2012 Guess the Lottery Order

[Bearius Jones]

It’s official. The regular season is over…sadness for us Rockets fans. Oh well off into the future for bigger and better things.

I was bored so thought of guessing the lottery selection on which 3 teams would win. So I went through the history of the draft up to 1994 since that is when the 1000 combinations first was used. The categories are Year of Draft, 1st pick, 2nd pick, 3rd pick, and the sum of the picks (to help with my guessing). 2011 as an example had the LA Clippers winning the lottery with the 8th worst record. They had however traded their pick to Cleveland Cavaliers to dump Baron Davis around the trade deadline (foolish decision, should have waited until after the lottery selection to know what pick they had and then trade the pick and him on draft day if it wasn't top 3…my little off topic rant).

Year 1st 2nd 3rd Sum
2011 8 1 6 = 15
2010 5 6 1 = 12
2009 3 6 4 = 13
2008 9 1 3 = 13
2007 7 5 4 = 16
2006 5 2 3 = 10
2005 6 1 5 = 12
2004 1 4 2 = 7 (2 way tie for 4th worst record)
2003 1 6 1 = 8 (2 way tie for worst record)
2002 5 1 1 = 7 (2 way tie for worst record)
2001 3 8 5 = 16
2000 7 4 1 = 12
1999 3 1 13 = 17 (CRAZY! Charlotte Hornets got the 3rd pick with the best record in the lottery...and drafted Baron Davis)
1998 3 4 1 = 8 (2 way tie for 4th worst record)
1997 3 5 2 = 10
1996 2 3 1 = 6
1995 5 1 4 = 10
1994 2 1 2 = 5 (3 way tie for 2nd worst record)
-------------------------------
Sum 78.00 60.00 59.00 = 197.00
Mean 4.33 3.33 3.27 = 10.94

I figured maybe others on the forum would be amused as well. So put the order on which you think the lottery will go, which teams win, and whatever reason why be it NBA conspiracies, you’re own calculations, karma, and/or just your gut feeling. Maybe everyone can put their guesses in their signatures and see who is the closest come lottery selection day.

So what’s your guess?

[Bearius Jones]

I’ll go first.

Year 1st 2nd 3rd Sum
2012 3 7 2 = 12 (2 way tie for 3rd worst record)

My guess is it should go Hornets, Nets, and Wizards.

1st are my “math calculations”. I am alternating high, low, high, low with the picks. So 2010 was 5, 6, 1, 12 and 2011 was 8, 1, 6, 15. So from 2010 to 2011 it went higher, lower, higher. So from 2011 to 2012 I went lower, higher, lower. I know…silliness but like I said…bored.

2nd are my NBA conspiracies. Hornets were bought by a new owner from the NBA that will keep the team in New Orleans. So as a thank you they will give him Anthony Davis. Plus the Hornets have 2 unprotected picks in the lottery no matter what happens which boost their top 3 chances. The Nets pick is top 3 protected and would help them in the Dwight Howard sweepstakes this offseason and resigning Deron Williams. I am sure the NBA wants the Brooklyn Nets to be successful during their move. So no dice for Portland. John Wall can be a big time player but seriously needs a running mate. Either Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Thomas Robinson would significantly boost John Wall’s and the Wizards’ future.

3rd is karma. The Bobcats do not deserve a top 3 pick for the abysmal season they had. The NBA gods will “punish” the ‘Cats by giving them the 4th pick and should give them worse if it were possible. Cleveland just got the number 1 pick last year…though Kyrie Irving and either Anthony Davis, MKG, or Thomas Robinson would be sick but I am sure Bradley Beal or Harrison Barnes will do just fine. The Kings have too much trouble with if they are staying or moving. They need some stability first. The Jazz already have enough top 3 talent and will do fine with Kendall Marshall at number 8 which is the highest pick they can have before giving it back to the Warriors. I am sure this would suck for Warriors fan wanting to keep their pick.

4th is my belly…I mean gut feeling. Records 9-14 have been in the top 3 twice in 18 drafts…a 1st and 3rd pick. I just don’t think this will be the year lightning strikes thrice. Wild card is Raptors. I see no reason not to put them in the top 3 but the 6th worst record was in for last 3 years straight so no go for four in a row is the feeling.

You don’t have to be this detailed but I figured I should show you my reasoning for understanding my madness.

[Carl Herrera]

14-whatever-whatever

[Bearius Jones]

Originally Posted by Carl Herrera 14-whatever-whatever

Yeah that would be fantastic...but the odds are against us.

Time for Stern to make up for the Gasol trade rejection.

[Bearius Jones]

Originally Posted by Bearius Jones Yeah that would be fantastic...but the odds are against us. Time for Stern to make up for the Gasol trade rejection.

Guess he screwed CP3 too...only to still ship him to LA.


I know it's been posted before but still think CP3/Fisher getting facialized is classic.

[Bearius Jones]

I am going to bump my own thread seeing as it was too probably too early to post it. Hopefully this will get the responses I was hoping for the first time.

I guess I have to rethink my first prediction. I think it will be 3-6-2 which is the same three of Hornet, Nets, and Wizards. I suppose the number 6 pick could be in the top 3 four years in a row...just hesitate on it though.

Here is the Pre-Lottery Draft Order
1 Charlotte
2 Washington
3 Cleveland
4 New Orleans
5 Sacramento
6 *Portland (Nets Pick that is Top 3 protected)
7 *Golden St. (Go to Utah if it falls out of top 7)
8 Toronto
9 Detroit
10 *New Orleans (T-wolves pick that is unprotected)
11 Portland
12 Milwaukee
13 Phoenix
14 Houston

[da_juice]

Nets
Hornets (from TWolves)
Bobcats
Washington
Cleveland
Hornets
and so on...

