The Myth of the Rockets and 2010 Free Agency

Last year, I started a thread about how the Rockets had lined themselves up nicely to make a major splash in free agency in the summer of 2010 and that the team would be able to bring in a max salary player from among potentially the best free agent class of the last 20 years. However, subsequent to that thread, the Rockets traded for Ron Artest, and those long term plans seemingly changed.

Yes, I know. The Rockets are still fighting in the playoffs, and threads about offseason activities are not supposed to be at the forefront of the BBS right now. But given all the threads I've seen this week about how the Rockets could really use a healthy McGrady (which they could) and all the replies saying that the team should just grab someone to replace Tracy in 2010(ranging from Dwyane Wade to Joe Johnson), I felt that I needed to comment on the "misinformation" relating to this issue.

Here goes.

Unless the Rockets want to completely gut their team and tank (or at least not fully compete for) the 2009-10 season, and especially if they want to keep Ron Artest, THE ROCKETS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SIGN A STAR PLAYER IN FREE AGENCY IN 2010.

The biggest misconception around this BBS is that, just because McGrady's $23M salary is coming off the books in 2010, it means that the Rockets can replace him with another $23M in salary. Not so. Not even close.

The NBA has a "soft cap" salary structure. This means that, while there is a set salary cap figure each year, teams can go over that number to re-sign their own players. Also, once a player is signed to a long-term contract, that player's salary typically increases at a greater rate than the salary cap does. This means that for a team that has a decent amount of cap room, all else equal (meaning that no free agents are signed and no player contracts end), that team will have less and less cap room each year.

Because of the large salaries of McGrady and Yao, the Rockets will not have any salary cap room this summer to attract a major free agent. This means that the only way to keep the team as competitive next year is to re-sign Ron Artest. If the Rockets let Artest go, with McGrady out until at least February or March 2010, the team will struggle to even make the playoffs in the competitive Western Conference. So let's assume that Les Alexander, Daryl Morey and Rick Adelman all want Artest back.

For purposes of my argument, I will assume that the franchise views the following 7 players as the core of the team: Yao Ming, Ron Artest, Luis Scola, Shane Battier, Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry and Kyle Lowry. I'm not even assuming that the franchise holds Tracy McGrady in the same light, even though I think they do. I'm not even assuming the team will re-sign Von Wafer, who will basically cost the team double, since the team will be crossing well into luxury tax territory once Artest is re-signed. If the Rockets want to keep even just these 7 players on the team beyond 2010, then there is NO WAY the team can sign a max salary free agent, or even a high salary free agent.

Assuming that Ron Artest agrees to a multi-year contract this summer that pays him exactly $8M per season (which is very low and is unlikely to actually happen - even Daryl Morey isn't THAT good), then the combined salaries of Yao, Ron, Battier, Brooks and Landry will be about $38.5M. Remember, this is assuming an almost unrealistically low salary for Artest and no Von Wafer. This also assumes that the team will not pick up Chuck Hayes's team option and will waive Joey Dorsey (and his partially guaranteed salary for 2010-11).

Luis Scola (who will be a restricted free agent in 2010) will have a "cap hold" equal to 200% of his 2009-10 salary, or about $6.8M, until he is actually re-signed or waived. See

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http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q30

. Assuming that Scola's market value is over $7M per season (which will probably be the case), the most favorable scenario for the Rockets' ability to sign a major free agent is to not re-sign Scola until AFTER the free agent is signed. This $6.8M cap hold brings the team salary for its "core" players up to $47.3M.

Kyle Lowry (who will also be a restricted free agent in 2010) will have a "cap hold" equal to 300% of his 2009-10 salary, or about $6.1M, until he is re-signed or waived. See the link in the immediately preceding paragraph. We can assume that Lowry's market value will be lower than $6.1M (let's assume $4M), so the team would be best served to re-sign him BEFORE any outside free agents are signed. A $4M salary for Lowry would bring the team salary for its "core" players up to about $51.3M.

