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[ESPN] Free Agent Watch: Class of 2011

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by J.R., Mar 18, 2011.

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J.R. Member

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Carmelo Anthony is officially off the 2011 free-agent market, having quickly signed a $65 million contract extension after being sent to the Knicks at February's trade deadline.

But while Anthony was the name on the marquee, this summer's class runs a lot deeper than Melo. No, there aren't a lot of superstars left -- you will have to wait until the summer of 2012 for that -- but there's talent to be had here ... as long as there's a season to be played, of course.

A potential lockout looms over the NBA, one that could potentially change free agency significantly. On some owners' wish lists for the new collective bargaining agreement are items such as a hard salary cap and new restrictions on player movement. Therefore, while it's easy to put together a list of players who are potential free agents, it's extremely difficult to foretell how free agency will ultimately play out -- even more difficult than usual.

With those points in mind, here's our latest sneak peek at who could be available in 2011:

Group I: Option candidates

Note: These are the players with an early termination option (ETO), player option (PO) or team option (TO) in their contracts, meaning they may or may not become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2011. Some NBA player agents think it's unlikely that most members of this group, among those who have a choice, will actually become free agents. Why? If the new CBA dramatically lowers the salary scale and the guaranteed years free agents can get, they'd be leaving a lot of guaranteed money on the table for the unknown.

Key: player option (PO) | early termination option (ETO) | team option (TO)

1. Tim Duncan, Spurs (ETO)
Duncan has become such a staple with the San Antonio Spurs that no one really expects him to leave. He turns 35 years old in April but remains one of the best big men in the league. He can't keep going like this forever, but I expect he'll get an extension from the Spurs sometime before the end of the season, so he can finish his career in black and silver.

2. Nene Hilario, Nuggets (ETO)
When he's healthy, Hilario remains one of the unique big men in the league. He's quick and physical, and he can be a handful in the paint when he wants to be.

It's hard to say a 28-year-old player who's spent eight-plus seasons in the league still has upside, but Hilario does. If he chooses to terminate his contract, he will leave $11.6 million on the table. But I could see a team giving him as much or even more on the open market next year, even with the CBA likely lowering the max for top players.

3. David West, Hornets (ETO)
There has been talk of West negotiating a contract extension in New Orleans, but under the current rules the Hornets have a salary ceiling for a West extension that might be lower than he can get on the open market. Therefore, the Hornets' power forward, who turns 31 in August, might want to explore the market while his value is high. A number of teams, including the Nets and Pacers, will likely make a run at him.

4. Ray Allen, Celtics (PO)
Allen may turn be turning 36 years old in July but he's still one of the sweetest shooters in the NBA. He's having another terrific year, averaging 17 points per game and shooting a career-best 46.7 percent from behind the arc this season, but don't expect him to bail on Boston anytime soon. He's due $10 million next year and will likely stay put as long as the Celtics are trying to compete for a title.

5. Andre Miller, Blazers (TO)
Miller, 34, can still do two things well: He's one of the best, if not the best, post-up point guards in the league, and he can really throw an alley-oop. He's never been a perfect fit in Portland, and the Blazers have flirted with trading him the last two trade deadlines, but he may be too valuable to just give away. He's owed almost $8 million next year if the Blazers don't exercise his team option, and I think the most likely scenario is that they hang onto him until they can get some sort of value in return.

6. Leandro Barbosa, Raptors (PO)
There's a good chance that Barbosa will pick up his player option this year. He's having a solid season, but the $7.6 million he's due in 2011 is probably a lot more than he could get on the open market.

7. C.J. Miles, Jazz (TO)
Miles is just 24 years old, but it seems like he's been in the league forever. In his sixth season for the Jazz, he looks as if he's turning the corner. He's not going to be a star, but given his age and defensive abilities someone should be willing to pay him more than the Jazz are next season.

8. Boris Diaw, Bobcats (PO)
Diaw is due to make $9 million in 2011, likely much more than he could command in free agency. I doubt we'll see him exercising his player option, given the money he'd be leaving on the table.

