How the new guys defend

pmac · 10-25-2009, 12:39 PM

I decided to pay closer attention to how our new acquisitions were playing defense for a few reasons. Before the preseason started there was a little controversy over how each of them would defend, some of them were predicted to be good defenders (Ariza, Dorsey, and possibly Pops) and some were considered defensive liabilities (Budinger, Taylor and Andersen). Also, there really isn’t much data given out on defense. There are plenty of stats in the box score and on various websites that give you some idea of how good a player is doing on offense. And, I wanted to look at some of the contrasting styles of defense and see how they would mesh with the players we already have. This is often overlooked but the mixing and matching of rotations is important for offense and defense.

So, for the purposes of keeping track of who did what, I used some notation (see below). I repeat these are just notation, not stats, that I used to keep track of things (If anyone knows somewhere I can find stats like this I’d definitely like to see it). This only shows individual definite action. It does not account for solid defense, like keeping your man in front of you and providing good help (but, that’s definitely important and I pay attention to those things). Also, I missed about the last 3 and half minutes of the 4th quarter of the Celtics and Magic games (DVR issues), and the first half of the 1st quarter of the Raptors game.

Defensive Stops(DS) – This is any charge taken, block, or steal. Basically, anything that resulted in an immediate turnover or prevents a player from scoring where they otherwise would have. Half a point was given if the player helped another defender get a stop.
Defensive Mistakes(DM) – When a player is the cause of a point being scored (not paying attention, not fighting through picks, weak post D,etc.) he gets 1 DM. When a player is helping (doubling, fouling at the rim,etc.) he gets 0.5 DM.
Points Scored On(PSO) – This is the total amount of points scored on a player. Similar to DM, the helper gets half the PSO of his teammate who is most at fault.
Minutes Played(MP) – well, you know what that is.

So, the PSO seems really low…sorry. I didn’t penalize anyone for fast breaks, early offense, or any play where I thought team defense was more at fault. If Budinger misses a shot and TJ Ford races down the court and passes to Granger for an easy shot, I don’t see how I can fault any one person.

Trevor Ariza

Code:

Game Total		DS	DM	PSO	MP
Trevor Ariza		14	28	59	212

I know how Ariza plays and defensively I was sure some people would be disappointed. He’s a good defender but he doesn’t play defense anything close to the style we’re use to seeing from Battier. His value is in creating transition offense, disrupting the passing lanes, and his ability to switch on pick and roles (using his length and quickness). Offensively, it is a little easier to see he was trying too hard but he was doing the same thing defensively. Before Shane came back he tried to pick up the defensive slack for everyone to the point where he was practically double teaming Budinger’s man and leaving his wide open. If he can continue to learn to trust his teammates on that end he can become a much greater defender.

Chase Budinger

Code:

Game Total		DS	DM	PSO	MP
Chase Budinger		8	37	76	226

I was really impressed with Budinger on this end of the court. The talk was that he would be awful defensively but he seemed pretty solid to me. He isn’t a stopper but I think he’ll be fine guarding the second best wing player. He isn’t strong but he moves his feet well (as he should, with his athleticism) and knows his limitations. Not only is he not a bad defender, he has potential to be a really good one.

David Andersen

Code:

Game Total		DS	DM	PSO	MP
David Andersen		5	38	77.5	157

He was bad. But, there’s still hope he can improve. A lot of the mistakes he was making seemed more like things he didn’t know he was supposed to do instead of things he couldn’t do. I mean, for a near 7 footer he’s pretty athletic. The problem is he isn’t moving his feet, he’s leaning and hacking and he isn’t using his size at all. He needs to learn how to use his body to keep the offense from gaining good position and stand straight up to keep from getting a foul call. The most depressing thing was that he was usually guarding the worst big man on the floor. When the Dwight Howard’s and Tim Duncan’s start playing after preseason he’ll be defending much better players.
Side note: I was impressed with his offensive ability. He seems to have some moves down low but for whatever reason he isn’t using it enough. He might have to start because his release doesn’t look quick enough to be only a jumpshooting big man. That 40.3 fg% and 16.7 3pt% isn’t helping, get inside and mix it up big fella.

Jermaine Taylor

Code:

Game Total		DS	DM	PSO	MP
Jermaine Taylor		3.5	16	31	91

If Andersen was bad Taylor was awful. There was this stretch in the Celtics game where he made Marquis Daniels look like Michael Jordan. He put all the moves on him - the jumper, the crossover to get to the rack, the post up, and even mixed in some playmaking. Taylor looked helpless against Marquis Daniels. The only sequence worse than that was in the same game when Brian Scalabrine took Chase Budinger all the way to the rack from the three point line but even that was just one isolated play. He’s likely d-league bound so it doesn’t matter much this year.

