Point guards are interesting. At pretty much every other position, you'll know if a player is going to be a star within his first few years in the league, but there have been a number of star PGs in the past who were late bloomers. Considering that Lowry will be only 25 years old next year, I thought I might look at some other PGs who were good, but not great through their age 24 seasons, and when their breakout year occurred. Because many of these guys started as backups, I used their per-36 minute numbers. Keep in mind, I'm not trying to make the argument that Lowry will turn into one of these guys; three of them are Hall of Famers (or Hall of Fame bound) and the other was a 4-time All-Star. The point I'm making is that despite the fact that many are calling 2010-11 Lowry's breakout season, there's a good chance he still has significant room to grow, which I think is exciting. So without further ado: Code: [B]Kyle Lowry[/B] ([I]Note: I discarded his rookie year, in which he missed all but 10 games due to injury[/I]) <table> <tr> <th>[B]Age[/B]</th> <th>[B]PTS[/B]</th> <th>[B]REB[/B]</th> <th>[B]AST[/B]</th> <th>[B]TOV[/B]</th> <th>[B]FG%[/B]</th> <th>[B]3P%[/B]</th> <th>[B]FT%[/B]</th> <th>[B]PER[/B]</th> </tr> <tr> <td>21</td> <td>13.6</td> <td>4.3</td> <td>5.1</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>.432</td> <td>.257</td> <td>.698</td> <td>14.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>22</td> <td>12.5</td> <td>4.1</td> <td>5.9</td> <td>2.5</td> <td>.435</td> <td>.255</td> <td>.801</td> <td>14.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td>23</td> <td>13.5</td> <td>5.4</td> <td>6.7</td> <td>2.5</td> <td>.397</td> <td>.272</td> <td>.827</td> <td>15.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td>24</td> <td>14.2</td> <td>4.3</td> <td>7.0</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>.426</td> <td>.376</td> <td>.765</td> <td>16.5</td> </tr> </table> [B]1. Steve Nash[/B] ([I]breakout season in [B]bold[/B][/I]) <table> <tr> <th>[B]Age[/B]</th> <th>[B]PTS[/B]</th> <th>[B]REB[/B]</th> <th>[B]AST[/B]</th> <th>[B]TOV[/B]</th> <th>[B]FG%[/B]</th> <th>[B]3P%[/B]</th> <th>[B]FT%[/B]</th> <th>[B]PER[/B]</th> </tr> <tr> <td>22</td> <td>11.2</td> <td>3.3</td> <td>7.3</td> <td>3.3</td> <td>.423</td> <td>.418</td> <td>.824</td> <td>10.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>23</td> <td>14.9</td> <td>3.5</td> <td>5.7</td> <td>2.1</td> <td>.459</td> <td>.415</td> <td>.860</td> <td>15.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>24</td> <td>8.9</td> <td>3.2</td> <td>6.2</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>.363</td> <td>.374</td> <td>.826</td> <td>10.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td>25</td> <td>11.3</td> <td>2.8</td> <td>6.4</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>.477</td> <td>.403</td> <td>.882</td> <td>13.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td>[B]26[/B]</td> <td>[B]16.5[/B]</td> <td>[B]3.4[/B]</td> <td>[B]7.7[/B]</td> <td>[B]3.1[/B]</td> <td>[B].487[/B]</td> <td>[B].406[/B]</td> <td>[B].895[/B]</td> <td>[B]19.6[/B]</td> </tr> </table> [B]Where the Comparison Work:[/B] [I]Like Lowry, Nash spent the early part of his career as a backup. When given a starting job in Dallas, he grabbed the bull by the horns and never looked back, eventually becoming a superstar.[/I] [B]Where the Comparison Fails:[/B] [I]A huge part of what has made Nash such an effective player is his shooting ability, which he demonstrated from Day 1. Though I believe Lowry will continue to improve in this department, I doubt he'll ever reach Nash's level.[/I] [B]2. Gary Payton[/B] ([I]breakout season in [B]bold[/B][/I]) <table> <tr> <th>[B]Age[/B]</th> <th>[B]PTS[/B]</th> <th>[B]REB[/B]</th> <th>[B]AST[/B]</th> <th>[B]TOV[/B]</th> <th>[B]FG%[/B]</th> <th>[B]3P%[/B]</th> <th>[B]FT%[/B]</th> <th>[B]PER[/B]</th> </tr> <tr> <td>22</td> <td>9.4</td> <td>4.3</td> <td>8.5</td> <td>2.9</td> <td>.450</td> <td>.077</td> <td>.711</td> <td>13.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td>23</td> <td>10.8</td> <td>4.2</td> <td>7.1</td> <td>2.5</td> <td>.451</td> <td>.130</td> <td>.669</td> <td>13.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>24</td> <td>15.7</td> <td>4.0</td> <td>5.6</td> <td>2.1</td> <td>.494</td> <td>.206</td> <td>.770</td> <td>17.