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Rockets 1st round pick for next year, and tanking

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Feb 21, 2010.

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  1. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    With all the recent talk about the Rockets perhaps getting a lottery pick this year, I just want to clear up the situation a bit more for those unfamiliar with the NBA lottery system, as well as the current standings.

    Currently, the Rockets sit tied with Memphis at #10 in the western conference standings. If the season were to end today, we would likely have the #13 pick in the draft, 2.18% chance at top 3, and a similarly small chance at dropping to #14.

    So what can change between now and the end of the season?

    If the Rockets tank, err... develop Hill/Budinger/Taylor/etc.

    There's a thing about this year's NBA. It's that the bad teams this year are all MUCH WORSE THAN THE ROCKETS.

    This is important. After Memphis, Milwaukee(2 games behind), and the Rockets, the next best team in the league are the Clippers. Who are 6 games behind us. To put that in context, assuming the Clippers play on par with their season for the rest of the year, they would win about 32-33 games. The Rockets would have to go 4-23 to match that. Yes, that is Nets-like amount of sucking.

    It means that the best case scenario for "tanking", so to speak, is that the Rockets get the following going into the draft.

    #11 pick(likely)
    #1-3 pick(2.9%)
    #12 pick(small chance but I won't bother with the math)

    That's basically a 2 pick improvement over us currently. And 3 pick improvement on getting #9 seed in the west.

    If the Rockets make it to the playoffs

    In order to make the playoffs, the Rockets would have to play significantly better ball, and likely end the season near or at 50 games. Assuming teams in the East play roughly at the same level, that record should be at least better than 3 Eastern conference playoff teams. So the draft pick should be be #18-20ish. It is possible to be a bit higher, but not likely.

    So there is indeed somewhat of a dropoff for making the playoffs. Likely 4-5 picks. But what does that really mean? Here's some stuff to chew on if you like geeky charts.

    Basically, picks in the mid teens tend to have a slight dropoff in value as they get lower. But not nearly as much as they are at the top(i.e. #1 vs #5). So the benefit, while indeed apparent, is marginal at best. You can look at the player comparisons to see that they're all fairly similar.

    My own conclusion?

    Don't worry about draft position at all, and just enjoy the season! The Rockets simply aren't in a position to do anything relevant in the lottery, and they really can't hurt themselves either by going on a winning streak. In the end, we are stuck in the middle whether we like it or not.

    The only way this might be relevant is if Morey's computers find that this year's draft has a big dropoff at the ~15th pick mark. In which case, avoiding the playoffs may be important. But otherwise, let the chips fall where they may and not worry too much.
     
    #1 meh, Feb 21, 2010
    9 people like this.
  2. Rockets4279

    Rockets4279 Member

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    Top 15 is where Morey already said he needs to be before the season even started. So if they sit at 16 and 1 game out of the playoffs with 3 games left expect to miss the playoffs.
     
    #2 Rockets4279, Feb 21, 2010
  3. LifeisButaDream

    LifeisButaDream Member

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    #3 LifeisButaDream, Feb 21, 2010
  4. rockets934life

    rockets934life Contributing Member

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    Something I'd find interesting...what if the Rox somehow get a top 3 pick this season, would Morey trade it away in a sign and trade for Bosh possibly minimizing the draft picks or maybe even players that would be traded away or would he go for a young talented player at a reduced salary?
     
    #4 rockets934life, Feb 21, 2010
  5. Rockets4279

    Rockets4279 Member

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    #5 Rockets4279, Feb 21, 2010
  6. JCDenton

    JCDenton Member

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    It's too bad for your theory that even one position can be crucial. One position is why we have a washed up player like Battier instead of Brandon Roy. This draft looks deep with a lot of good players in the top 10 and then it tapers off pretty quickly between 10 and 15. We're absolutely in a range where a few slots could cost us the player we want.
     
    #6 JCDenton, Feb 21, 2010
  7. LifeisButaDream

    LifeisButaDream Member

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    He would probably trade it to the kings for landry. :rolleyes:
     
    #7 LifeisButaDream, Feb 21, 2010
  8. Trackball

    Trackball Member

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    Meh, THANK YOU for this topic. Losing-on-purpose is exactly why the lottery system was introduced.

    Why underachieve when you can overachieve? Losing is for losers.

