Free Agency Has Not Been Kind to the Houston Rockets

[thacabbage]

With all the discussion these past few days with regards to the prudence in offering Trevor Ariza the full MLE, the doomsayers' reminiscence of Stromile Swift led me to thinking. There are particular episodes which are most often cited, but viewing the team’s transactional history as a whole even more greatly underscores how cruel free agency has been to the Houston Rockets.

Below I have included the notable offseason free agent acquisitions from each season since the last title in 1995. (I feel that everyone will agree that this is a fair and objective starting point for any analysis of the team's plight.) I have not included midseason pickups nor CBA/D-League fillers (more on this later.) I have also refrained from including Kelvin Cato, Moochie Norris, and Matt Maloney because although each was a disastrous signing, the two former were not obtained via free agency, while the antecedent clause disqualifies the inclusion of the latter.


1995-1996
Mark Bryant - Bryant was signed to start at power forward but if I recall correctly an early injury prevented that. He averaged 8 points and 4 rebounds in 71 games which came as a surprise to me because I don't remember him having any impact at all. He was gone the next year.

1996-1997
Kevin Willis, Brent Price - While a good signing in theory, Price contributed nothing to the team in his tenure due to injuries. Kevin Willis on the other hand was far and away the most valuable free agent signing in the post championship era.

1997-1998
no free agent acquisitions

1998-1999
Scottie Pippen, Antoine Carr - Carr was injured much of the season and gave the team next to nothing. Scottie Pippen was the most disastrous acquisition in Rockets history not only for his lack of production but because his subsequent trade to Portland spawned the Kelvin Cato legacy.

1999-2000
Shandon Anderson - Anderson was initially signed to a modest contract but with the understanding of later compensation. He was a huge disappointment and was later signed (to a monster deal) and traded to New York for Glen Rice.

2000-2001
Maurice Taylor - Like Anderson, Taylor was also initially signed to a modest contract with the understanding of later compensation. He was initially productive, but his later re-signing was disastrous and was one of the worst contracts in team history.

2001-2002
Glen Rice* - Glen Rice wasn't a free agent but rather was acquired in the Shandon Anderson trade. I have included him because he was the punition for having promised Shandon Anderson a raise. He gave the team nothing. Even more importantly, unloading him the following season (presumably to avoid the newly instituted luxury tax) cost the team a first round draft pick.

2002-2003
no free agent acquisitions

2003-2004
Jim Jackson, Eric Piatkowski, Adrian Griffin - Piatkowski and Griffin gave the team next to nothing. Jim Jackson was a solid contributor and easily the second best free agent signing after Kevin Willis.

2004-2005
Bobby Sura, Charlie Ward - Ward gave the team nothing. Sura was huge for one season but his body broke down and he was unable to play through the contract.

2005-2006
Derek Anderson, Stromile Swift - Derek Anderson was signed to supplant David Wesley in the starting lineup and was absolutely pitiful. Stromile Swift was one of the biggest disappointments in team history and is probably the poster boy for advocating the exercise of discretion in utilizing the full MLE.

2006-2007
Bonzi Wells – terrible.

2007-2008
Steve Francis - Gave the team nothing. Contrary to popular opinion, this move did hurt the team as trading him later in the year necessitated relinquishing Memphis' high 2nd round pick.

2008-2009
Brent Barry - Gave the team nothing and looks ready for retirement.


Summary

I did not include Eldridge Recasner, Sam Mack, Matt Maloney, Eddie Johnson, Moochie Norris, Chuck Hayes, and Von Wafer because while each was a major contributor, my intent was not an exhaustive critique of Rockets player personnel transactions. To do such a task proper diligence would require also factoring in to the ratio the numerous D-League and midseason minimum signings who contributed nothing such as Stanley Roberts and Rod Strickland. My intent was to analyze the team's spending of its major resources and its overall success rate in these acquisitions.

Not including Glen Rice, in the past 14 years, the team has made 17 off-season free agent acquisitions. Of these, by my evaluations, only 2 were wholly successful (Willis, Jim Jackson). Depending on your perspective, Bob Sura can also be considered a successful acquisition, but I withheld him as he did not finish through his contract. Even more importantly, his unavailability triggered the trading of Mike James for Rafer Alston which may have impacted the team's later playoff success. Such a trade might have been avoided had the resources initially spent on Sura been allocated towards a different point guard. Note that this is not a value judgment on Sura but rather on the overall success rating of the signing. I think Bob played great for us, but had the team been successful in landing Brent Barry (at that age), Derek Fisher, or Antonio Daniels, there would have been significant implications in their later success, in my opinion. Of course, this was not management's fault as no one could have predicted Bob’s injury, but the intent here is not to assign culpability. The purpose is to assess the impact of each acquisition. Some will also note that Sura was signed for significantly less than the respective asking prices of Brent Barry, Daniels, and Fisher. However, the counter-argument could be presented that had the team offered one of these three close to the full MLE rather than allocating the funds towards Sura, their later success would have been impacted. I realize that this analysis on the Sura acquisition is a bit sketchy and I am willing to consider him a successful signing if convinced accordingly.

Kevin Willis was far and away the most successful signing in the post championship era. Not only was he productive on the court, but he had liquid value in translating to two first round draft picks in his trade to Toronto. The point here is in assessing the team's ability to create a continuous flow of assets by which to remain competitive. For example, the Stromile Swift and Steve Francis signings had negative value in later trades. Ironically, the two picks which Willis was traded for later became Mirsad Turkcan and Bryce Drew. Even when the Rockets did something right, they somehow managed to screw it up.

