[TrueHoop] Discussion with Wayne Winston (Mavs Stats Expert)

Some may remember that Mark Cuban was on Daryl Morey's sports analytics panel last Spring. Cuban's main stats guy is Wayne Winston, who's book "Mathletics" recently came out. He's probably the first guy to come up with adjusted +/- and sell the idea to NBA teams (his version was called WINVAL). He's taking part in a series of Q/As for TrueHoop describing the stuff he works on, and how the Mavs use it.

Here's the link to the first one.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop...-Mark-Cuban-s-Stats-Expert-Isn-t-Bashful.html

 

Basketball is 1/2 offense, 1/2 defense. No way around that. But I do think there's a rationale to paying more attention to the offensive side, beyond the obvious fact that most available stats do a better job of describing that end. Consider the following comments from David Thorpe:

David Thorpe cautions against reading too much into individual defensive ratings, as coaching has such a massive effect. His example: With Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, Seattle was a bad team. Both players, then, had very bad defensive ratings according to adjusted plus/minus. Yet in the last two years, those same players have been starters (Allen on the 2007/2008 Celtics, Lewis on the 2008/2009 Magic) on the NBA's best defensive teams, with good defensive ratings. His point: Put a motivated player in a good defensive system, and they'll perform."On bad teams, there is often not a good plan," Thorpe explains. "But get them playing for Tom Thibodeau or Stan Van Gundy, and all kinds of players can master when to go over the screen, when to go under, when to lock and trail, which 3-point shooters to close out, not fouling on shot fakes, when to help from the weakside. ... Take the five worst defenders in the league -- so long as they're motivated to be good defenders -- and sprinkle them among the Cavaliers, the Magic, the Celtics, the Spurs and the Rockets, and I think you'd be surprised at how effective they could be."
​

Thorpe being a coach, it could be that he's somewhat biased. But I do agree that there is inherently more individualism on the offensive side than defensive side. Not that teamwork isn't important for offense; it's just a consequence of offenses being more proactive than reactive, compared to defenses. The upshot of this is that how well you perform on the offensive side is more correlated to your individual offensive abilities, whereas how you perform on the defensive side is less correlated to your individual defensive abilities (i.e. more a function of coaching, team philosophy, the type of help you're getting from your teammates).

Putting it more concretely, I think you'll find that there is much more variation in how individual players contribute on the offensive side than defensive side. For example, below I show 6-year offensive and defensive adjusted +/- for some 125 players played played 2000 minutes last year (computed by Steve Ilardi from the apbrmetrics board). For this data set, I calculate the standard deviation of offensive adjusted +/- to be 2.6, and for defensive adjusted +/- it is 0.4.

Code:

[SIZE=2]  [B]                                        Offensive    Defensive    Std      Total
Team        Player              Min       Adj +/-      Adj +/-      Err      Adj +/-[/B]
ATL         Horford, Al         2,205     -1.75        1.29         1.52     -0.46
ATL         Smith, Josh         2,421     0.24         1.06         1.02     1.3
ATL         Johnson, Joe        3,081     1.4          -0.11        0.91     1.29
ATL         Bibby, Mike         2,705     2.31         -0.63        0.91     1.68
ATL         Williams, Marvin    2,053     0.73         -1.79        1.13     -1.06
BOS         Perkins, Kendrick   2,108     -4.96        2.71         1.19     -2.25
BOS         Rondo, Rajon        2,482     -3.4         1.77         1.36     -1.63
BOS         Pierce, Paul        2,852     5.66         0.87         0.82     6.53
BOS         Allen, Ray          2,691     5.33         -2.26        0.91     3.07
CHA         Okafor, Emeka       2,656     -1.7         0.78         1.14     -0.92
CHA         Wallace, Gerald     2,629     0.11         0.71         1.11     0.82
CHA         Felton, Raymond     3,043     2.07         0.46         1.15     2.53
CHA, PHX    Bell, Raja          2,282     -1.22        1.15         0.87     -0.08
CHA, PHX    Diaw, Boris         2,714     -1.31        1.02         0.86     -0.29
CHA, PHX    Richardson, Jason   2,411     0.93         -1.02        0.83     -0.08
CHI         Thomas, Tyrus       2,175     -2.91        0.13         1.42     -2.79
CHI         Gordon, Ben         2,974     2.37         -0.71        1.03     1.65
CHI         Rose, Derrick       2,977     0.86         -2.12        1.84     -1.26
CHI, SAC    Miller, Brad        2,100     2.3          2.94         0.95     5.24
CHI, SAC    Salmons, John       2,959     -2.15        -2.53        0.88     -4.68
CLE         Varejao, Anderson   2,306     -0.5         4.82         1.14     4.32
CLE         James, LeBron       3,054     7.99         1.5          1.01     9.5
CLE         West, Delonte       2,152     -0.39        1.5          0.98     1.11
CLE         Williams, Mo        2,834     1.39         -2.32        0.93     -0.93
DAL         Nowitzki, Dirk      2,977     4.71         1.42         0.98     6.12
DAL         Kidd, Jason         2,814     4.31         0.49         0.95     4.79
DAL         Terry, Jason        2,428     4.41         -2.93        0.89     1.48
DEN         Hilario, Nene       2,490     -1.42        5.4          1.02     3.99
DEN         Martin, Kenyon      2,084     -1.18        4.86         0.92     3.68
DEN         Smith, J.R.         2,212     1.98         -2.56        1.01     -0.57
DEN         Anthony, Carmelo    2,237     4.46         -3.26        1.01     1.2
DEN, DET    Iverson, Allen      2,050     2.68         -0.66        0.86     2.02
DEN, DET    Billups, Chauncey   2,749     5.32         -0.9         0.96     4.42
DET         Wallace, Rasheed    2,085     1.72         2.77         0.94     4.49
DET         Prince, Tayshaun    3,022     0.05         2.1          1.08     2.14
DET         Hamilton, Richard   2,249     -0.12        0.25         1.04     0.13
DET         Stuckey, Rodney     2,480     -1.93        -2.1         1.6      -4.03
GSW         Jackson, Stephen    2,184     0.78         -0.2         0.8      0.58
GSW         Azubuike, Kelenna   2,262     -1.73        -1.33        1.44     -3.06
GSW, NYK    Harrington, Al      2,479     -0.22        -1.2         0.77     -1.42
GSW, NYK    Crawford, Jamal     2,379     0.36         -3.06        0.84     -2.7
HOU         Artest, Ron         2,343     2.23         5.09         0.88     7.32
HOU         Ming, Yao           2,454     1.58         4.38         0.85     5.97
HOU         Scola, Luis         2,374     -1.81        0.37         1.5      -1.44
HOU, ORL    Alston, Rafer       2,354     -1.83        0.45         0.82     -1.38
IND         Ford, T.J.          2,258     -0.02        0.53         1.04     0.51
IND         Granger, Danny      2,424     1.4          -1.08        1.03     0.33
IND         Jack, Jarrett       2,716     -2           -2.23        1.14     -4.22
IND         Murphy, Troy        2,482     0.41         -2.99        1.01     -2.58
LAC         Davis, Baron        2,248     4.66         2.1          0.87     6.76
LAC         Gordon, Eric        2,638     -2.83        -0.86        2.14     -3.69
LAC         Thornton, Al        2,615     -0.88        -4.42        1.49     -5.3
LAL         Odom, Lamar         2,203     -1           3            0.83     2
LAL         Fisher, Derek       2,320     -1.6         2.92         0.78     1.32
LAL         Gasol, Pau          2,857     4.89         0.63         0.83     5.52
LAL         Bryant, Kobe        2,824     7.62         -0.55        0.87     7.07
MEM         Gasol, Marc         2,500     -1.08        0.85         2.73     -0.23
MEM         Mayo, O.J.          3,084     1.82         -0.75        2.65     1.08
MEM         Warrick, Hakim      2,001     -3.85        -1.94        1.29     -5.79
MEM         Gay, Rudy           2,910     1.6          -2.04        1.39     -0.44
MEM         Conley, Mike        2,479     0.35         -2.26        2        -1.9
MIA         Wade, Dwayne        3,048     7            0.99         0.91     7.99