Joey Dorsey

Code:

Game Total		DS	DM	PSO	MP
Joey Dorsey		2.5	12	19	77

The biggest thing working against Dorsey is between his ears. You can see his hustle and you know he’s trying but he’ll screw up the play somehow. I would say we should just give up on him but he’s got some things going for him. He’s very strong, very athletic and has the wide body to allow him to play center full time. He’s no brain surgeon but you can see the potential there. If Ben ‘we always confidence’ Wallace can work around his mental shortcomings so can Dorsey, if he wants to.

Pops Mensa Bomsu

Code:

Game Total		DS	DM	PSO	MP
Pops Mensa Bomsu	14	19	38	129

I like what Pops gives us and he seems like a Rockets guy, if that makes any sense. He’s always hustling, fight for loose balls, and never gives up on a play. His game is similar to Landry just with a offense/defense switch. He isn’t a good offensive player but occasionally he’ll surprise you with a good game or a nice play. On defense, he’s better than I expected. He’s wildly inconsistent but the overall results are nice. You can count on him for defensive energy off the bench like you can count on Landry for offense.

durvasa · 10-25-2009, 12:42 PM

Very cool. Thanks for doing that.

pmac · 10-25-2009, 12:42 PM

Wow...sorry guys. I just realized how incredibly long this post was.

I just wanted to talk about defense. :D

durvasa · 10-25-2009, 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmac

Wow...sorry guys. I just realized how incredibly long this post was.

I just wanted to talk about defense. :D

Don't apologize. Great topic and great post.

Rocketman03 · 10-25-2009, 12:58 PM

Impressive research, nice work.

saitou · 10-25-2009, 01:52 PM

Thanks for the hard work pmac. If you intend to do this again in future and if you have the time, I'd like to suggest you add something like "points attempted on", to give the other stats more context. "Points attempted on" would allow "defensive stops", "defensive mistakes" and "points scored on" to tell us something about the player's efficiency.

eg. If Ariza was guarding the best wing player most of the time, his "points scored on", "defensive mistakes" and possibly even his "defensive stops" (due to more opportunities) would be inflated as the guy he is guarding would have more possession. Points attempted on would help us see whether 10 points scored on was a good or bad thing.

**Dr of Dunk** · 10-25-2009, 01:55 PM

Your PSO stat can be misleading simply because Ariza is going to be guarding some of the best scorers in the game whereas someone like Andersen may be guarding a stiff in the pre-season (or even regular season). Just because Ariza gave up 16 points in a game doesn't mean he played bad d.

declan32001 · 10-25-2009, 01:57 PM

Great thread, and thanks for the hard work.

I think Andersen's defensive play will be crucial unless he's hitting around 50% of his shots (not likely). We know he has to adjust, but he's still the X-factor for me.

I agree Budinger will be a pretty good defender in time, but his scoring ability makes his defense less of an issue to me.

The nucleus of this team rubs off defensively on players who come here, so I do live in hope. But I do hope losing a lot early won't stunt anyone's growth because other than Pops everyone else has pretty nice contracts.

foo82 · 10-25-2009, 03:27 PM

Anderson's defensive footwork looks really awkward. I can tell why he isn't much of a dancer in that rookie danceoff thing.

durvasa · 10-25-2009, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by foo82

Anderson's defensive footwork looks really awkward. I can tell why he isn't much of a dancer in that rookie danceoff thing.

It was particularly bad in the last game. He couldn't do anything right.

tiger0330 · 10-25-2009, 07:03 PM

Nice post. I would cut all these guys some slack on D since they are new, it will take them a while to get to know the other NBA players tendencies along with adjusting to the speed of the game.

pmac · 10-25-2009, 07:03 PM

saitou and DoD,

You are both right, how many shots taken on a player and who took them is very important. When I started this I intended it to be a conversation starter more than anything. I was just typing out what I think we all normally think about when watching games, things stats don't always show. I kinda wrote off those things as obvious assumptions.

Hopefully it's still useful to see considering Ariza and Budinger played much more minutes than the other new players.

**Dr of Dunk** · 10-25-2009, 07:15 PM

Express your PSO as a ratio instead of a whole number and it becomes a better, but not necessarily great, stat. You'll still see the Arizas and Battiers of the world having to guard the best scorers and therefore have this number inflated. As for a ratio, something like "points scored on/points attempted on". The downfall of that ratio, of course would be "if I guard you so tightly that you don't even consider taking a shot, I don't get rewarded with any PSO credit" vs. "I gave you some room, you took the shot, and bricked while I guarded you - I get PSO credit".

This is the PITA that is quantifying defensive ability in numbers - it's so damn subjective sometimes.

clos4life · 10-25-2009, 07:44 PM

Awesome stuff to read. It verifies what I saw in the preseason games. I'm curious to see how some players will do in real game situations now.

larsv8 · 10-26-2009, 12:34 AM

Should convert to per minute for comparitive purposes and a chart to see if improves as experience in games grows.

Great info !