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>25</td> <td>16.9</td> <td>3.4</td> <td>6.2</td> <td>2.2</td> <td>.504</td> <td>.278</td> <td>.595</td> <td>17.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td>[B]26[/B]</td> <td>[B]20.2[/B]</td> <td>[B]3.4[/B]</td> <td>[B]7.0[/B]</td> <td>[B]2.4[/B]</td> <td>[B].509[/B]</td> <td>[B].302[/B]</td> <td>[B].716[/B]</td> <td>[B]21.3[/B]</td> </tr> </table> [B]Where the Comparison Works:[/B] [I]Unlike Nash and Lowry, Payton was more or less a starter from day one, and a defensive ace from the start. However, he didn't start posting superstar-level numbers until his age-26 season. In addition, one similarity is that Payton game into the league with no 3PT range to speak of, and eventually became a more than respectable shooter.[/I] [B]Where the Comparison Fails:[/B] [I]Payton's assist numbers were likely stifled in his early years do to the fact that he played alongside another great distributor in Nate McMillan. He also possessed superior size and athleticism to Lowry (and everyone else listed here). And though Lowry's a plus defender, if he was going to become the dominant defensive force that Payton was, we'd probably know by now.[/I] [B]3. John Stockton[/B] ([I]breakout season in [B]bold[/B][/I]) <table> <tr> <th>[B]Age[/B]</th> <th>[B]PTS[/B]</th> <th>[B]REB[/B]</th> <th>[B]AST[/B]</th> <th>[B]TOV[/B]</th> <th>[B]FG%[/B]</th> <th>[B]3P%[/B]</th> <th>[B]FT%[/B]</th> <th>[B]PER[/B]</th> </tr> <tr> <td>22</td> <td>11.1</td> <td>2.5</td> <td>10.0</td> <td>3.6</td> <td>.471</td> <td>.182</td> <td>.736</td> <td>13.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td>23</td> <td>11.7</td> <td>3.3</td> <td>11.3</td> <td>3.1</td> <td>.489</td> <td>.133</td> <td>.839</td> <td>17.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>24</td> <td>12.6</td> <td>2.9</td> <td>13.0</td> <td>3.2</td> <td>.499</td> <td>.179</td> <td>.782</td> <td>19.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td>[B]25[/B]</td> <td>[B]15.3[/B]</td> <td>[B]3.0[/B]</td> <td>[B]14.3[/B]</td> <td>[B]3.3[/B]</td> <td>[B].574[/B]</td> <td>[B].358[/B]</td> <td>[B].840[/B]</td> <td>[B]23.2[/B]</td> </tr> </table> [B]Where the Comparison Works:[/B] [I]It doesn't, not really. Because of his inability to effectively shoot the three ball early in his career, the Jazz made Stockton a backup for the first three seasons of his career, and his per-36 minute numbers suggest that this was a mistake. You can only wonder how many assists he would have collected if he had started from day one. I will say that like Payton, Stockton came into the league with virtually no 3PT shot to speak of, and became one of the best shooters ever. So perhaps there's a remote chance that Lowry could turn into an elite shooter, in which case I do think he'd become a perennial all-star.[/I] [B]Where the Comparison Fails:[/B] [I]See above.[/I] [B]4. Mo Cheeks[/B] ([I]breakout season in [B]bold[/B][/I]) <table> <tr> <th>[B]Age[/B]</th> <th>[B]PTS[/B]</th> <th>[B]REB[/B]</th> <th>[B]AST[/B]</th> <th>[B]TOV[/B]</th> <th>[B]FG%[/B]</th> <th>[B]3P%[/B]</th> <th>[B]FT%[/B]</th> <th>[B]PER[/B]</th> </tr> <tr> <td>22</td> <td>10.2</td> <td>3.8</td> <td>6.4</td> <td>2.9</td> <td>.510</td> <td>.000</td> <td>.721</td> <td>12.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td>23</td> <td>12.3</td> <td>3.8</td> <td>7.6</td> <td>3.0</td> <td>.540</td> <td>.444</td> <td>.779</td> <td>15.9</td> </tr> <tr> <td>24</td> <td>11.4</td> <td>3.7</td> <td>8.3</td> <td>2.6</td> <td>.534</td> <td>.375</td> <td>.787</td> <td>16.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td>[B]25[/B]</td> <td>[B]12.7[/B]</td> <td>[B]3.6[/B]</td> <td>[B]9.6[/B]</td> <td>[B]2.7[/B]</td> <td>[B].521[/B]</td> <td>[B].273[/B]</td> <td>[B].777[/B]</td> <td>[B]18.3[/B]</td> </tr> </table> [B]Where the Comparison Works:[/B] [I]I think this may be Lowry's most reasonable comp. Mo Cheeks was a hard-nosed, scrappy 6'1" PG who made four All-Star Teams and was four times named to the All-Defense 1st Team. In his age-25 breakout season he ranked third in the NBA in assists per game and had a low turnover rate, and the next year he made his first All-Star team. I could easily see Lowry putting up that kind of campaign in 2011-12 and having a similar career path.