I'm not including Patterson or Jeffries here due to the few games they've played. But I thought it might be interesting to take a look at +/- for our other 4 bigs -- Scola, Hayes, Hill, and Miller. As you know, Adelman likes to pair up Scola+Hayes and Hill+Miller. As he recently talked about in this interview, those pairings give him a player that's comfortable playing in the high-post and a player that's more comfortable playing in the low post. Through the Portland game, here is a summary: Code: [B]Name Min +/- +/- (per 36)[/B] Scola 1080 +96 +3.2 Hayes 653 +10 +0.6 Hill 550 -90 -5.9 Miller 586 +21 +1.3 Here's their +/- game-by-game, along with moving 5 game averages (plus-minus taken from HoopData.com): Schedule difficulty could play a role. Here is a strength of schedule plot I posted earlier. It might be a helpful reference to gauge how the strength of the opponents fluctuated over the first couple months of the season (see blue line). A few basic remarks: Scola looks pretty good in general though his +/- has been tailing off the last few weeks Hayes's +/- took a big dive in late November but Rockets played better with him through the light December schedule. Hill's had a negative +/- for quite some time -- perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised that the starters have struggled playing alongside him the last two games? More insight could come from looking at +/- for front-court combinations, while also accounting for the strength of the lineups those combinations faced. Something worth looking into.
I see Hill's inconsistency as much as anyone else, but the other three guys are established veterans who aren't going to get any better, while Hill has the upside to be better than all of them and is still very inexperienced. He can't get better if he doesn't play. With his tools, it's a longshot, but you don't win championships without taking chances on high upside guys like Hill. Still, it's a longshot.
I'll say this, it is damn impressive that Brad Miller can maintain a positive +/- even though the vast majority of his minutes are shared with Jordan Hill. If that isn't an affirmation of his value I don't know what is.
Not to single you out, because this seems to be a widely accepted fact, but what exactly makes people believe Hill has a "high upside".
He has tools that very few players have. His biggest problem is his lack of a defined game. The difference between Veterans and Rookies is that Vets know what they do well, and they do it often. Jordan Hill has no idea what he does well, so he tries to do everything. I think he needs to put on 20-30 lbs, and become a true low post player...Rebound, Defend, Jump HOOK!!! Use it Jordan!!! It's your best shot!!! Pros 6-10 Athletic Long 23 years old Footwork Finishing Jumphook Jumpshot Isolation post defense Rebounding Low-Post Cons Consistency "Go To" move Defensive Rotations High-Post Experience
How is rebounding a strength? He is an average rebounder overall and a very poor defensive rebounder.
I would agree with all of those, except I do think he has shown that he can run the court pretty damn well, especially when Ish was playing. I think Jordan is a pick and roll big. The problem is that we run very, very few Pick and Rolls... He needs to get in that weightroom, but I do think he can be a very good NBA rebounder. I also think his jumper is pretty damn solid, and getting better.
The problem is between his ears. He is just not intelligent on the court, he doesn't understand positioning, he can't read plays. Why do you think he is such a bad defensive rebounder but a reasonably ok offensive rebounder? Because on offense he just has to focus on the ball and jump. Whereas on defense he has to read the play, make the rotation, position himself between his man and the basket, too complicated for him and he just gets lost.
There has been too many players that have come and gone in the NBA with nothing to show for it with that same physical profile for it to be the source of any upside, IMO. This is the fallacy in most fans' thinking, that a guy who is tall and can jump automatically has a high upside. While those things can certainly help a player, what ultimately determines his upside is his ability to play basketball. All of those are basketball skills. And while Jordan Hill does have certain basketball skills, and have shown improvement in those skills, he does not know how to play basketball. There is a clear distinction that I will elaborate on. I'll give you this. Although his deficiency in help defense, defensive rotations, defensive awareness are all because, again, he simply does not know how to play basketball. He is a poor rebounder overall and his rebounding rate has actually regressed from last year. As far as Cons, there are countless cons that a young basketball player can improve upon where they do not inhibit his upside. However, there is one element that is the death knell to any upside and development. A lack of the mental capacity to learn how to play basketball. I am not talking about skills that can be taught through repetition. That does not require anything between the ears. I am talking about actually understanding the game, how to play the game of basketball. Not just how to take a jump shot or hook shot, but understanding the concept of what a team is trying to do on offense, trying to do on defense. From what I have heard from him in all his interviews, and from watching his body language on court, I am afraid that that is his biggest deficiency. And that is the biggest thing that will limit any of his upside. I see a player who's upside is that guy who people wonder what could have been, if only he had put it all together. The problem is, people were looking at his physical profile and his skills, and missed the fact that he never knew how to play the game. I hope I'm wrong about him(if we don't trade him), but that is why I see little if any upside in him at all.
I agree with much of these things about Hill, but I come to a different conclusion. He is still learning. As things start to become reflexes, he will have to think less, and a lot of these complaints will be resolved.
Easily another 5 star thread great work dude. I agree with everyone else when they state Hill's greatest weakness is his basketball mind. However people have to remember he has only played organized basketball since SENIOR YEAR OF HIGH SCHOOL. Its insane to think he can pick up all the rotations and BBIQ in just 4 5 years of playing organized ball. What he needs to do is just keep working on his game in the offseasons and studying tape so he can develop that awareness. He's got an NBA body but his experience is so limited that it hinders his ability to use all his tools. Patience is a virtue for us fans and we have to remember how little basketball action this kid has seen. His ceiling is incredible and if he cant harness that potential than at the worst we have a high energy athletic of the big that has shown he can give a lift.