MIA         Haslem, Udonis      2,561     -1.17        0.59         0.96     -0.57
MIA         Beasley, Michael    2,009     -2.85        -0.4         2.19     -3.25
MIA         Chalmers, Mario     2,638     -1.86        -1.51        2.02     -3.36
MIA, TOR    O'Neal, Jermaine    2,028     -0.72        3.03         0.86     2.32
MIA, TOR    Moon, Jamario       2,041     2.4          2.8          1.48     5.2
MIA, TOR    Marion, Shawn       2,471     0.98         2.72         0.85     3.69
MIL         Mbah a Moute, Luc   2,113     -3.3         6.88         2.2      3.58
MIL         Jefferson, Richard  2,939     -0.68        -0.37        0.91     -1.05
MIL         Sessions, Ramon     2,173     2.66         -1.37        2.05     1.29
MIL         Ridnour, Luke       2,033     -0.9         -2.25        1        -3.15
MIL         Villanueva, Charlie 2,095     1.8          -3.14        1.17     -1.34
MIN         Love, Kevin         2,048     -2.89        0.98         2.18     -1.92
MIN         Miller, Mike        2,356     1.21         -1.23        0.93     -0.02
MIN         Foye, Randy         2,494     1.53         -2.08        1.43     -0.56
MIN         Telfair, Sebastian  2,094     -0.48        -2.37        1.1      -2.86
MIN         Gomes, Ryan         2,614     0.12         -2.58        1.21     -2.46
NJN         Carter, Vince       2,946     1.65         0.63         0.91     2.28
NJN         Harris, Devin       2,494     3.02         -0.27        1.02     2.76
NJN         Dooling, Keyon      2,073     -1.29        -0.39        0.99     -1.68
NJN         Lopez, Brook        2,502     1.31         -1.18        2.38     0.13
NOH         Posey, James        2,058     -1.09        1.08         0.78     -0.01
NOH         West, David         2,864     -1.84        0.6          1.16     -1.24
NOH         Paul, Chris         2,888     7.46         0.04         1.33     7.5
NOH         Butler, Rasual      2,524     -1.87        -0.25        1        -2.12
NOH         Stojakovic, Peja    2,035     4.15         -1.22        0.9      2.93
NYK         Duhon, Chris        2,785     -1.68        1.36         0.99     -0.32
NYK         Lee, David          2,724     2.75         -0.4         1.25     2.35
NYK         Robinson, Nate      2,118     1.34         -0.45        1.24     0.88
NYK         Chandler, Wilson    2,635     -2.18        -2.63        1.74     -4.81
OKC         Westbrook, Russell  2,668     0            2.82         2.13     2.82
OKC         Green, Jeff         2,873     -0.89        -1.86        1.76     -2.75
OKC         Durant, Kevin       2,885     -2.61        -3.59        1.69     -6.2
ORL         Turkoglu, Hedo      2,815     1.89         1.42         0.93     3.31
ORL         Howard, Dwight      2,821     2.81         1.13         1.13     3.94
ORL         Lewis, Rashard      2,859     3.91         0.79         0.88     4.7
PHI         Young, Thaddeus     2,580     0.65         3.32         1.52     3.97
PHI         Dalembert, Samuel   2,036     -1.71        3.11         1.03     1.4
PHI         Iguodala, Andre     3,269     1.4          1.62         1.07     3.02
PHI         Miller, Andre       2,977     2.2          -2.52        0.96     -0.32
PHX         O'Neal, Shaquille   2,252     3.38         2.44         0.82     5.82
PHX         Hill, Grant         2,445     -0.96        0.76         0.99     -0.2
PHX         Barnes, Matt        2,082     -0.24        -2.24        1.01     -2.48
PHX         Nash, Steve         2,484     8.84         -2.32        0.9      6.52
POR         Aldridge, LaMarcus  2,984     2.45         3.35         1.53     5.8
POR         Roy, Brandon        2,864     3.32         -1.11        1.49     2.21
POR         Outlaw, Travis      2,213     0.24         -1.9         1.24     -1.66
POR         Blake, Steve        2,168     -0.08        -1.98        1        -2.06
SAC         Thompson, Jason     2,303     2.02         2.01         2.08     4.03
SAC         Udrih, Beno         2,270     1.02         -0.49        1.19     0.53
SAC         Hawes, Spencer      2,259     -0.37        -3.43        1.78     -3.8
SAS         Duncan, Tim         2,454     3.23         4.78         1.07     8.01
SAS         Parker, Tony        2,386     3.81         -0.58        1.09     3.23
SAS         Finley, Michael     2,278     -1.58        -1.57        0.79     -3.16
SAS         Mason, Roger        2,439     -0.58        -1.78        1.3      -2.36
TOR         Parker, Anthony     2,602     2.55         1.57         1.42     4.12
TOR         Bosh, Chris         2,884     2.98         0.15         0.97     3.13
TOR         Calderon, Jose      2,295     0.71         -2.39        1.33     -1.69
TOR         Bargnani, Andrea    2,430     -1.24        -3.02        1.4      -4.26
UTA         Millsap, Paul       2,227     0.18         3.09         1.31     3.26
UTA         Brewer, Ronnie      2,537     0.28         1.01         1.35     1.3
UTA         Okur, Mehmet        2,388     -0.48        0.01         0.93     -0.47
UTA         Williams, Deron     2,424     3.31         -1.09        1.24     2.22
WAS         Jamison, Antawn     3,025     6.25         -0.55        0.83     5.7
WAS         Butler, Caron       2,510     0.92         -0.58        0.84     0.34
WAS         McGuire, Dominic    2,008     -4.39        -4.1         1.91     -8.48[/SIZE]