9. Mickael Pietrus, Suns (PO)
The 29-year-old defensive stopper has had his moments, but he's mired in the worst season of his career. Some believed the trade that sent him to Phoenix would boost his stats, but he continues to struggle. He's due $5.3 million next season, and if he keeps playing like this it's unlikely he could find that type of money on the open market.

10. Ronny Turiaf, Knicks (PO)
Turiaf has never been much of a box score stuffer, but many thought that could change this season in New York in Mike D'Antoni's system.

Unfortunately, it hasn't been the case. Turiaf has been a solid defensive presence, but his numbers are actually a bit down on the offensive end, which is a rarity on a D'Antoni team.

He turned 28 in January and has been one of the better bargains in the league the past few years. But I'm not sure he's willing to risk the $4.3 million he's owed next season to test the free-agent waters.
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Group II: Restricted free agents

Five players from the 2007 first-round draft class (Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Mike Conley, Joakim Noah and Jared Dudley) signed contract extensions before the Nov. 1 deadline. Most of the rest will be restricted free agents this summer. Typically, restricted free agents struggle to get offer sheets from teams because their original teams can match any offer. But with the whole economic situation in turmoil right now, who knows what restricted free agency will look like next season?

1. Marc Gasol, Grizzlies
Here's one that GM Chris Wallace got right. Wallace believed Gasol would have a bright future when most did not, and in Gasol's first two-and-a-half years with Memphis, he has made good on that potential. Gasol isn't going to be as good as his brother, Pau, but he has become one of the steadiest big men in the game.

The big question now is can the Grizzlies afford him and Zach Randolph? They've shelled out big dollars to Rudy Gay and Conley. They probably can't afford two more such contracts, especially given owner Michael Heisley's miserly tendencies. If the Grizzlies have to pick between the two, they're keeping Gasol.

2. DeAndre Jordan, Clippers
Jordan was once considered a top-10 pick by scouts before a lackluster freshman season at Texas A&M caused him to slide into the second round. Now the 22-year-old big man may be one of the top free agents this summer. While he's still finding an offensive game, he's long, athletic, good on the boards and an excellent shot-blocker. He's in for a huge raise this summer. Will Donald Sterling be willing to pay him?

3. Rodney Stuckey, Pistons
Stuckey continues his steady improvement in Detroit. He appeared to be a steal as the 15th pick in the 2007 draft but hasn't really reached his ceiling. He's still more comfortable as a slasher/scorer than as a point guard, and he hasn't found a consistent stroke from long range. But at this point he's a big part of the future of the Pistons, and I doubt there's any chance they'll let him walk.

4. Jeff Green, Celtics
Green got lost in the shadow of Durant, but he's been solid in his own right in his first three-and-a-half years in the league. Still, the trade that sent him to the Celtics may help his chances of winning a title, but it may not help his market value.

Green was averaging 15 points in 37 minutes per game in OKC, but in five games in Boston he's averaging 10 points in 16 fewer minutes. His shooting percentages are up and he's getting to play around veterans for the first time, but can Green really stand out on a team that already has Kevin Garnett at the 4? The good news for Green is that Danny Ainge didn't give up an asset such as Kendrick Perkins to let him walk. I expect the Celtics will work out something with him.

5. Greg Oden, Blazers
Saying that Oden is a huge question mark is the understatement of the year. Right now, he's making Sam Bowie look like an iron man. He has already had three major surgeries and will have played a total of just 82 games in four seasons.

But when he has played, he's shown signs of stardom. In the 21 games he played in 2009-10, before a broken kneecap ended his season, he was sporting a whopping 23.14 player efficiency rating.

If Oden can ever get healthy -- and it's a huge "if" at this point -- he still has time to become a dominant NBA big man (he just turned 23 years old). But whoever signs him to a contract will do so without having seen him play for more than a year and a half. Is any team, including Portland, willing to take that risk? Right now, it sounds like the Blazers are. We'll see how this intriguing story actually plays out.

6. Thaddeus Young, 76ers
Young continues to tantalize with his combination of versatility and athleticism. He can both the 3 and the 4 but is more comfortable at power forward.

