Being a Top 10 Defensive Teams and Playoff Chances

Good research , but you don't need basketball reference to tell you how the rockets play defensively without yao. The reason why teams score more especially in the paint is because Adelman wouldn't play deke behind yao. Instead he played a scola/landry combo in which they are probably the worse defenders on the rockets. So now we fast forward to this year and teams will attack the basket early and often and they will score at the bucket, putting pressurre on a rockets team that will have trouble scoring anyway.

 

Interesting premise, but more simply I think it comes down to how well the Suns will play and how much progression OK and LAC make.

 

I always believed that the Rockets would still make the playoffs as one of the lower seeds this season however our defensive ability has definetly taken a hit without Yao.

I'm not a real big fan of David Anderson as I have seen him play Euro-Ball. He may do this year without Yao but he isn't really a defensive presence inside. His not like Mutombo that goes for blocks and can't really strip players like Hayes.

I see him being an adequate back up for Yao next season or late this season if Yao comes back.

If only Hayes was 7 foot

 

We might be as good offensively without Yao (remember our efficiency when the other teams fronted Yao?), but defensively without a true shot blocker our defense is going to go way down. There's only so much good fundamental positional defense can do against the athletic freaks of the NBA who can get to the rim and finish at will when nobody on defense can block their shots.

 

If he was, he be dominant and be commanding $7 mil a year

 

I think OP underestimated the impact of a dominant shot-blocker.

OP mentioned in the seasons past the Yao effect wasn't as large. Well Yao was widely commended for playing the defense of his career last season by everyone from Daryl Morey to Yao himself, and agreed to by most of this board. Also, to assume that the most injury cursed team in the NBA won't suffer injuries is a tad optimistic.

I predict we'll be average on defense next season and average on offense and win about 40 games.

 

Our style of play on the offensive end will effect our defensive ranking dramatically. Our switch to running and gunning means less legs to defend and more opportunities for opponents to score.

 

sorry about the doublepost

 

I sincerely doubt we'd be more than just borderline top 10 defensive team. Without Yao for long stretches, teams will eventually figure out how to attack inside, which they have trouble adjusting on the fly when Yao simply leaves for a few games.

Even if we do end up playing great defense though, our offense looks to be absolutely atrocious. I have a feeling we could easily be bottom 5 in that regards. I mean, our offensive talent right now looks to easily be bottom 5.

To me, the only way the Rockets make the playoffs, short of some midseason blockbuster trade, is for Aaron Brooks to turn into Terrell Brandon type player.

 

I think Battier is the only irreplaceable part in our defensive juggernaut of a team. As you said, our defense lagged early in the season primarily because Battier was injured and then playing hobbled when he did return. As long as he is on this team though, it's a good bet that everyone else will hustle and make the necessary plays to keep our team in the top 10 defensively.

Ariza should be another defensive stalwart, but honestly I think our other wing options (whoever of White, Budinger, Taylor remains, Barry is still here, I'm not counting on T-Mac but he/whoever we trade for him will be in the mix too at some point) will be able to do a stand up job of maintaining the team defense, rotating in time, keeping proper spacing, etc, such that an injury to Ariza won't affect us too much.

Scola, Landry, and Brooks are poor defenders individually but understand our defensive scheme well enough. Injuries to them will only hurt us offensively. Hayes Lowry and Dorsey are above average defenders but certainly injuries to any one of them shouldn't be crippling by any means.

I love this team because Morey and Adelman had to go forward building it under the T-Mac/Yao Man-of-Glass mindset: we've been collecting assets from the beginning, not to package up to upgrade an important roster spot, but with the actual expectation that our team will be going 11-12 deep thanks to injuries in a particular year. Battier is the only essential, which is why I am so baffled by trade suggestions on his part.

True, if our goal is to get the #1 pick in the lottery then trading Battier should be our first task at hand. Otherwise, leave the man alone. He had an off-year last year because he was injured for most of it and rehabbing most of the offseason prior. If you want to trade him wait till the summer of 2010 when his value will have peaked after an amazing 2009-2010 campaign.

