will be in a pretty decent position to move forward. Think about it, all you really give up are a redundant PG (who is really good, but fairly expendable if Dragic returns) and a couple of mid first rounders.

While I agree with what you are saying, I would hate to spend $14 million on Lee and Dragic. With the changes to the cap rules I think most GMs will start to be more prudent with their player contracts. We all know that Morey never overpays for a player. I think the range of $10-$12 million is probably going to be more like it.

[Moonscope]

Originally Posted by Carl Herrera Minnesota has 2 guys who each makes around $5 million this year but with very little $ guaranteed (together around $1.4 million) next season: Martell Webster and Brad Miller. You can trade Martin for the two of them plus a draft pick in return. You can then send the two of them to a team with enough cap room (like Toronto or SAC) plus $3 million cash. Toronto or SAC can then waive these guys, pay them $1.4 milion and make a $1.6 million profit in the deal.

Didn't Brad Miller retire?

[Moonscope]

Originally Posted by acshen Here's my absolute dream scenario (reposted from the random trade thread) Houston in: Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Chris Duhon, Ish Smith Houston out: Lowry, Martin, Scola, Dragic, Dalembert, 14, 16, Dallas pick Sacramento in: Lowry, 14, Dallas pick Sacramento out: 5 Orlando in: 5, 16, Martin, Dalembert Orlando out: Dwight Howard, Chris Duhon, Ish Smith Lakers out: Pau Gasol Lakers in: Deron Williams Nets out: Deron Williams Nets in: Luis Scola, Goran Dragic Duhon/Smith Lee Parsons/Budinger Gasol/Patterson Howard/Motiejunas Gasol would give Howard a reason to stay. This team would be so nasty defensively.

Ish Smith, Goran Dragic and Deron Williams are all free agents. I doubt they would all agree to something like this.

[dobro1229]

If Dwight was to bolt after one year where does it leave the Rockets?

Exactly where they were before but without 2 or 3 players out of Lowry, Martin, Dalembert that weren't exactly in their longterm plans to begin with.

As long as they dont mortgage the future for him by giving up future quality picks then I dont care. Go for it. Playoff contender for a year, sellout crowds, some excitement, all-star at the all-star game, and a chance to wipe the slate clean with nothing but youth and start off fresh if Dwight bolts. Sounds like a win-win for Clutchfans.

[Moonscope]

In old Unreal Tournament fashion

"Moonscope is DOMINATING!!!!"

Sorry for too many posts in a row.

[JayZ750]

Originally Posted by jopatmc Carl, if we actually get Dwight here, I suspect we won't wait until he walks. We'll get a decision on an extension from him by the deadline. And if we don't get him to agree, then we will send him to the Nets for whatever talent we can muster from them (Brooks/Lopez/our pick back/etc.). If we trade for Dwight and DWill re-signs there, then you have the proverbial mexican standoff. I think it would resolve itself by the Nets signing some talent that the Rox would be interested in trading Dwight for if it came down to it. And that is why I think Morey goes all in on a Dwight trade. Because he can extract himself from Dwight if he wants to at the trade deadline. Or he can continue to push until the end of the season with Dwight, making a playoff run. There's nothing to risk really.

Why would the nets or anyone else give us anything for Dwight at the deadline?
It makes no sense? Sure, lets gut what we do gave for a guy who would sign here anyway....? Um, no. Won't happen.

As for cap space if he walks.... Great. Who we going to sign?