While it's tough to gauge whether he's a potential star, given his supporting role with the team, he'll get a nice offer from someone. The Sixers have some financial woes, which means they may not be able to afford to lock him up. He could join Green as one of the few players on this list that changes uniforms this year.

7. Wilson Chandler, Nuggets
Chandler was having a career season in New York before he was traded to the Nuggets in the Anthony trade. Chandler's numbers are down a bit since the trade, but he continues to improve in virtually every facet of the game. If he could ever become a lights-out shooter, he'd be very tough to stop.

Given all the Nuggets gave up to land him and the way the Nuggets have been playing since the trade, I suspect they'll make Chandler a generous offer this summer to keep him in the fold.

8. Arron Afflalo, Nuggets
After earning a rep as a defensive stopper, Afflalo has put up some impressive offensive numbers this season. While he's not a star, his shooting ability and defensive prowess should earn him a nice raise this summer.

9. Nick Young, Wizards
Talk about terrific timing. After three seasons as a middling prospect, Young has exploded since the Wizards traded Gilbert Arenas and is averaging 18 ppg as a starter.

Young is one dimensional -- he scores and that's about it -- but the league is always looking for guys who can put the ball in the basket. The Wizards are likely to pay him, but if they don't another team will be happy to give him some cash.

10. Aaron Brooks, Suns
The league's reigning most improved player had a breakout season last season, averaging 19.6 points and 5.3 assists. But he has failed to reproduce those numbers this season and lost his starting job to Kyle Lowry. Then, he was traded at the deadline to Phoenix, where he can be the spark off the bench that Barbosa used to be.

Brooks' playing time has decreased significantly in Phoenix, though his shooting percentages have skyrocketed. With Nash possibly on the trade block this summer, the Suns may try to lock Brooks up.

Other notables: Marcus Thornton, Hornets; Brandan Wright, Warriors; Yi Jianlian, Wizards; Jonas Jerebko, Pistons; Julian Wright, Hornets; Spencer Hawes, Sixers; Marco Belinelli, Hornets; Daequan Cook, Thunder; Mario Chalmers, Heat; Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Bucks; Gary Forbes, Nuggets; Reggie Williams, Warriors; Chris Douglas-Roberts, Bucks; Jason Smith, Hornets; Dante Cunningham, Bobcats; Patrick Mills, Blazers; Derrick Brown, Knicks.
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Group III: Unrestricted free agents

Finally, here are the guys who will be on the market with no strings attached.

1. Zach Randolph, PF, Grizzlies
In terms of talent, Randolph may be the best free agent in the 2011 class. He's a double-double machine who's having another terrific season.

In the past, his baggage has scared away some teams, but he has remained relatively free of controversy of late, and his production on the court is impossible to ignore. Given how much the Grizzlies have spent on Gay and Conley and will likely spend on Gasol, the team will have a hard time affording Randolph, too.

However in recent weeks, Heisley has promised the team will keep him.

Given how well the Grizzlies have played of late, they might not have much of a choice.

2. Tyson Chandler, Mavericks
Chandler has struggled with injuries for much of his career and continues to be a so-so offensive player. But he's been key for Dallas this season and has proven that when healthy he can be a beast on the boards and a game-changing presence on the defensive end.

Given the relative weakness of the free-agent class, combined with the dearth of pure centers in the league, Chandler is likely to get a big payday, most likely from the Mavs.

3. Carl Landry, PF, Hornets
Landry may not be a household name, but he's a very efficient power forward who has produced most of his career. He struggled with the Kings this season but has been solid coming off the bench for New Orleans since being traded there at the deadline.

He's been underpaid for most of his career, but that should change in a big way next summer. He'll be the 2011 version of Paul Millsap.

4. Tayshaun Prince, F, Pistons
Injuries have slowed the 31-year-old small forward at times, but when Prince is at his best he's a lock-down perimeter defender who can hit open shots.

With the Pistons in rebuilding mode, it's very likely he'll bolt this summer if they don't trade him first.

5. Jason Richardson, SG, Magic
His numbers no longer pop out at you, especially since the Suns traded him to Orlando, but Richardson continues to play well. He is a big threat from behind the arc and still has some bounce in those 30-year-old legs.

