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[BasketballValue] Player Combination +/- (2010-2011)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Nov 7, 2010.

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  1. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    BasketballValue.com keeps an almost up-to-date record of +/- information for NBA teams throughout the NBA season. In addition to unadjusted plus-minus, team ORTG and team DRTG with player on the floor, and their version of 1-year and 2-year adjusted +/-, they also show +/- information for 5-man units. Its a good resource for looking at how different units or player combinations perform. You can even see results for unit vs unit matchups.

    http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=&team=HOU
    http://basketballvalue.com/teamunits.php?year=2010-2011&team=HOU
    http://basketballvalue.com/teamvsteam.php?year=2010-2011&team1=HOU

    Its very early in the season, but still I figure it might be of interest to check up on things. Currently, BV.com is up-to-date through 11/5 (so, not including SAS game). I can use this thread to revisit some +/- numbers that might be of interest periodically during the season.

    First quick look is how we do on offense/defense with our high-scoring, non-defending backcourt -- Brooks and Martin. A more complete evaluation would also adjust for level of opponents they are playing against. Maybe someone can look into this at some stage, but I'll keep it simple for now. This is what I found through the Rockets first 4 games:

    Code:
               [b]min   +/-   ORTG   DRTG   OFF +/-  DEF +/-[/b]
Both On     96  -7.8   113.5  121.3   [color=green]+5.2[/color]     [color=red]+6.0[/color]
Brooks On  131  -5.8   112.3  118.1   [color=green]+4.0[/color]     [color=red]+2.8[/color] 
Martin On  133  -8.0   110.6  118.6   [color=green]+2.3[/color]     [color=red]+3.2[/color]

Both Off    24 -12.9    93.5  106.4   [color=red]-14.8[/color]    [color=green]-9.0[/color]
Brooks Off  61  -9.9    99.2  109.1   [color=red]-9.1[/color]     [color=green]-6.3[/color]
Martin Off  59  -5.1   102.6  107.7   [color=red]-5.7[/color]     [color=green]-7.7[/color]

Brooks On,
Martin Off  35  +0.1   108.7  108.5   [color=green]+0.4[/color]     [color=green]-6.8[/color]
Martin On,
Brooks Off  37  -8.2   102.6  110.8   [color=red]-5.7[/color]     [color=green]-4.6[/color]

    Definitions for the rows to avoid confusion:

    Both On: when both Brooks and Martin were on the floor
    Brooks On: when Brooks was on the floor (with or without Martin)
    Martin On: when Martin was on the floor (with or without Brooks)

    Both Off: neither Brooks nor Martin on the floor
    Brooks Off: Brooks off the floor (Martin may or may not be on)
    Martin Off: Martin off the floor (Brooks mar or may not be on)

    Brooks On, Martin Off: self explanatory
    Martin On, Brooks Off: self explanatory

    Definitions for columns to avoid confusion:

    mins: total minutes of floor time with specified combination
    +/-: point differential with respect to opponent with specified combination
    ORTG: team's offensive efficiency with specified combination
    DRTG: team's defensive efficiency with specified combination
    OFF +/-: ORTG - team's overall offensive efficiency (green means its better, red means its worse)
    DEF +/-: DRTG - team's overall defensive efficiency (green means its better, red means its worse)

    Summary

    So again small sample size (I put the minutes in the table to stress that point), but these numbers bolsters what everyone I'm sure sees with their eyes. Brooks and Martin is a dynamite offensive combination, but our defense struggles a ton with them both on the floor. Defense goes from absolutely awful to pretty bad when only one of them is on the floor, which may also have to do with the offensive aptitude of the opponents. Not sure how much we should read into it since its only 35 minutes, but its also worth pointing out that our defensive numbers improve and offensive numbers stay around the same when its Brooks on the floor and Martin off the floor. It looks between the two like Brooks has the bigger impact on offense (not a surprise -- he's a playmaker) and Martin might also be the bigger liability on defense. Maybe we should consider starting Lee?

    FYI, league average efficiency through 11/5 was 105.8.
     
    #1 durvasa, Nov 7, 2010
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  2. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    +/- only works if you don't get into game theory, at which point it completely and utterly falls flat on its face.
     
    #2 OremLK, Nov 7, 2010
  3. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    So, what's an example of when it works in your view? Not sure what you meant.
     
    #3 durvasa, Nov 7, 2010
  4. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    I remember when durvasa burst onto the scene on clutchfans. I thought he/she was too "statsy" , but in time,but in time i have come to really appreciate the method of the madness and the objectivity along with the understanding incorporated into basketball. I have said it many times that Durvasa is one of my favorite posters and this is doesnt change anything. I know you didnt do anythong special,but i appreciate the time and the brief explanation involving the stat break down. Appreciate it Durvasa!
     
    #4 leebigez, Nov 7, 2010
  5. greatpacha1

    greatpacha1 Member

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    i think durvasa makes a pretty logical point with it...its quite obvious that what we are seeing is pretty much what those numbers are showing..why not step up the D with brooks on the floor then bring martin on when brooks goes off...lowry comes on when lee goes off..that way its somewhat a more balanced offensive and defensive presence..
     
    #5 greatpacha1, Nov 7, 2010
  6. tinman

    tinman 999999999
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    good post Durvasa,

    how do we look with Yao in the lineup?

    you know I liked that Chucks Hayes and Brad Miller combo
     
    #6 tinman, Nov 7, 2010
  7. dd89

    dd89 Member

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    Good one Durvasa. Objective and to the point. Keep it up as the season continues.
     
    #7 dd89, Nov 7, 2010
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    I wouldn't be surprised if Martin's minutes start to drop in the coming games.

