Hi, Clutchfans. I'm a very big stats nerd and rarely make any threads but I felt compelled to share my thoughts on our latest acquisition. My analysis is based on his 08-09 stats. The Basics: Per 36 stats: 13.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 2.5 steals, 1.6 turnovers Pace-adjusted stats: 15.5 PER, .544 TS%, 10 Reb%, 10.4 Ast%, 3.5 Stl%, 0.9 Blk%, 11.5 To%, 16.7 Usg% Overall, Ariza is a good efficiency, average usage guy. He rarely turns the ball over, shoots okay, and doesn't use a whole lot of possessions. He's not much of a rebounder for his size, not much of a play-maker. He did however, shoot exceptionally well in the play-offs (61 TS%) while turning the ball over a bit more, which makes sense because he was playing the best defenses (including our own). So the above stats are what I like to call the "results" stats: they show what his contribution on offense aggregates to. To me, they are not very useful unless you understand how he arrives at those numbers. Let's break down his offense and see how he arrives here. Offense: Ariza has a healthy mix of inside outside game. He shoots 56% as outside jumpers (.420 eFG%) and 44% (.625 eFG%) inside. He does not shoot a whole lot of threes and hits about 31% when he does. 78% of his jumpers were assisted which indicates that he's a catch and shooter. However, only 44% of his inside shots are assisted: he drives to the hoop and makes a good amount of them as his percentages show(!). When he drives, his shots are rarely blocked (15%) and he draws a fair amount of fouls (11.7%). Again, he's not a passer, he's either going to shoot or drive (think Wafer with more driving). Overall, he's a very competent offensive player and comparing him to Artest, he provides better efficiency but lower possessions. One would assume his usage rate will go up to the low 20's as he'll have a bigger role on this team. Let's hope that his efficiency holds up. Defense: To me, defense is Ariza's absolute calling card. He's simply a defensive stud. To demonstrate, he had only .3 less defensive win shares than Artest while playing 457 minutes less. He creates a ton of turnovers using his long arms (steals 3.5% of possessions, deflections) and he does it by reading the passing lanes not gambling on the ball, as evidenced by his crucial steals against the Nuggets. He has a solid DRtg of 102, the lowest on a very good defensive team, tied with another solid defender, Lamar Odom. The Lakers hold their opponents to .6 less points per 100 possessions when Ariza is on the court. This number is actually pretty impressive considering the guys he's replacing are great defenders (Odom, Bryant). His length gives opposing players a difficult time to drive around and he does a solid job of funneling his man to help defenders. Conclusion: Overall, I think Ariza will seamlessly fit into our system with his defense and above average offense. I think he's already as good of a defender as Artest and we can groom him to eventually replace Battier. If he could improve his passing and ball handling, therefore increasing his usage rate in the 20's (there's plenty of reason to believe he'll improve, he just turned 24 and his turnover rate has been going down every year), he could be great on offense as well. I personally don't think the guy is a bargain at the MLE and Morey made the right choice, getting a younger guy whose production pretty much equals Artest's for the same price.
Some more on Ariza from Pat Zipfel (Rockets advance scout) and Jason Friedman from Rockets.com: [rquoter] Trevor Ariza (Unrestricted) Zipfel says: Young, athletic, improving player who is long and active. He is a runner, cutter, slasher, and gets on the glass. Likes to ball fake and escape to his right. Can pass off the dribble and his perimeter shooting is improving. Defensively, possesses length, quick feet + active hands, and will get on the floor. Effective defensively for steals and outstanding rebounder for his position. Jason says: What's not to like about Trevor Ariza? He's young, long, athletic, a lock-down defender and can shoot the three - all traits he put on display during a fantastic postseason performance which went a long way in helping the Lakers grab the NBA title this June. For all those reasons, Los Angeles has made re-signing him their No. 1 offseason priority and though Ariza has said there will be no hometown discount, it would be shocking to see him suit up in anything but the purple and gold next season. [/rquoter]
Thanks for sharing your analysis of him. I was looking for that. Going beyond the stats,it will be interesting to see how he reacts under pressure. It's going to be a challenge without Kobe and co. Only time will tell,but I would like to ask you,how do think he will do here.