[/I] [B]Where the Comparison Fails:[/B] [I]I actually think Lowry's ceiling is greater than becoming Mo Cheeks 2.0. Though he likely won't be the defender Mo was, he can certainly hold his own in that department, and seems to have greater potential as a scorer if his jumper continues to improve. If Kyle can become the distributor that Cheeks was, I think he'll eventually surpass him. It should be noted that Mo was generally the third or fourth best player on some stacked Sixers teams in the '80s. While I don't think Kyle can be a number one option on a championship level squad, if he continues to improve I could certainly see him as the second best player on a very good team.[/I] EDIT: I was getting into tl;dr territory, so I'll just add here that Sam Cassell and Sleepy Floyd were also sort of late-bloomer types who came to mind for me. In summary, I'd like to again stress that I don't believe it's likely that Lowry will become a hall-of-famer along the lines of three of the guys listed above. What excites me though is the fact that at the age of 24, three of those players listed above were playing at about the same level as Kyle last year, (according to PER). In addition, Kyle's just one year older than Jordan Hill, he's been a solid player since day one in the league, and was an important contributor as an 18-year-old true freshman on a good Villanova Squad in 2004-05. Guys who make an impact early, who already have the fundamentals down at a young age, are often the most likely to become stars. Entering this season, Lowry's the unquestioned starter and leader of this team and he's just now entering his prime. If he can make the leap from 'good PG' to borderline All-Star, not only could it make this team a real surprise in the Western Conference, he would be increasing both his value and likely his teammates' value in potential trades. But that's just my opinion. Input welcome.
I agree 100% I think Lowry is the most underrated player in the NBA. If he was on the Celts he would already be a 2x allstar.
I think the Kyle Lowry now is a better player than the old Kyle Lowry, but boy did I enjoy watching him play more when he was throwing his body into everyone every chance he got, barrelling into people in the lane, and wreaking havoc by drawing contact every play. Now, with his improved shot, he just takes three pointers. Booooring
You know... usually I gloss over these threads. But I wonder how good Lowry can be. His main difficiency when he was drafted was his shooting ability, and he's already raised that skill to above average levels. His midrange game could use some work still. But the reason I'm curious to see how Lowry does the next couple of years is because there ARE a lot of PGs in the league that were just solid for their first 5-6 years and then suddenly took it to another level. Nash comes to mind... Billups comes to mind. Rondo is the guy I like to compare him to. Rondo, if you remember, was picked like in the 20s in the draft he came out in and was one of those young guys that might turn into something. I remember before when KG and Allen were about to get traded to the team, they really wanted to keep Rondo because they thought he would be someone good. And then 3 years later look what happened? Lowry kind of had the same buzz about him. He was a favorite young project player that people wanted to acquire from the Grizzlies. So I'm wondering if he kind of turns out the same way Rondo did. Not HoF quality, but borderline all-star... which would be enough to vault us into the playoffs easy.
Really good thread OP. I expected a simple stats comparison would be the sole basis of your thread, but you actually put some thought into the skills and differences of the various players. I'm really excited about Kyle Lowry, I think his playmaking and bball IQ is extremely underrated. One thing I'm definitely worried about though is unlike those guys in your posts, Lowry has already been injured, a leg injury which sidelined his rookie year, and back spasms, which plagued him last season. The leg injury is probably 100% recovered, but the back spasms might recur later on (see Tmac).