    He hurt his ankle against SAS, but he came back seemingly ok after taping it up and Adelman still never put him back in the game. That he was scoring at a point-a-minute at high efficiency apparently didn't matter -- he wasn't doing enough other things on the floor to warrant playing time over Courtney Lee. This has been the story with Martin for a number of years now. I think Adelman might start getting tough with him, and when he does how will Martin respond?
     
    #8 durvasa, Nov 7, 2010
  9. pmac

    pmac Member

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    Daryl Morey isn't stupid, he knew what he was getting with Kevin Martin. I think his biggest mistake was believing that he could hide Martin on defense. People always point to Ray Allen as an example of this working but a)we aren't the celtics, we don't have their defensive talent - we do it by effort, and b)Ray Allen isn't as physically weak and is generally a smarter player on that side of the ball.

    I doubt Adelman will bench Martin. I just don't see much we can do to change what is going on out there.

    Great thread, btw
     
    #9 pmac, Nov 7, 2010
  10. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

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    Let's remember that a "Brooks off" or "Martin only" lineup has Ish or Lee running the point. When Lowry comes back to full health, those +/- numbers could change dramatically.

    I would be interested in seeing what a Lowry-Martin combo could do.
     
    #10 Mr. Clutch, Nov 7, 2010
  11. RV6

    RV6 Member

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    i think the question isn't who to start, but who to give more minutes to, lee or martin?

    I really like Lee as a player, especially defensively, but i feel like giving him more minutes or even splitting it 24/24 is going to cause Martin to have a fit. i think since we acquire Kmart the front office and coaches have talked him up, telling him how much they wanted him and how they look forward to him being a big part of the team, etc...Martin seemed to really look forward to that role and to pretty much take that way could cause problems.

    Every time i think about the offense/defense imbalance i come to the same conclusion. We need at least one more two way player. I think we can afford to keep the Martin/lee combo, because Kmart is too damn efficient and Lee is a two way player. As long as Yao keeps coming along well, our center rotation, assuming we sign dampier, is fine also. This leaves us the PG, SF, and PF position. With hill slowly showing he can be a two way player and scola not totally sucking on defense if he just doesnt leave his man, then that just leaves the SF and PG positions. This is where we have the largest imbalance in offense/defense.

    If we can add another two way player at one of those 2 positions, i think we'll get back on track and stay on it. Right now, having to constantly decide whether to go with offense or defense at too many positions is killing the team's momentum and identity during games.
     
    #11 RV6, Nov 7, 2010
  12. rockets934life

    rockets934life Member

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    Question would be who is better without the other, would Martin benefit more from playing with Lowry or would AB benefit more from playing with Lee? I'd prefer to keep Martin in the starting lineup but I've always thought it's who gets the majority of the playing time not who starts so maybe Lee starting isn't such a stretch.
     
    #12 rockets934life, Nov 7, 2010
  13. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    I think without that long,athletic guy in ariza at the 3 to get steals and defend his position has exposed martin big time. The fact you cant hise him on anyone makes it even worse. If they get this thing turned around,which they will at some point and maybe make the playoffs,look at how he matched up. He doesnt and thats clear. The bigger problem is you replace him with a good defender avg offensive 1 position defender type like courtney lee. If i were evaluating the roster and trying to get some balance, I would try to get iggy and tayshaun and get back in the mix next yr with a fully healthy yao. Brooks,iggy,prince,scola,and yao next yr would be very,very simiar to the model of the pistons when they had 5 near quality all star starters and a deep bench. Thats what i would do,but thats just me.
     
    #13 leebigez, Nov 7, 2010
  14. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Yeah, good point.
     
    #14 durvasa, Nov 7, 2010
  15. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Not so good (especially on offense). But I'll give him a little more time before attempting to dissect it.
     
    #15 durvasa, Nov 7, 2010
  16. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    I like it. Iguodala doesn't put up the big scoring numbers like Martin, but he's durable, he's good in transition, he defends, and he's a very good passer. Put it all together, and he'll really help this team win. Getting Prince to be our Battier replacement would be a major upgrade also. He's a high IQ guy and off-court leader, like Battier, but a much more well-rounded and committed offensive player.
     
    #16 durvasa, Nov 7, 2010
  17. GATER

    GATER Member

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    I like stats. Just not as much as a personal viewing of the game(s).

    +/- doesn't tell me that Rockets' are trying to integrate a huge number of "new to each other" rotational players into a Team D scheme.

    You get that info by watching the games. :grin:
     
    #17 GATER, Nov 7, 2010
  18. somenobody

    somenobody Member

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    Insteresting! It is different from what I saw. But it is always nice to see an objective analysis. Thanks!
     
    #18 somenobody, Nov 7, 2010
  19. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Rockets trying to integrate a lot of new players into a team D scheme is not a new thing this year, though. And I don't feel we have that many new players. Brooks, Battier, Scola, Yao, Hayes, Budinger, Lowry should all be pretty acquainted with what we're trying to do. Martin is newer, but he's also a vet who's played under Adelman before.

    You're right that things should naturally improve with increased chemistry and familiarity (and an easier schedule, which always helps). But I think more fundamentally, this team just has a number of bad defenders at key rotational positions.
     
    #19 durvasa, Nov 7, 2010
  20. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    This is what I've been taling about forever. Its about player balance on both offense and defense,but the rockets have to admit privately that this current collection is no closer to a title than 2004 season. Thats not to say they dont have better overral talent,but the 2 best players then are far superior to what they have now.
     
    #20 leebigez, Nov 7, 2010
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