The Magic have incurred a massive payroll, so unless they win a title this season it's unlikely they'll be willing to pay Richardson to stay around.

6. Jamal Crawford, G, Hawks
Crawford is the reigning sixth man of the year, but it's hard to see his relationship with the Hawks lasting much longer. With the large contracts of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Horford now on the Hawks' books, it's doubtful they'll bring back Crawford, too.

7. Caron Butler, G/F, Mavs
Butler ruptured his right patellar tendon in January and will likely miss the rest of the season in rehab.

The timing couldn't be much worse for his free agency. He had already seen his numbers decline since his All-Star days, and now coming off a knee injury at 31, he's going to have to slash his asking price. Still, if he can return to health, he still has a few years left as a scorer.

8. Samuel Dalembert, C, Kings
Slammin' Sammy may not be an All-Star, but the big man can still rebound and defend, so there's been a lot of interest as we approach the trade deadline, demonstrating the premium on size and shot-blocking.

Dalembert turns 30 this summer, but he's still likely to get a number of offers in the offseason.

9. Shane Battier, F, Rockets
Battier got a homecoming of sorts when the Grizzlies traded back for him at the February deadline. Battier's first stint in Memphis didn't go so well, but this time the team is better -- better than the Rockets team he spent much of his career on.

He's also a temporary crutch of sorts. Gay will be back, and if the Grizzlies pay Gasol and Randolph in free agency where will the money come from to keep Battier, too?

10. Yao Ming, C, Rockets
If Yao were healthy, he would be the top unrestricted free agent on this list. But after yet another serious injury his durability and future are much in doubt.

The Rockets have explored the trade market for Yao but haven't had a lot of luck. Someone will sign him if he appears to be able to play again, but he's not the big catch teams thought he'd be two years ago.
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#1 J.R., Mar 18, 2011

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9. Shane Battier, F, Rockets
Battier got a homecoming of sorts when the Grizzlies traded back for him at the February deadline. Battier's first stint in Memphis didn't go so well, but this time the team is better -- better than the Rockets team he spent much of his career on.
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you have to be kidding me...

#2 JVL713, Mar 18, 2011
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JVL713 said: ↑

you have to be kidding me...
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Our 2009 team is possibly better than any team Memphis has put out in its franchise existence. Stupid writer.

#3 mrm32, Mar 18, 2011
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mrm32 said: ↑

Our 2009 team is possibly better than any team Memphis has put out in its franchise existence. Stupid writer.
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I read it as the writer meant the rockets team this season which I totally agree.

#4 SunsRocketsfan, Mar 18, 2011
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If we've got anything to offer, I'd try to grab DeAndre Jordan. Sterling isn't as tight-fisted as he used to be re salaries, but maybe it'd work.

#5 JuanValdez, Mar 18, 2011
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JuanValdez said: ↑

If we've got anything to offer, I'd try to grab DeAndre Jordan. Sterling isn't as tight-fisted as he used to be re salaries, but maybe it'd work.
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Couldn't agree more... Oops, I mean - This.

#6 DreamShook, Mar 18, 2011
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JVL713 said: ↑

you have to be kidding me...
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I wonder if he meant to say "better than the Memphis team he spent much of his career on."
He already messed up by naming Shane's current team as the Rockets, so at least it would be a consistent error on his part.

Otherwise, the current Memphis team is quite comparable to this year's Rockets team. And the Rockets teams in the past few years have been better than this Memphis team.

#7 BigBenito, Mar 18, 2011

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JuanValdez said: ↑

If we've got anything to offer, I'd try to grab DeAndre Jordan. Sterling isn't as tight-fisted as he used to be re salaries, but maybe it'd work.
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For sure, but I'm worried that because he's Blake Griffin's best friend, Sterling's going to feel pressured to dig deep in to his pockets to retain Jordan.

Jordan's definitely the most desirable FA, in my book. Long, freakish athleticism, excellent defender around the rim, great finisher. He would instantly fill the void at center, and imagine a defensive frontline of Chuck Hayes and Jordan... scary.