Hmm.. I find myself disagreeing with the scout. I don't see how he's an "outstanding rebounder for his position". 10.1 rebound percentage doesn't seem to great for a 6'8" forward... then again, they have some good rebounders playing alongside Ariza (Bynum, Gasol, Odom) to take away from him... I think he'll be good at chasing down long rebounds that the Rockets cause.
I think the stats with his tenure with the Lakers shouldn't be examined too deeply....he was playing with Kobe, Gasol (the two stars of the team who take the most shots). He is FORCED to play off of them and become a role player. But now that he is with the Rockets, he will be free to do more, he will be given the green light in hopes of him having a mini-breakout season (15-16ppg). I can definitely see that happening, he has untapped potential and hopefully Adelman can get the best out of him.
We do not know much about Ariza's offensive game. He had a real raw game out of college and got drafted in the 2nd round by NY, then traded to Orlando and eventually LAL. I'm not certain about his tenure in Orlando, but I'm fairly certain he wasn't the first or 2nd option. As a Laker, he was the last option on the team in terms of offense, there were so many guys ahead of him that could create shots or were proven. We do not know how much this guy's offensive game has improved since he's been in the league. Maybe he's got a few moves that he couldn't really show because he was on the Lakers. With the way things are set up for next season, we will definitely be asking Ariza to do more on offense than what he's done in the past. He's going to have to create some scoring chances for himself. Maybe he'll develop some moves over the summer, maybe he already has some moves from watching Kobe for 2 years. We signed the guy for his production with the Lakers, we're going to ask him to bring more than that to our team. There is a chance that he'll outperform his contract. Even if he doesn't get any better offensively, he's still worth what we've given him because he is only 24 and his athleticism won't be gone at the end of his deal.
I think all stats could be examined deeply, he played enough of minutes to get a meaningful analysis. I absolutely agree with you that he could have a "breakout" season. This to me, means getting his usage rate up to the lower 20's while keeping his efficiency, while continuing to play his studly defense. This would result in a high teens to low 20's PER, which would be great for the Rockets.
Plus, Ariza is younger AND cheaper than Artest. And while he doesn't bring the same tough attitude that Artest did, he's also not likely to have a mental meltdown at a critical moment. Best of all, 3 years down the road, Artest will almost certainly be less of a player than he is now, while Ariza will hopefully improve in that span. I wonder if Morey might have been looking at this switching of players all along. We never heard much (anything?) about what he was offering Ron, so maybe after he heard about Yao, he decided to let Artest walk and go after Ariza. Doesn't this hurt the Lakers' chances of re-signing Odumb, though?
I disagree. Yes, both are more defensive players but they are very different in how they get the job done. Battier doesn't cause a lot of turnovers but ingeniously forces opponents to tough shots. Ariza plays the passing lanes and funnels his defenders to uncomfortable situations to cause turnovers. I think the two will complement each other very well and will continue the Rockets' stellar defense on the wings without losing much by letting Artest go. Offensively, all Battier does is shoot 3's in corners, while Ariza has a very well-rounded driving game.
No, Ariza can drive and finish pretty well. A little quicker and incisive on the offensive end. Shane is of course the better defender. Ariza gives us a good cutter who can be found easily for finishes closer to the basket. I think if he can build up his confidence and ball-handling skills with us, he'll be a terrific player to have for the next season and more.
Remember, when we had 4 pgs, Mike James, Steve Francis, Alston, and Brooks? It was a setup for a Mike James trade. 2 Shane Battiers. I smell a setup for a Shane Battier trade.
It does seem like we do have an overload of wings... I think Battier and Ariza are perfect complements though defensively, and to a less degree on offense as well. This acquisition would've been so much more exciting if Yao was healthy...