Now, throw in the salary for the Rockets' 2010 first round pick (let's assume it's a late first rounder making about $1.1M). That's just 8 players. According to salary cap rules, if a team has less than 12 players heading into free agency, then a "roster charge" (equal to the rookie minimum salary for each open roster spot below 12 left on the team) is added to the team's salary cap BEFORE a free agent can be signed. See

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http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q14

. The rookie minimum salary for the 2010-11 season is $473,604. This would bring the Rockets total team salary up to about $54.3M.

The salary cap for the 2009-10 season is expected to actually DROP for the first time due to the current economic crisis. The number is currently estimated to be about $57.3M. Because the economy is expected to continue to suffer over the next 12 months, it stands to reason that the salary cap will not go up significantly in 2010-11.

What this all means is that the Rockets likely won't have more than about $3-4M in salary cap room in 2010. That's less than the MLE. Hell, the Rockets will probably renounce their cap space in favor of the MLE. Keep in mind, this doesn't even factor in the Rockets using its MLE in 2009 or signing any other players.

Bottom line: Don't delude yourselves into thinking that the team can just replace McGrady via free agency. Ain't gonna happen. Also, while Tracy does have an expiring contract, it is so large that the Rockets will be unable to make any sort of trade that doesn't involve the team taking back one or two REALLY bad long-term contracts. I just don't see the team doing that. The two best REALISTIC scenarios for the Rockets are as follows:

(1) (Wishful Thinking And Not Even That Great) If McGrady's injury is serious enough, and if his rehab does not progress as hoped for, and if an independent, league-appointed physician rules that Tracy's injury is "career-ending", then the Rockets will be entitled to some luxury tax relief equal to half his salary, together with a medical salary cap exception equal to the MLE (actually, the lesser of half his salary or the MLE, which is the MLE). If the franchise wants to gamble this summer, then the team could re-sign Von Wafer and cross its collective fingers that this actually happens. But having another MLE isn't really going to put the Rockets over the top. Plus, the granting of this "additional MLE" would happen no sooner than March 2010, so it won't happen in enough time to help the Rockets in the 2010 playoffs (since most really good players won't be sitting on the waiver wire at that time).

(2) (The Best Possible Scenario For The Success Of The Houston Rockets) If Tracy McGrady recovers from his injury, can round back into form over the last few weeks of the 2009-10 regular season and playoffs, and re-signs with the Rockets for a significantly reduced salary. If he is even 70% of his former (healthy) self, he will be worth in excess of the MLE. He will also be better than ANY free agent the Rockets could possibly sign.

Rockets fans need to face the hard truth. No Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson or even Ben Gordon is going to walk through that door. The Rockets CANNOT keep this team (minus McGrady) in tact AND sign any of those guys. Even trading a guy like Battier wouldn't create enough cap space to sign a big-time free agent. The best way for the Rockets to contend for an NBA championship is for Tracy McGrady to remain a Houston Rocket beyond 2010.

Consider this myth debunked.

 

If you read the beginning of my post, you'd see that I appropriately qualified my argument:

So, you're saying that the Rockets would rather completely gut the team, trade Battier, only sign players to one-year deals next year, waive Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry, and hold out hope that Lebron James or Dwyane Wade would choose to play in Houston with Yao Ming, Aaron Brooks and NOBODY ELSE instead of signing elsewhere?

That just doesn't sound like something Daryl Morey would do in a million years.

 

Hahaha. I know, it just didn't sound right when I wrote it. Believe me, I'm not a McGrady apologist who thinks he can do no wrong. But I am a realist. And the most realistic way for the Rockets to win a championship in the Yao Ming era is for them to do it with McGrady as a contributing member of the team.

Joke all you want about Tracy. Kick him to the curb if you don't like him. But the team will not be as competitive, and there won't be a replacement waiting in the wings to help lead the Rockets.

These are just the cold, hard facts.