1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[Holinger] Behind all the elbows and ejections lies a more important issue: L.A. may

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by steefrancis, May 7, 2009.

  1. steefrancis

    steefrancis Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2003
    Messages:
    211
    Likes Received:
    1
    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playo...?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090507


    While the Lakers wait to see if they'll have their starting backcourt for Game 3 on Friday (ESPN, 9:30 ET), let's take a moment to discuss something that's receiving very little attention this morning:

    Daily Gems

    Here are John Hollinger's top five NBA observations for Thursday. Insider Insider

    * All-Defensive selections are offensive
    * Proposing a voluntary ejection rule
    * Resurrection of Boston's bench
    * Positives for Orlando despite loss
    * T-Wolves close to naming a GM?

    The basketball game.

    L.A.'s 114-98 win became little more than a backdrop to all the screaming over elbows and cheap shots and such, but it was very interesting in its own right. The Lakers made a big run, the Rockets battled back, and so it went for most of the first three and a half quarters before tempers started flaring.

    And in the end, the upshot of it all is that, despite the win, the Lakers should be even more worried now than they were after Game 1. And it's not just because they might be a man or two down in Game 3. It's the implications for the series as a whole that should have them concerned.

    Let's run down the list, shall we:

    L.A. made all the adjustments

    Phil Jackson finally got the memo that the way you beat Yao Ming is by using smaller, quicker players to front him on offense and attack him on defense. The result was four field goal attempts and five fouls for Yao. This at least proves that Jackson's more flexible than Nate McMillan, who apparently was waiting for Game 12 to make that adjustment in the first round.

    The Lakers' lineup shake-up appeared to catch the Rockets off guard -- witness that 39-25 first quarter. Yes, Houston knew it was coming, but it's one thing to know about it and another to face it in person.

    Here's how much L.A. shut down Yao: Until 6:56 remained in the fourth quarter, his only two shot attempts came on putbacks. For the entire part where the game was still in question, he had zero shot attempts from the post. (That first shot attempt from down low ended up being notable for another reason: it was the play where Kobe Bryant elbowed Ron Artest.)

    But even after playing that card, and playing a desperation game at home, the Lakers didn't exactly land a haymaker. And now it's Houston's turn to adjust. They'll exploit the back side of the defense more now that they know what's coming, reversing the ball to get Yao open. Either that or they'll catch Luis Scola popping free at the top like they did in the Portland series.

    The bottom line is that in Game 3, it's far more likely the Lakers are the ones caught off guard, because the element of surprise is gone. Yao may not go off they way he did in Game 1, but I guarantee he'll get more than four shots.

    Kobe made a bunch of very difficult shots

    The good news for L.A. is that Kobe scored 40 points by making a bunch of shots that few players in the world could convert. The bad news for L.A. is that Kobe had to take those shots in the first place.

    Bryant shot 12-of-20 on jumpers outside the paint, most of which were contested by the long arms of Shane Battier. That's amazing. It's also almost certainly unsustainable. Nobody shoots 60 percent on midrange jumpers for very long, which is why Houston has tried so hard to force Bryant into those shots in the first place. In Game 1, for instance, Bryant was 8-for-23 on the same shots.

    For the season, Bryant shot 42.4 percent on long 2s and 62.2 percent at the basket. He may have won the battle, but the Rockets are winning the war by dictating the type of shot attempts he gets. If Bryant can't get to the rim and the free throw line more often, he's going to be hard-pressed to continue scoring at this rate.

    Houston's bench is outperforming L.A.'s

    L.A.'s incredible shrinking bench keeps providing less as the season gets deeper. Andrew Bynum was approximately worthless for a second straight game, picking up three fouls in nine minutes while going scoreless. Sasha Vujacic has succeeded in baiting Von Wafer into off-ball offensive fouls but provided little else, as the Lakers' guard committed a Bynum-esque seven fouls in 24 minutes through the first two games of the series and is struggling with his shot.