 

I don't believe in curses. The reason for our extremely bad injury luck is due to two reasons:
- YAO
- TMAC

Of course, there have been other injuries a la Battier, Deke, Sura, however our Rockets have been seen as an injury cursed team simply because it's two bestp layers are always injured.

Now that we are under the premise that they are injured, we can afford to be optimistic and assume that injuries should not mar us too much.

I'm just speaking logically here guys. So don't say 'I told you so' if we do get more injuries. Shyt Happens, DUH! However, logically we shouldn't see many injuries now that our most injury prone players are out.

 

Yes, with Hayes' ability to take charges I consider him an inside presence even though he doesn't block shots. A charge is as good as or better than a block so Hayes getting 15-20 minutes will be key. Also, he is pick and roll defense is top notch which is a plus over Yao.

If we can find someone else that will provide a defensive presence in the paint like Dorsey and a little more on offense than Hayes. Either way, I still think Hayes is about as valuable of a team player as their is in this league. Hopefully we have enough offensive firepower to allow Hayes/Dorsey to play enough minutes.

 

Yeah CH, Hayes can help a lot on defense in pick and roll. That's what the rockets defend a lot better without yao, but durvasa pulled up a stat about teams finishing close to the rim and it was amazing. We ha discussions about the layup drill. The rox are a better perimeter defensive team minus yao, but once teams get the ball inside, its over. Teams will convert a high % of shots inside.

 

Assuming we stay relatively injury-free, I think the Rockets are going to have a tough time maintaining their defensive efficiency (that is, top 5) in the upcoming season. Yao's presence on the defensive end of underrated. In past seasons where we maintained pretty well without him for large chunks of the season, we had Mutombo step up.

I expect defensive rebounding to take a hit, and interior FG% allowed to worsen. Still a good bet we'll be top 10, but top 5 will be tough. Especially because I'd expect Adelman will favor more up-tempo, offense-oriented lineups without McGrady/Yao.

With good health, I think we end up ranking somewhere in the 15-20 range on offense, and we rank somewhere in the 5-10 range on defense. So, best case we're 5th in defense and 15th in offense -- probably amounts to 45-48 wins. Worst case we're 10th in defense and 20th on offense -- probably closer to 33-36 wins. Just eyeballing those figures, by the way.

 

The Bobcats really wanted Landry last summer. Why don't we package Landry and another player maybe Dorsey or Barry for Tyson Chandler. I think that move was a move that made no sense for the Bobcats.Offensively both of those centers to me are the same except Okafor does not get hurt as often.I love Carl he is the only post player we have that will dunk on someone might be the only player that has the vertical to do that on the Rockets.But hey we need a center that can shot block that's why I would not mind it.

 

Chandler is making 12 million. You'd have to throw in a lot more than Dorsey/Barry to get the salaries to match. And doing so would make it more difficult for us to trade away smaller pieces to cut salary and get under the luxury tax.

 

I think whether or not the rockets remain a top 10 defensive team hinges on Andersen's play. If he is a very poor defender then we will suffer, assuming he starts and plays big minutes.

I get the feeling Adleman won't play Hayes enough to keep our defense great.

very nice thread, should be some good discussion.

 

Seeing as how we have a head coach with a system that has flourished on the offensive end throughout his career, I don't think we'll be a terrible offensive team. Though they aren't "superstars", we've still got a couple of guys that we can throw the ball to and that can create for themselves (Scola, Brooks), and the rest of our rotation aren't exactly scrubs offensively either (Battier, Ariza, Anderson, Landry, Lowry). Hayes is the only guy that is. I'd have to believe with Adelman's system that we'd be far superior to that Heat team and the rest of those bottom-dwellars...at that point in their careers Jones and 'Zo weren't exactly in their prime, and neither of them were great offensive players.

Defensively I think we'll be solid, but maybe not quite as good as we have been. Our frontcourt isn't exactly going to give people second-thoughts about attacking the basket.