[J.R.]

Why do I get the sense Cleveland or Washington will win the lotto again? O_o

4. Washington/Cleveland(whoever doesn't get #1)
3. New Orleans
2. Charlotte
1. Cleveland/Washington

or

4. Washington/Cleveland(whoever doesn't get #1)
3. Charlotte
2. New Orleans
1. Cleveland/Washington

Charlotte has to be praying they get that #1 pick.

[HMMMHMM]

If Stern were to rig it, the Nets would end up with a top-3 pick. Bobcats would probably still get #1, because they're so brutally bad. Not sure about the 3rd team. Maybe the Bucks.

Rockets at #14 is a lock though.

[Bearius Jones]

Originally Posted by HMMMHMM If Stern were to rig it, the Nets would end up with a top-3 pick. Bobcats would probably still get #1, because they're so brutally bad. Not sure about the 3rd team. Maybe the Bucks. Rockets at #14 is a lock though.

The worst team has only got the number 1 pick twice...LeBron James and Dwight Howard. If Anthony Davis was a potential franchise changer like these two then maybe but I don't think he is viewed as such. Bobcats...don't deserve pick...didn't even try. 4th pick for them.

I agree that the Nets will be top-3 to keep the Russian and Jay-Z appeased with their move across a bridge and more assets to keeping Deron Williams.
Bucks...12th pick is too high to feasibly get in the lottery.

If the commisioner could rig the draft....that is what I should of named this thread....

[dreamshake97]

if we get a top 3 pick i will forever believe the draft lottery is rigged..

BUT.. we all know we are getting #14 AGAIN so might as well brace for reality..

[NewRoxFan]

I will go out on a limb and guess that Golden State gets lucky and jumps into the top three.

[BimaThug]

Conspiracy theorist lottery results:

#1 - New Orleans Hornets (wink-wink to Tom Benson for buying the Hornets from the league)
#2 - New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota) (for Stern to save face from the debacle that was the CP3 trade ordeal)
#3 - Brooklyn Nets (to help facilitate a deal to put Dwight Howard in the New York media market)

Do I actually believe any of that crap? No. But it'll be interesting as hell to hear the theories espoused if anything resembling this result ends up happening.

[Carl Herrera]

I don't know where the "Stern Rigs the Lottery" conspiracy theory comes from.

If Stern actually did rig the lottery, how come the Knicks has not won a single top 3 pick since Patrick Ewing? He certainly had enough opportunities to help the Knicks out in the lotto during the past decade.

[HMMMHMM]

Originally Posted by BimaThug Conspiracy theorist lottery results: #1 - New Orleans Hornets (wink-wink to Tom Benson for buying the Hornets from the league) #2 - New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota) (for Stern to save face from the

Nah. I don't think Stern is that nice. I certainly could see him making sure the Minny pick ends up in the top-3 though, so he ends up looking smart for blocking the Rockets deal.

I did forget about the Hornets when I made my picks, so:

1. Bobcats
2. Nets
3. Hornets (via Minny)

Originally Posted by Carl Herrera I don't know where the "Stern Rigs the Lottery" conspiracy theory comes from.

I don't believe in it, but its kinda fun to think about it, so when it ends up happening the way I predicted it, I can say, see Stern rigged it! I knew it!

[Yung-T]

14 13 12

[Bearius Jones]

Originally Posted by Carl Herrera I don't know where the "Stern Rigs the Lottery" conspiracy theory comes from. If Stern actually did rig the lottery, how come the Knicks has not won a single top 3 pick since Patrick Ewing? He certainly had enough opportunities to help the Knicks out in the lotto during the past decade.

The Knicks were previously good last around 2000-2001. http://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/history/NY
Between then and now they were jokes. I guess Isiah Thomas screwed them up so bad that not even David Stern could save them. Probably mishandled the picks and never were a bottom 5 team.

[vince]

It's statistically not in the Rockets favor to win the lottery's top three picks.

They've beaten the odds before, but for peace of mind, it's the 14th pick for the Rockets this year!!! Let's go just go with that - it will help anyone sleep easier at night.


For the top pick it's actually 4 to 1 odds that it isn't the team with the worst record to win the ping pong balls magic combination. But it should be any of the top 3 worst records to win that magic combination of numbers.


Morey has a lot of assets to make a move. Lottery picks, favorable contracts of talented players, no pressing franchise suffocating albatross contracts hovering over the salary cap. Even though I am not expecting another lottery win, I think there is a lot of room to be optimistic about this summer.

[plutoblue11]

#1 will not go to Charlotte, sorry MJ.

I'm placing my bets on the field, and I think the winner will end up being a slightly better team than Charlotte.

The top 2 picks will be from this group:

New Jersey, New Orleans, Sacramento, Cleveland, Washington or Toronto.


If New Jersey, Sacramento, Cleveland, or Toronto gets that #1 or #2 pick. Things could get interesting on draft night.

[MorningZippo]

Originally Posted by plutoblue11 #1 will not go to Charlotte, sorry MJ. I'm placing my bets on the field, and I think the winner will end up being a slightly better team than Charlotte. The top 2 picks will be from this group: New Jersey, New Orleans, Sacramento, Cleveland, Washington or Toronto. If New Jersey, Sacramento, Cleveland, or Toronto gets that #1 or #2 pick. Things could get interesting on draft night.

Demarcus Cousins + Anthony Davis. That sounds terrifying.