How many point guards are clearly better than Lowry right now? CP3, Rose, D Wil, Nash, Rondo, Westbrook, Parker to me, he's in that next group with Wall, Curry, Holiday. I think his ceiling is Rondo's level as a fringe top 5 PG at his peak. He just doesn't have that super elite court vision of a Paul or incredible athleticism of Rose/Westbrook, or shooting of Nash... Lowry is actually a very well balanced PG that is not elite at any one skill. His "leap" will partly depend on how much respect he gets from the refs in the 50/50 calls. If he can get 3-4 free throws more a game and maintain his current trajectory, then he will fulfill his potential.
Gracias. I think that the injury concerns are valid, but I'm encouraged by the fact that he played much more under control last year as a starter and wasn't throwing his body around with reckless abandon (though, as iconoclastic mentioned, he also wasn't quite as fun to watch). Because he's a short, muscular guy, it's possible he'd be more prone to muscle injuries, pulls and what not, and less likely to suffer from joint and ligament damage, but that's pure speculation from someone without much expertise in anatomy/physiology. Either way, as long as he doesn't have a disc condition that we aren't aware of, I wouldn't be too worried about the back spasms. Sometimes they just flair up randomly.
I'm one of those people who think Rondo is overrated. Rondo's game is opened up by having 3 HOF and all stars next to him. Assists, scoring and everything is much easier for Rondo by having these all-stars. Yet Rondo is still the weak link for the Celtics, his inability to shoot has time and time again caused the defense to easily collapse on players. If we replaced Rondo for Lowry, I have a strong feeling Lowry will thrive much more than Rondo.
Very excited to see how Kyle progresses. I think we have already seen what his ceiling can look like: his performances in March were at an all-star level. The question is if he can maintain that type of form over an extended period of time. I don't think it's realistic to expect him to do that over a whole season (yet anyway), but this season, its reasonable to expect more of what we saw in March and less of what we saw in November.
I think incremental improvements from last year might be enough to make him an all-star. As it stands right now, Paul, Westbrook, and Nash probably get the nod before Kyle does, but I think he's next in line and if one of those guys falls off or gets injured, Number 7 is probably in. It's strange, but looking at those guys, Westbrook is the only one that I'd clearly prefer to Lowry. Nash is quite a bit better on offense but quite a bit worse on defense, and Parker doesn't impress me. Plus, both are old. Paul is a time bomb. I think his knees are going to be a problem the rest of his career, and in retrospect we were very lucky we didn't end up with him. When you consider that Kyle is just entering the prime of his career and delivers great production on a contract less than half that of the other elite PG's in the West, it's hard to see how we could do better, All-Star or not.
You have to count defense in the equation. To me the list of PG's CLEARLY better than Lowry are Paul, Rose, Deron Williams, and Westbrook. Lowry's the one guy on our team with no ceiling really. His floor offensively is probably what he did last year. Sure, the shooting may go down, but the play-making and decision-making will only improve. FT% will undoubtedly go up. It wouldn't surprise me to see his PER range anywhere from 17-21 this coming year.
He is in the very good category to me of PGs, in order to reach that elite status, he has to continue to improve his shooting, everything else he does really well. He does have flaws, lack of quickness laterally, as exposed by Tony Parker in the last game, but he more than makes up for that by his competitive nature. I think he is around top 10 in the league and that is not too shabby.....but I don't expect him to improve much upon last year....would love to be proven wrong again about him though...lol DD
Lowry is a finished product. He's a solid point guard, but he'll never be an all-star. I doubt he improves at all, but if he does, the improvement will be small. More likely, his three point shooting regresses and everything else stays about the same.
A bit late to the party, but welcome aboard, OP. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=198103 I said in another thread somewhere last year that "Lowry > Rondo" will become a generally accepted fact in due time. I think he will get there within the next 2 years. Billups is a good comparison. Others have mentioned Mookie Baylock.
I don't think Flynn or Dragic are starting caliber PGs in this league. Trading Lowry means you're either getting back a great player, or completely giving up on the current team and going into full-blown rebuild mode. I really like the comparisons the OP provided. I think Lowry's improvement may be somewhat hampered by the coaching change, but we'll still see some improvement in parts of his game.
I think Lowry would be better away from Adelman's system, in a system that allows him to control the ball a bit more....at least from a setting teamates up scenario. If he continues to improve his shot, and he was ok at it last year, then he can really take off. DD