 

Part 2 from Wayne Winston. This stuff is pretty entertaining to read.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop...ban-s-Stats-Expert-Isn-t-Bashful--Part-2.html

Against the Nuggets, J.R. Smith and Chris Andersen just really killed the Mavericks [in the 2009 playoffs]. But, see, Dahntay Jones -- the Pacers signed him, but I think he's terrible. Every time he was in with those four good players, he made them bad. I mean, the Pacers thought he was better than Jarrett Jack. I don't get it.

Why did Cleveland lose to Orlando? I did a post on that. Everybody thinks Mike Brown did a bad job coaching, right? OK, when Ben Wallace played, they lost by a point a minute.

They have a stat guy who does this kind of work.
They used to have Dan Rosenbaum.

They still have Dan Rosenbaum.
Then ask Dan Rosenbaum why he let this happen. I would never let his happen.

The 57 minutes when Ben Wallace played, and they didn't have Joe Smith in there, they lost by 58 points.

Wow.
How could they let that happen? Ben Wallace didn't have to play. He totally sucked. The rest of the series, the Cavaliers won by 43 points.

Didn't you feel like Cleveland sunk into Lake Erie when the Cavaliers lost that series? It didn't have to happen. The 57 minutes they lost by 58 points ... you didn't have to play Ben Wallace. They had Joe Smith. When Joe Smith played instead of Ben Wallace they did OK.

How could they not know that?

Maybe they knew it and the coach didn't listen. I mean, I should be fair here. But I mean, we would have definitely told that to the coach. When I send the analysis to the coaching staff, I'll put little tidbits in like that.

But I'll tell you what, the Cavaliers are going to be good this year, and it's not because of Shaq. It's because of Parker. Anthony Parker is really good. What happens with Delonte West with this thing ... I don't know.
​

 

Part 3.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop...ban-s-Stats-Expert-Isn-t-Bashful--Part-3.html

Check out what he has to say about the Lakers and Rockets below.

...

The key to the Lakers -- it doesn't take a genius to figure it out, is you close with Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, and Kobe Bryant. If you do that, you can't really go wrong.

You take out Bryant and leave Odom in, they were good. You take out Odom and leave Bryant in they weren't good. That's why I say Odom was better than Bryant.

OK, this is what they closed with: Trevor Ariza, Kobe Bryant, Derek Fisher, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. That's 18 points better than average. And isn't that the one that closed every game? That's a good lineup, and they played that one the most.

Artest will be interesting.

Another good lineup is if you take that same thing, but put in Luke Walton for Fisher. Or Walton for Ariza. That's just as good. Doesn't make any difference.

This lineup is off the charts, and didn't play much: Bryant, Gasol, Odom, Luke Walton and Shannon Brown.

That lineup won by 55 points a game. They played 50 minutes together.

There's things like this on every team. Let's look at Houston. They should know everything. I had dinner with Daryl Morey once when he still worked for Boston and I showed him what we do. So he knows what we do. I don't know what he does, but I know he does a lot more.

I'm happy for him. He's a really nice guy, he's been very supportive of my book and he's good for the math people. He's the "Moneyball" of the NBA.

The Rockets six lineups that played the most, five of them are ten points or more better than average.

The only bad one was Rafer Alston, Shane Battier, Tracy McGrady, Luis Scola and Yao Ming, and they won't be playing that one this season.

More to come from Wayne Winston on Monday.
​

 

Another Rockets snippet from part 3 I glossed over before:

[Houston GM] Daryl Morey, I guess, never talks about what he does. That article about Shane Battier, though, you know the one I'm talking about? A lot of that was adjusted +/-. They have their own adjusted +/-, I guess.

The dataset we use is every minute of every game -- who's on the court? That's really, to my mind, where the game should be.
​

 

Wayne Winston's presentation at 2009 New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports (link):

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