Continuing the analysis, 4 of the 17 acquisitions signed contracts for equal or greater amounts than is being given to Ariza (Pippen, Taylor, Anderson, Swift). All 4 were complete and utterly disastrous signings.

The implications are not an attempt to foreshadow anything regarding Ariza. For one, I think this was a very good signing and more importantly, this is Daryl Morey's first major free agent acquisition (though the 3 he has made in Wells, Francis, Barry were failures.) It was only the thought of Ariza which triggered this inquiry. What I think the value in this is, in combination with the team's well documented draft day follies, is in understanding why the team hasn't been relevant for 12 years. Up until now, they simply have not created assets. Even worse (depending on your perspective) is that they have hit absolute homeruns in a handful of transactions (the Francis trade, drafting Mobley, winning the #1 pick, landing McGrady) which have made them good enough to always ensure relative mediocrity. They haven't had the luxury of stockpiling high lottery picks for quick recoveries as has been afforded to the other red headed step children of the league.

Trevor Ariza should be a major cornerstone for the team in its rebuilding era, but overall, free agency has not been kind to the Houston Rockets.

[kaleidosky]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to thacabbage again.

As good as the guy was for the franchise, this summary is as much a condemning of CD's GM-ability as anything, regardless of who else had their hands in the decision-making (Rudy, Les, JVG, etc.)


So I hope Morey's first big acquisition (Ariza) starts him off on the right foot!

[meh]

Uhh... I guess I'll post the obligatory

IN MOREY WE TRUST

[Pizza_Da_Hut]

I made a thread like this before, but I did not provide near the analysis you did. Amazing. I agree completely, the Rockets have never made that allstar aquisition via signing. Houston can draft well, they can trade well, it's just no superstar wants to play here. Blame it on the heat, blame it on the fact that most people have an anti-Texas bent, whatever, people don't want to play here, unless they're traded or drafted here. After that, people fall in love with the orginization.

[intergalactic]

As much as I loved Rudy as a coach, he and CD were terrible with contracts. Most of the problems you describe stem from the awful decisions Rudy and CD made giving out contracts that were way too long in the late 90's and early 00's. Because of those, we honestly haven't had much financial flexibility to sign anyone with an impact since Quitten. Everyone else has been pretty low risk.

I'm very happy with our management in the Morey era. Because of their 2nd round status, both Scola and Landry were essentially free agents, and we got both for excellent contracts.

I didn't want to lose Ron, but Ariza looks like a very good value signing. Even if he doesn't significantly improve, he's currently almost as productive as Shane and at pretty much the same salary.

[Big MAK]

Good post, interesting facts. Never really thought about it, but yeah, we suck in the free agency. Hopefully Ariza will be the first in awhile to have been a good move. And hopefully more to come!

[The_Yoyo]

as others have pointed out a lot of the moves during the CD/Rudy days in free agency were all about getting that big name/splash which did not pan out at all.


Free Agent acquisitions under the CD/JVG got a lot better ( I really do believe the coaches play a huge role in what the GM does) you saw some low-risk contracts or reasonable contracts (swift for the MLE when he expected to get 9-10 million) almost all those players fizzled but it was at little cost to the Rockets unlike the moves under the Rudy regime.

That trend carries onto today with Morey and Adelman.

Ariza is the free major free agent move Morey has done we'll see how that pans out

[MadMax]

one of the best posters here.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to thacabbage again.

[DaDakota]

Originally Posted by meh Uhh... I guess I'll post the obligatory IN MOREY WE TRUST

Steve Francis, Brent Barry.....so far his trades have been pretty good, but his free agent signings have been Meh.

DD

[Shaud]

Must spread rep

[Gimmmethemike]

Originally Posted by MadMax one of the best posters here. You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to thacabbage again.

Thacabbage most def is the best poster on here.

[stipendlax]

Originally Posted by DaDakota Steve Francis, Brent Barry.....so far his trades have been pretty good, but his free agent signings have been Meh. DD

Two very low risk acquisitions with possibilities of contributing. Not a big deal.

[Joshfast]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to thacabbage again.

Thanks for the read! Going forward from here I trust Morey in what he is doing. I don't envy his job this off season though - the Rockets are a mess and ticket sells if Yao and McGrady are out for the year are going to go way SOUTH.

2010 here we come!

[Carl Herrera]

A few thoughts:

1. Free agency hasn't been kind to a lot of teams. Rockets have been lucky in recent (i.e. Morey) years that they are making $2-3 million per year mistakes rather than $10 million+ ones (for example, I'd bet the teams aren't too happy about Maggette, Brand and Baron Davis nowadays).

2. Steve Francis signing did hurt the team in terms of giving up Memphis's 2nd rounder. We do, however, now know what the value of that pick is: $2.5 million (what it, apparently, cost Les to buy each of the Taylor and Llull picks).

[CheezeyBoy22]

I think Morey has done a great job overall. I know that there are few moves that just didn't work out for us but I trust in his overall body of work.

There's a lot to be done between now and 2010. Let's give Morey time to work his magic.

[DieHard Rocket]

I remember being so pumped to get Derek Anderson and Stromile Swift. If both of those guys had lived up to the hype we could've made a serious run that year. I remember watching local sports stations catching Swift coming in from the airport like we just signed Kevin Garnett or something.

Bonzi was also pretty exciting, but went downhill quickly.

[rn_xw]

Is Yao officially out or is he still weighing his decision on surgery or recover by naturla?

[sbyang]

Great analysis.

If you research all the guys that signed for MLE money in this decade, you will find an alarming rate of failure. The only successful guys I can think of are Billups and Hedo. Ariza does have something in common with those 2: his age, then again Swift was young too so who knows.

[spaceage808]

good stuff, thanks

[vince]

Thanks for putting a good read...