    (Interesting note: At least once, the team with the worst chance at winning the lottery won it anyway: the Orlando Magic in 1993. They picked Chris Webber...and promptly traded him to Golden State for their pick, Anfernee Hardaway at #3, and probably something else.)
     
    #8 Trackball, Feb 21, 2010
  9. jzmagic

    jzmagic Member

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    I'd rather we have a chance at 1-3 than be a 1st round exit, but I'd still be happy if we made the playoffs.
     
    #9 jzmagic, Feb 21, 2010
  10. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    If Morey's cutoff line really is #15, then they MUST miss the playoffs as it stands now. Because the Eastern conference suck, the Rockets will either have #11-14, or (very likely)#17-20. If they're at #16, it means they're in the playoffs and a medicore Eastern conference team had a late-season surge.

    And I'm sure Morey's just saying that as a ballpark figure. You never know with how players get better or worse, what that number is at this point in the season. I won't try to guess Morey's pick, since he usually doesn't draft anyone we know. :)
     
    #10 meh, Feb 21, 2010
  11. LifeisButaDream

    LifeisButaDream Member

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    <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/jfejFdqLJyI&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/jfejFdqLJyI&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
     
    #11 LifeisButaDream, Feb 21, 2010
  12. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    If the Rockets get the #2 or #3 pick, I would love to see them select Evan Turner, 6-7 SG out of Ohio State. He's getting a lot of comparisons to Brandon Roy. He'd be great depth behind Martin and Ariza and would eventually be the starter at either SG or SF, perhaps even a franchise player. But that's all probably just a pipe dream.

    More likely, I think the Rockets end up with a pick somewhere between #12-14, but we know that Morey has the assets he needs to move up in the draft if he so chooses. (Not into the top 3, though.)
     
    #12 BimaThug, Feb 21, 2010
  13. LifeisButaDream

    LifeisButaDream Member

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    Wow. How did kobe last to 13?<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/0v2aJdD_L3M&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/0v2aJdD_L3M&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
     
    #13 LifeisButaDream, Feb 21, 2010
  14. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    Roy was the 6th pick. That one position away would be Randy Foye.

    If anything, that situation proves that one position doesn't matter for overall talent. It's a crapshoot where hindsight determines the best successes.

    Otherwise, Minnesota wouldn't have been so eager to trade away Roy.
     
    #14 Invisible Fan, Feb 21, 2010
  15. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    The New Jersey Nets were actually going to take him at #8, but he told them that he only wanted to play for the Lakers and would not be happy in New Jersey. So the Nets were basically FORCED to draft their second choice in Kerry Kittles. Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets drafted Kobe at #13 for the Lakers and then traded him to L.A. in exchange for Vlade Divac.
     
    #15 BimaThug, Feb 21, 2010
  16. clos4life

    clos4life Member

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    If you can get Bosh for this draft and it doesn't cost you John Wall then you absolutely trade away that pick for him unless it cost you some seriously good rotation players.
     
    #16 clos4life, Feb 21, 2010
  17. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    Kobe was killing it at Philly's training facilities. Agents then had much more clout.
     
    #17 Invisible Fan, Feb 21, 2010
  18. Trackball

    Trackball Member

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    Funny you bring up the '84 draft. That was the last year there WASN'T a lottery. And if memory serves, that pick that year was TRADED to us from somewhere else months earlier.

    But above all, as ESPN Classic's "Top 5 Reasons You Can't Blame" said, the draft is a crapshoot. There's no way of knowing how a pick will pan out. Ask Luther Wright, LaRue Martin, or Bobby Hurley (that last one was due to a car accident brought on by stupidity--not wearing a seat belt).
     
    #18 Trackball, Feb 22, 2010
  19. LifeisButaDream

    LifeisButaDream Member

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    Who would of thought MJ would be the greatest ever.<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/I7v_6GzDO20&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/I7v_6GzDO20&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
     
    #19 LifeisButaDream, Feb 22, 2010
  20. Trackball

    Trackball Member

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    Exactly. He was a far better player in the pros that he was in college...but in 1984, who would have known?

    Like when the Atlanta Falcons traded that third-string quarterback to the Green Bay Packers...his name was, uh...Brett Favor or something, I don't know.

    (And besides, as Rudy T himself said in his autobiography, "Had we lost the [coin] flip, I'm sure we would have taken Jordan at #2.")
     
    #20 Trackball, Feb 22, 2010
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