    Luke Walton returned Wednesday night but also missed several wide-open Js, leaving Shannon Brown once again as the lone Laker reserve to provide a positive spark. Of course, depending on how NBA executive vice president Stu Jackson rules, Brown might be pressed into service as a starter for Game 3.

    Meanwhile, Houston's bench got the Rockets back in the game in the second quarter and nearly did it again in the fourth. Carl Landry absolutely destroyed the Lakers inside, finishing with 21 points, in spite of missing six foul shots, and 10 boards. Chuck Hayes hasn't done much offensively but has been a huge presence defending the post, continually denying Pau Gasol prime position and controlling the glass. Even Wafer played very well prior to his little snit with Rick Adelman, scoring seven points in nine minutes.

    Houston still scored

    The Rockets weren't a good offensive team in the regular season. They ranked only 17th in offensive efficiency on the season and won mainly because of a suffocating defense. Playing on the road against an elite team, we'd expect them to struggle to produce offense.

    But even with their best offensive player being denied shot attempts, and Wafer being banished to the locker room after just nine minutes, and Lowry firing up bricks, the Rockets still put together another decent offensive game.

    This gets back to something we heard muttered during the Utah series: L.A. has lost some of its defensive intensity. And while the Lakers proved Wednesday night that their elbows remain sharp, they have some work to do when it comes to actually getting stops.

    Houston scored 198 points in two games in the Lakers' building. In the 29 games prior, they'd scored 98 or more in regulation only eight times. All of those games were against teams far below the Lakers in the defensive standings: Phoenix twice, Portland three times, the Clippers, Sacramento and Golden State.

    The last time the Rockets scored 98 points against a team in the top nine in defensive efficiency rankings was Jan. 19 against Denver. The last time they did it on the road was Nov. 22 in Orlando. That was 76 games ago, people.

    But they did it twice in a row against the Lakers. Yes, the games were on the fast-paced side, but the Rockets were reasonably efficient, too. In both games, they scored more than a point per possession, and did so despite a rash of turnovers (38 combined) and mediocre 3-point shooting (14-of-42).

    As a result, the defense has to be No. 1 on the Lakers' list of concerns as the series moves to Houston. Yes, this is a Series now, with a capital S. And not just because of the bad blood from Game 2. Houston played L.A. to a draw on its soil, and now it's incumbent on the Lakers to win at least once in Texas. I'm still picking the Lakers to advance, but based on how Game 2 played out, it's not going to be easy.
     
  2. pongd

    pongd Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2007
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    7
    i thought nate did a good job on yao after game 1.
     
  3. WeMissDekeMan

    WeMissDekeMan Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2009
    Messages:
    1,128
    Likes Received:
    3
    Those numbers have gotten him no where in life and still hasn't gotten him anywhere. All he does is listen to myths and after that all he does is look at stats that he created himself.

    I'd rather listen to another ESPN guy, but at least this time he had a solid take.
     
  4. steefrancis

    steefrancis Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2003
    Messages:
    211
    Likes Received:
    1
    sorry missed some of it


    should read

    Behind all the elbows and ejections lies a more important issue: L.A. may be in trouble
     
  5. jedicro

    jedicro Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2008
    Messages:
    1,749
    Likes Received:
    51
    Good article. Always like hollinger.

    I said it through the entirety of game 2. Let Kobe have that smug little face and primp himself. We're winning that battle by forcing him to take that shot 90% of the time.
     
  6. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2008
    Messages:
    26,390
    Likes Received:
    29,569
    Great article; I have few quibbles with it. I am less optimistic than Hollinger is, but I'm glad someone is at least looking at it objectively.
     
  7. tmac2k8

    tmac2k8 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2008
    Messages:
    2,211
    Likes Received:
    263
    He's got some numbers wrong, final score was 111 - 98...not 114-98 and it wasn't game 12 that mcmillan adjusted..it was game 2
     
  8. WeMissDekeMan

    WeMissDekeMan Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2009
    Messages:
    1,128
    Likes Received:
    3
    He was too bust looking at his PER stats to spell check. I wish we got guys like JVG or Hubie Brown writing online articles instead of stat junkies like Hollinger.
     