#8 MourningWood, Mar 18, 2011
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With center being our biggest whole to fill, the only veteran high price center's I would consider going after would be Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol or Nene Hilario. If none of those guys can be had, then I would look to sign a young big. With the only young bigs worth considering, being...

1. DeAndre Jordan(22)
2. Spencer Hawes (22)
3. Kyrylo Fesenko (24)
4. Alexis Ajinca (22)

The most likely of these would probably be Fesenko, given the interest the Rockets had on him last year, and he would come at a cheap price. Also it will be a lot harder to get Jordan or Hawes due to their restriction in free agency.

#9 rocketblaze, Mar 18, 2011
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When the Clippers dumped Baron Davis' contract with their unprotected pick, they pretty much set themselves up financially to resign DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers will probably trade Chris Kaman for a small forward. With Kaman being an expiring contract, and centers being such a commodity, Kaman will have trade value

#10 Clips/Roxfan, Mar 18, 2011
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JVL713 said: ↑

you have to be kidding me...
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who is this stupid writer? obviously this idiot does not watch basketball at all.

"better than the Rockets team he spent much of his career on" stupid *******

#11 k-money, Mar 18, 2011
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"Marc Gasol: Here's one that GM Chris Wallace got right"

Really? And then he goes on to say that Marc won't be better than Pau, so what the hell did he get right? Screwing the rest of the league?

#12 vinsensual, Mar 18, 2011
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Poor Yao

#13 New Generation, Mar 18, 2011

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rocketblaze said: ↑

With center being our biggest whole to fill, the only veteran high price center's I would consider going after would be Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol or Nene Hilario. If none of those guys can be had, then I would look to sign a young big. With the only young bigs worth considering, being...

1. DeAndre Jordan(22)
2. Spencer Hawes (22)
3. Kyrylo Fesenko (24)
4. Alexis Ajinca (22)

The most likely of these would probably be Fesenko, given the interest the Rockets had on him last year, and he would come at a cheap price. Also it will be a lot harder to get Jordan or Hawes due to their restriction in free agency.
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Problem is none of those guys are going to be available without a trade.

#14 Liberon, Mar 18, 2011
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We have to get DeAndre! NO questions asked! He soo fits our rebuilding team imo

#15 infinitidoug, Mar 18, 2011
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this writer has no idea what he is doing.....

#16 TmacRedemption, Mar 18, 2011
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vinsensual said: ↑

"Marc Gasol: Here's one that GM Chris Wallace got right"

Really? And then he goes on to say that Marc won't be better than Pau, so what the hell did he get right? Screwing the rest of the league?
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Not safe to assume but I assume what's he's talking about is what he said in sentence following that one, which is:

Wallace believed Gasol would have a bright future when most did not
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so therefor GM Chris Wallace "got right" or "got it right".

#17 J.R., Mar 18, 2011
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I agree with everyone, I would LOVE to sign/trade for DeAndre Jordan, but if we can't get him, I guess Marc Gasol or Thaddeus Young would be all right. How about taking a chance on Greg Oden? Anyone up for that?

#18 Rockets12, Mar 18, 2011

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9. Shane Battier, F, Rockets
Battier got a homecoming of sorts when the Grizzlies traded back for him at the February deadline. Battier's first stint in Memphis didn't go so well, but this time the team is better -- better than the Rockets team he spent much of his career on.
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I think it should have been "better than the Rockets team (this season) where he spent much of his career."

Stupid Chad Ford! Either he does not watch the NBA or he is a dumb writer.

#19 ribbit, Mar 18, 2011
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Kaman is the only Clipper on a guaranteed non-rookie contract. Their salary situation is really good in the near future. Any GM would kill to inherit that team right now. But do you think Sterling will be willing to pay all of his young players in the next 2-3 years? Their payroll could skyrocket to 90+ million in 4 years easily if all their players got market value, and that's assuming there's no hard cap.

If not, I could see them being stupid enough to let Jordan go and we'd better throw lots of money at him this offseason.

#20 ashishduh, Mar 18, 2011

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