  9. jedicro

    jedicro Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2008
    Messages:
    1,749
    Likes Received:
    51
    He just wrote an extremely positive article about us and outside of a few slight (and most importantly: inconsequential) errors it was spot on. Give the guy a break.
     
  10. WeMissDekeMan

    WeMissDekeMan Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2009
    Messages:
    1,128
    Likes Received:
    3
    I said it was a solid article, I'm just saying it might not be worth reading because you know John Hollinger wrote it.
     
  11. steefrancis

    steefrancis Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2003
    Messages:
    211
    Likes Received:
    1
    i think its an awesome objective article....
     
  12. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    7,967
    Likes Received:
    2,549
    You would have to teach Hubie how to use a computer first. :D
     
  13. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2003
    Messages:
    12,651
    Likes Received:
    2,919
    Amen to all that. This is precisely why you don't need to double Kobe.
     
  14. jedicro

    jedicro Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2008
    Messages:
    1,749
    Likes Received:
    51
    I think that's exactly why you want to read it.

    Most analysts would say, "oh oh well, Houston is screwed. The real Kobe has shown up"

    Whereas Hollinger points out that performance is fools gold. If their season rests on Kobe's ability to hit those tough shots that even he misses at an alarming clip, then they may not be the favorites everyone thinks they are. Spot on analysis.
     
  15. shortfuse3

    shortfuse3 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2008
    Messages:
    3,912
    Likes Received:
    59
    this is whats going to happen the rest of the series. our starters will get outscored 40-20 in the fi rst quarter. then our bench will come in and get us back in the game. then we lose in the 3rd quarter .
     
  16. Dave_78

    Dave_78 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2006
    Messages:
    10,809
    Likes Received:
    373
    The point about Kobe is the truth. The Lakers will not beat the Rockets with Kobe taking 18-20 foot contested jump shots. Kobe can't get by Shane. I think it's a combination of Kobe being a bit older and Shane being so focused but Kobe just can't beat him off the dribble anymore.

    Keep shooting those jumpers Kobe and enjoy your summer vacation. It's starts this month :)
     
  17. Cannonball

    Cannonball Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2006
    Messages:
    21,652
    Likes Received:
    1,910
    They've gotten him a career and a job at ESPN. You know who he is. Those numbers have gotten him pretty far.
     
  18. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2006
    Messages:
    5,928
    Likes Received:
    4,260
    I don't know why people hate Hollinger so much. It seems like he is mostly pretty accurate in his prognostications - certainly more accurate than the average former player/analyst. He knows a lot about basketball in general - not just stats. He catches a lot of guff though...

    I would figure most Rockets(and Celtics fans for that matter), would realize that the stats based approach has been pretty successful so far and is being turned to more and more by NBA execs who's money is on the line with their picks. Clearly it's proving to be a great addition to traditional scout based rankings. I don't think there will ever be a definitive formula to determine true value, but I think it helps the average team from making stretches by comparing apples to oranges.

    ...besides I'm sick of the scouts based approach that values upside over actual production - look at some of the turkeys taken(even by our very own Rockets) over the last ten years. People talk about late round steals but they are only there because scouts prefer 7 ft big men with limited skills and turnover prone athletic swingmen who never saw a bad shot. I think the stats based approach is there to counter the skewered scouts based approach.

    {gets off soapbox}
     
  19. DudeWah

    DudeWah Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    9,643
    Likes Received:
    3,523
    <br>
    The "game 12" reference was an obvious sarcastic stab at Nate McMillan being completely confused on how to stop Yao.
     
  20. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2002
    Messages:
    34,735
    Likes Received:
    33,803
    The "Herd" guy on ESPN radio was focused on 44%. When LA shoots less than that, they usually lose this year. The Rockets hold people to under 44% in the Toyota Center, so it's the main thing he would watch for the next two games. We are playing really good D, and that could continue to do good things for us. The non-Kobe Lakers have no real guts. The Fisher cheap shot does not equal grit or guts or anything but idiocy.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now